NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 28: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +600 (Wizards vs. Cavaliers)

Donovan Mitchell is one of our best bets to score the first basket against the Washington Wizards at +600 odds. The Cleveland Cavaliers have been one of the NBA’s strongest teams at the opening tip, with Jarrett Allen providing a significant advantage at center court.

Allen has consistently ranked among the league’s better jump-ball competitors, giving Cleveland a strong chance to secure the first possession and get Mitchell involved immediately.

Donovan Mitchell went to work in the first half 🕷️

22 PTS (7-9 FGM)
3 REB
2 STL

Cavs lead at the break on ESPN! pic.twitter.com/agPL8wan5Q

— NBA (@NBA) October 23, 2026

Mitchell’s scoring ability makes this an appealing wager. He averaged 27.9 points per game during the 2025-26 regular season, establishing himself as Cleveland’s primary offensive weapon. His explosive first step, ability to penetrate the defense, and confidence shooting from beyond the arc give him multiple ways to finish the Cavaliers’ opening possession.

With Allen likely winning the tip, Mitchell should have an opportunity to attack before Washington’s defense gets organized. He is comfortable creating his own shot and has the scoring instincts to capitalize on an early mismatch. Cleveland can look to him immediately rather than waste its opening possession.

At +600, Mitchell offers excellent value for your best NBA first scorer prop bets today.

Stephon Castle +800 (Spurs vs. Jazz)

Stephon Castle is a high-value first-basket pick against the Utah Jazz at +800 odds. The San Antonio Spurs have a major advantage at the opening tip with Victor Wembanyama at center court. At 7-foot-4, Wembanyama has the size and reach to secure the first possession, creating an immediate scoring opportunity for Castle and the Spurs.

Castle is coming off an impressive start to his second NBA season, averaging 18.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game through his first four appearances in 2026-27. He has been aggressive offensively, including a 24-point performance in the season opener against Oklahoma City and 19 points against Dallas.

Stephon Castle steals it and throws down a windmill slam 🔥

San Antonio leads in the first half of preseason action! pic.twitter.com/y6Mc3msaDc

— NBA (@NBA) October 17, 2026

He can attack the rim, create his own shot off the dribble, and capitalize on defensive lapses before Utah gets organized. With Castle looking to build on his strong start, the Spurs have a reliable scoring option who can make an immediate impact.

Wembanyama’s potential advantage on the opening tip strengthens the case. At +800, we’re backing Castle’s aggressive approach and early-season scoring form to deliver excellent value for NBA first basket picks tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.