NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 9: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Ty Jerome +550 (Grizzlies vs. Raptors)

Ty Jerome is off to a tremendous start and deserves consideration as one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight against Toronto.

The Memphis Grizzlies have a major advantage in the opening tip with Zach Edey in the middle. Edey’s size gives him an excellent chance to secure the first possession, putting Memphis in a good position to score early.

TY JEROME EXPLODES FOR 40 AGAIN.

Despite the Grizzlies' first loss of the season, @tyjerome_ drops his second 40-piece of the season (and of his career) in an OT thriller against the Pelicans.

40 PTS | 5 REB | 5 AST | 5 3PM pic.twitter.com/T4Am6UAZK0

— NBA (@NBA) November 3, 2026

Jerome has been one of the NBA’s biggest offensive surprises this season, averaging 26.6 points and 5.3 assists per game while shooting 50.3% from the field. He’s also averaging 18.4 field-goal attempts per game, showing just how aggressively he’s attacking and how central he has become to Memphis’ offense.

Jerome has already recorded one first basket this season, and his combination of scoring volume and confidence makes him an appealing option at +550.

Victor Wembanyama +310 (Spurs vs. Suns)

Victor Wembanyama is one of my favorite NBA first basket props tonight against Phoenix. The San Antonio Spurs have a significant advantage at the opening tip with Wembanyama’s 7-foot-4 frame giving him a major edge over opposing centers. He’s been dominant in jump balls this season, winning nine of his first 10, giving San Antonio an excellent chance to secure the opening possession.

CAREER NIGHT FOR VICTOR WEMBANYAMA 🚨

🤯 52 PTS (CAREER-HIGH)
🤯 24 REB (CAREER-HIGH)
🤯 8 BLK

FIRST PLAYER WITH 50+ PTS, 20+ REB, 5+ BLK SINCE BOB MCADOO IN 1974. pic.twitter.com/lHzUhYYSTz

— NBA (@NBA) November 5, 2026

Wembanyama is absolutely on fire offensively, averaging 29.1 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per game. He’s shooting efficiently and has been incredibly aggressive, recording at least 29 points in four of his last five games.

That stretch includes a monster 52-point, 24-rebound performance against Dallas, followed by 30 points against Sacramento and 29 against Portland. Even better, Wembanyama has already scored the first basket in four of his 10 starts this season.

He’s clearly comfortable attacking immediately, and with the Spurs likely to win the opening tip, +310 is a strong price to back him to score first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.