The DP World Tour Championship heads to Jumeirah Golf Estates this week for the season finale, with the Race to Dubai title set to be decided over four days on the Earth Course. The top 50 available players in the Race to Dubai standings have qualified, so we’re set for a fantastic finish to the season, with plenty at stake at the top of the rankings. It’s the second and final event of the DP World Tour Play-offs, with a $10 million prize fund on offer.
The Earth Course is a stunning track and a proper championship test. A par-72 up at around 7,706 yards, means it’s a lengthy layout that demands plenty from the players, particularly off the tee. Designed by Greg Norman, it features immaculate fairways, strategically placed bunkers and some testing water hazards, particularly around the closing stretch of the holes. It’s a course where distance is certainly an advantage, but positioning and quality iron play are equally important. You need to give yourself plenty of opportunities, because the scoring can get low and there is little room for missed opportunities.
It’s a deep field of quality, with Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Tommy Fleetwood amongst those involved. Rory, Rahm and Matt Fitzpatrick are all three-time winners of this event, which tells you plenty about the quality of players who tend to thrive here. Rory in particular always seems a very happy man in this part of the world. He clearly enjoys playing in the Middle East, has an excellent record in Dubai and, having finished third in Abu Dhabi last week, you’d have to think he’ll be going close again. He’s also chasing another Race to Dubai title, so there is plenty of motivation, which is generally something he needs.
Jon Rahm arrives in fantastic form after winning so well in Abu Dhabi last week. Furthermore, he was impressive throughout, finishing two shots clear of Tyrrell Hatton at 23 under par, and looked a class above at times. His power is a huge asset on a golf course of this length, and when his iron play is as sharp as it was last week, he’s an extremely difficult player to beat. He’s also a three-time winner of this event, so he knows exactly what it takes to get the job done here. His approach play was notably good last week.
Tommy Fleetwood is another who I have a lot of time for. His tee-to-green game is excellent, and he consistently puts himself in the right positions, but, in my opinion, there are times when he’s just not relentless enough when it comes to scoring. He can look superb for long spells without quite converting that into the sort of low numbers needed to win tournaments. On a course of this length though, his ball-striking should be a real asset, and he certainly has the game to compete. I just don’t know how confident I’d be about him converting enough chances, perhaps.
For me, I’m looking for players who can really take advantage of the par fives while also having the length to handle what is a quality, lengthy golf course. Good driving and strong iron play are going to be key, while putting could ultimately prove the difference if the scoring gets low. I want players who can produce birdies in bunches rather than simply keep themselves in the tournament. You need to be aggressive around here, but also have the discipline to avoid the big numbers.
With the Race to Dubai reaching its conclusion, there is plenty to play for, both in terms of the tournament itself and the wider season standings. Rory and Rahm will understandably attract plenty of attention, particularly after their performances in Abu Dhabi, but there are plenty of other quality players capable of making their mark.
So, let’s get into my squad for the tournament, and don’t forget to sign up for free, to get more content all year round!
| Contestant | Odds |
|---|---|
| Tyrrell Hatton | +1600 |
| Ryan Fox | +3500 |
| Adrian Meronk | +5500 |
1. Tyrrell Hatton (+1600)
I’m a huge fan of Tyrrell Hatton’s game because when he’s on song, there genuinely aren’t many better than him. However, he hasn’t had the strongest season this year.
Firstly, it’s not all bad, as he did win on the LIV circuit at Valderrama back in June, but by his standards, there hasn’t been much else outside of that win to call this year a real success. Last weekend though, he finished runner-up behind Jon Rahm in Abu Dhabi and looked much more like the better version of himself. This course this week arguably suits him even more than Yas Links too.
It’s a little tighter off the tee, which should suit Tyrrell plenty because his driving is excellent. He has plenty of length and only hits a very small fade, meaning he rarely has to bring too much danger into play. From fairway to green, he’s pretty solid too. It’s easy to say that about most golfers, but when Tyrrell is striking it well, he generally hits a ton of greens in regulation. I’ve always rated his putting highly as well, which is obviously required to hopefully convert those chances and put a score together.
The big negative, as we know, is his mental attitude towards his game at times. However, when punting on golf, you’re generally backing players in the hope that they bring their best anyway. If Tyrrell can produce that again this week, then he’s got a huge shout.
2. Ryan Fox (+3500)
Ryan Fox is a man for the big events, and we’ve had him on side for plenty of his wins. He’s now an Open Champion, and rightly so, because he is all class. This is a course that should suit him really nicely, too. He’s quality from tee to green, and his putting isn’t half bad either. In fact, I’d go as far as saying he’s a really consistent putter. The better he plays from tee to green, the better he seems to putt, also.
He’s sneakily long off the tee, and his consistent fade means he often arrives at a course already knowing his game plan, as it’s one he can use pretty much anywhere he plays. His length here will be a real asset, and if he’s striking the ball well, which is typically one of the strongest parts of his game, then he has a really good chance of scoring well. If he’s in a good position come Sunday, he’ll be very hard to keep out of the money spots. He is in the mix at golf betting sites.
3. Adrian Meronk (+5500)
Of the bigger-priced players, Adrian Meronk has to come under consideration to a degree, having rediscovered the form that saw him claim four DP World Tour wins between 2022 and 2023.
We’ve also seen a big bounce back from him this season after claiming the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship last month, and his game has actually continued to stay in good shape since. He missed the cut at the Open de Espana on his first start after that win, but followed it up with a third-place finish at the India Championship before also finishing inside the top 20 at last week’s Abu Dhabi Championship.
This long course should suit Meronk quite well, and with his current form looking encouraging, he remains a decent price. He could be worth a small play here, as he’s certainly capable of going well and outplaying his odds when his game is in the sort of shape it is right now. A very likeable player, and it’s the price that has half tempted me in.
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