NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 10: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo +425 (Heat vs. Jazz)

The Miami Heat are one of the strongest teams in the NBA at winning opening jump balls, boasting a 90% success rate this season. That gives Miami an excellent chance to secure the first possession against Utah and create an early scoring opportunity. From there, I’m looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo to open the scoring at +425.

Giannis is starting to find his rhythm after a relatively slow start and is playing some outstanding basketball recently. He’s averaging 27.5 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game while shooting 56.6% from the field. He’s been particularly impressive over his last four games, scoring 29, 20, 27 and 30 points while continuing to dominate around the basket.

GIANNIS SCORING AND ASSISTING AT WILL 💪

The Heat offense is looking scary with Antetokounmpo. pic.twitter.com/nmsDAMaXZ5

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) October 4, 2026

His ability to attack the rim, finish through contact, and create easy opportunities makes him an excellent first-basket candidate. With Miami likely to secure the opening tip, I like Giannis to capitalize on the first possession.

At +425, he’s a strong value play to score first.

Franz Wagner +475 (Magic vs. Kings)

Franz Wagner is my pick to score the first basket against Sacramento at +475. The Orlando Magic have a significant advantage in opening jump balls, winning 77.8% of them this season compared to just 50% for the Kings. That gives Orlando a strong chance to secure the first possession and create an early scoring opportunity for Wagner.

Franz Wagner over his last five games:

21.8 PTS
5.6 REB
11.0 AST
45% FG pic.twitter.com/hA7Nyt7huY

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 9, 2026

Wagner is having an excellent start to the season, averaging 20.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 8.8 assists per game. He’s also averaging 16.8 field-goal attempts per game, showing how heavily involved he is offensively. He’s coming off a terrific 30-point performance against Golden State, shooting 11-of-22 from the field while adding 11 assists.

He’s scored at least 22 points in three of his last four games and continues to attack aggressively, particularly when getting downhill and driving to the basket. Wagner has already recorded two first baskets this season, making him one of Orlando’s leading options in this market.

With the Magic holding the edge at the opening tip, +475 is an attractive price.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.