NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 12: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Collin Murray-Boyles +1400 (Raptors vs. 76ers)

I’m willing to take a chance on Collin Murray-Boyles to score the first basket at a monster +1400 price against Philadelphia. With Scottie Barnes and Kawhi Leonard sidelined, Murray-Boyles has an opportunity to take on a larger offensive role and is getting more chances to make an impact.

Toronto has also won 63.6% of its opening jump balls this season compared to the 76ers, giving the Raptors a good chance to secure the first possession. Murray-Boyles is starting to heat up offensively, averaging 10.7 points and 5.0 rebounds per game while shooting 50.7% from the field.

Raptors Collin Murray-Boyles 19 PTS (7-7 FG, 2-2 3P, 108% TS), 9 REB, 2 AST, 1 STL, 0 TO, +21 in 16 minutes vs. Knicks

He is going to be a STAR in this league pic.twitter.com/RTbIwKuiEB

— Role Player Performances (@BenchHighlights) October 14, 2026

He’s averaging 10.3 field-goal attempts per 36 minutes, and his recent production is particularly encouraging. Across his last four starts, he’s averaged 13.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.8 assists while playing 26.3 minutes per game. He’s becoming more comfortable offensively and isn’t afraid to attack the basket.

At +1400, there’s plenty of upside in backing the young Raptors forward to capitalize on an early scoring opportunity.

Devin Booker +475 (Hornets vs. Suns)

Devin Booker is one of my favorite NBA first basket bets against Charlotte at +475. The Hornets have been one of the league’s worst teams at the opening tip, winning just 27.3% of their jump balls this season. That gives Phoenix a significant advantage in securing the first possession and creating an early scoring opportunity for its leading offensive weapon.

Devin Booker dropped 23 POINTS in the 1H 🔥

Suns lead at the break! pic.twitter.com/iMLXGHQskB

— NBA (@NBA) November 6, 2026

Booker is off to an excellent start, averaging 25.1 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 48.3% from the field. He’s been dangerous recently, scoring 43 points against Golden State, 33 against Portland, 30 against Orlando, 24 against Houston, and 32 against San Antonio over his last several games.

He’s consistently attacking, getting to the basket and creating his own shot. Booker has also recorded a first basket this season, scoring the opening bucket against Golden State on November 2.

With Phoenix having a strong opportunity to win the opening tip, I like Booker at +475 to get the Suns on the scoreboard first.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.