NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 13: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +500 (Bucks vs. Magic)

Franz Wagner stands out as one of the best NBA first-basket bets tonight against Milwaukee. The Orlando Magic have a significant advantage at the opening tip, winning 72.7% of their jump balls this season compared to just 33.3% for the Bucks. That gives Orlando an excellent chance to secure the first possession and increase Wagner’s chances of getting an early shot.

Wagner is having a fantastic season, averaging 23.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 7.9 assists per game. He’s been especially impressive recently, exploding for 38 points against Utah and 33 against Sacramento in back-to-back wins. He’s attempted 23 field goals in each of those performances, demonstrating just how aggressively he’s attacking and how heavily Orlando relies on him offensively. With Paolo Banchero sidelined, Wagner has taken on an even larger scoring responsibility and is playing with tremendous confidence.

Franz Wagner over his last 4 games:

38 PTS – 8 REB – 57% FG
33 PTS – 7 REB – 7 AST – 48% FG
30 PTS – 6 REB – 11 AST – 50% FG
15 PTS – 8 REB – 15 AST – 54% FG pic.twitter.com/WzQrBB5Gsk

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) November 12, 2026

He’s also already recorded two first baskets this season, making him a proven option in this market. At +500, I like his chances to get Orlando off to a fast start.

Dylan Harper +850 (Warriors vs. Spurs)

There’s excellent value on Dylan Harper to score the first basket against Golden State at +850. The San Antonio Spurs have a massive advantage at the opening tip, winning 91.7% of their jump balls this season compared to just 25% for the Warriors. With Victor Wembanyama controlling the opening tip, San Antonio should have a great opportunity to secure the first possession and get Harper involved early.

Dylan Harper recorded his first career regular season double-double last night in Chicago 🪉

📊 18 PTS | 10 AST | 6 REB | 4 STL pic.twitter.com/bCO7yoYIGz

— San Antonio Spurs (@spurs) November 12, 2026

Harper is enjoying an outstanding campaign, averaging 18 points, 5.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game while shooting 49.7% from the field. He’s been particularly productive recently, scoring 18 points against Chicago, 17 against Phoenix, 13 against Portland, 19 against Sacramento and 21 against Dallas.

He’s averaging 17.6 points over his last five games and shooting an impressive 51.5% from the field during that stretch. Harper is becoming increasingly comfortable attacking the basket and creating his own scoring opportunities.

With San Antonio likely to win the opening tip, I like the value on the young guard at +850 to open the scoring.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.