Best MMA Betting Picks This Week: UFC, Centurion FC, And LFA

The Sports Geek is back with another round of the best MMA bets this week! After reviewing the extensive list of options at the top sports betting sites, I have discovered the best wagers to consider locking in for the week of April 22, 2024.

While there isn’t a UFC PPV until Pantoja and Erceg next month at UFC 301, there are a variety of promotions with fight cards. UFC Vegas 91 is on top Saturday night, while the Legacy Fighting Alliance and Centurion Fighting Championship have cards earlier in the week.

Below, find the latest odds, predictions, and my MMA best bets for the week. I’ve used odds from BetOnline, which carries the most comprehensive MMA betting lines every week.

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Matheus Nicolau To Beat Alex Perez (UFC Vegas 91)

Matheus Nicolau (19-4-1) vs. Alex Perez (24-8-0) headlines the UFC Vegas 91 card in Nevada on Saturday evening. It should be an entertaining fight, but most importantly, it should be a profitable matchup.

The 32-year-old Perez opened his career in great form. After beating Kevin Gray via submission at Dana White’s Contender Series in 2017, he won six of his next seven assignments in the UFC.

However, Perez is currently on a three-fight losing streak and desperately needs a win to get back on track. In his latest performance, he held his own in a decision loss to Muhammad Mokaev at UFC Fight Night on March 2.

It was a decent showing despite the defeat, but this isn’t a great matchup for him against Matheus Nicolau. His opponent has over 90% takedown defense, so Perez is unlikely to have much success taking him to the ground.

The Brazilian does not have KO power in his arsenal, so that’s another option that should be difficult. Additionally, he accepted this fight on short notice, without much time to prepare for Nicolau!

The flyweight will have to contend with a fighter with a superior BJJ and stand-up game. Still, the Brazilian watched Nicolau’s six-fight win streak come to an end versus Brandon Royval a year ago at UFC Fight Night.

Nicolau had won nine of his previous 10 fights before Royval delivered a loss. However, this is a much better matchup for him. Perez does not employ the same KO power, so he shouldn’t be concerned with a similar loss.

Nicolau is a sharp pick for one of my UFC Vegas 91 best bets this weekend, and the odds are high enough to back him.

Jonathan Pearce To Beat David Onama (UFC Vegas 91)

Jonathan Pearce (14-5-0) and David Onama (11-2-0) clash in one of the most intriguing fights on the UFC Vegas 91 card. This is a fight of contrasting styles.

Onama is searching for the eighth KO/TKO of his career, while Pearce is a bit more versatile with his work on the ground. If Onama can rock Peace before he gets worn down, there is an opening for a victory.

That said, if Pearce can turn this fight into a grind, Onama could struggle. The Ugandan fighter does not have the required cardio to survive in a grappling match versus Peace on the mat.

With Onama owning a worse than 50% takedown defense, he has some discernible problems at UFC Vegas 91. He needs to score a quick KO in the opening round, or I don’t have confidence in his ability to beat Pearce.

Pearce will go for takedowns and wear Onama out for a textbook victory. The favorite could also win with his fists standing up, too, but it would be in his best interest to keep it on the ground.

I expect a win by decision or submission for Pearce, so he’s worthy of a look at most top betting apps and sites for UFC Vegas 91.

Anderson Dos Santos To Beat Paulo Pizzo (Centurion FC 19)

After losing his UFC contract, 38-year-old Anderson Dos Santos is looking to revive his career at Centurion FC 19 in São Paulo, Brazil.

Dos Santos was cut from the UFC after suffering his third loss in four attempts in 2021, including a KO/TKO loss to Miles Johns at UFC 265, most recently.

Dos Santos’ lone win came via submission over Martin Day at UFC Fight Night in 2020. It was an impressive victory, with Dos Santos handling Day a defeat at 4:35 of Round 1¹.

Before signing with UFC, Dos Santos had won three straight bouts and four of his previous five fights in lower promotions. The Brazilian is going back to this level, so you could expect more success.

In what appears like a lay-up on paper, Paulo Pizzo (11-5-0) is struggling to get his career off the ground in a variety of small promotions. The Brazilian has lost two of his previous three fights, with defeats at the Standing Fighting Tournament 36 and Spartacus Fight Event 27.

He did look much better in a unanimous decision victory over Jandickson Pereira at Spartacus Fight Evening 34². That said, Dos Santos is the most accomplished opponent of his career thus far and on a completely different level.

If Dos Santos has prepared properly, he shouldn’t have many issues taking Pizzo to the ground and ending it. A loss versus a journeyman fighter who hasn’t smelled the UFC would likely signal the end of his career.

Nevertheless, Dos Santos’ experience should pay off in this one, so he’s worth considering at Centurion FC 19.

Shad Walters To Beat Nicholas Gjelaj (LFA 182)

Nicholas Gjelaj (1-0-0) vs. Shad Walters (2-0-0) is a matchup between two builders hoping to find a promising start to their MMA careers. Between the two of them, they’ve experienced only three professional fights after an amateur career.

Walters is the more experienced of the two fighters. “The Relentless” is coming off back-to-back wins to open his Legacy Fighting Alliance career. He won his first fight with a flying knee to Darius Miller! 

The 29-year-old used the momentum to his advantage and defeated the undefeated Patrick Cornett at LFA 173 this past December. Walters picked up the win with a rear naked choke in Round 3 over Cornett³.

Although Walters has looked good in his first two professional fights, he is not much of a favorite over Gjelaj right now. Also, he won three of his previous four amateur matches before signing with LFA.

In February, Gjelaj opened his professional career with a split-decision win over Jared Braun at LFA 176. It was a close fight for Gjelaj, who had to fight and claw his way to victory.

Walters has already shown he can win standing up or on the ground. I expect him to take the battle to Gjelaj at LFA 182.

To round out your best MMA bets for this week, consider backing the more well-rounded fighter as a small favorite in this match.

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