MLB Cy Young Odds 2026 Betting Preview: AL & NL Cy Young Predictions

2026 NL Cy Young Odds

The following NL Cy Young odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Following an unbelievable season, Skenes (+230) opens as the favorite to win back-to-back Cy Young awards. In his first full year in the Pirates’ rotation, the 24-year-old right-hander dominated from start to finish, making his spot atop the odds board no surprise.

At +230, Skenes carries a 30.3% implied probability to repeat. Right behind him is Dodgers ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+500), the top arm in Los Angeles’ rotation. After playing a key role in the Dodgers’ World Series run, Yamamoto enters his third MLB season with a 16.7% chance to capture the NL Cy Young.

The next name on the board is Phillies left-hander Cristopher Sánchez at +900. Coming off a strong showing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic, Sánchez owns the third-shortest odds and a 10% implied probability, positioning him as a legitimate dark-horse contender in the 2026 race.

2026 AL Cy Young Odds

The following AL Cy Young odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel:

Skubal (+290) is aiming for a rare three-peat and another AL Cy Young Award. The Tigers’ ace is due for a massive payday soon, giving him plenty of motivation to maintain his elite form, thus making Tarik Skubal Cy Young picks worth your consideration.

At +290, Skubal enters the preseason as the favorite with a 25.6% implied probability to claim his third straight Cy Young. The Garrett Crochet odds (+375), put the Boston Red Sox left-hander closely behind. He delivered a breakout 2025 campaign and is expected to build on that success this year. The question is whether Crochet can close the gap and derail Skubal’s three-peat bid.

Beyond Skubal and Crochet, the American League field is relatively thin. Two-time NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (+900) has the third-shortest odds in the AL race, while Cole Ragans (+1200) and Hunter Brown (+1200) linger as viable contenders with 7.7% implied odds apiece.

Paul Skenes (+230)

Skenes is back and ready to build on his legacy after one of the most memorable seasons ever by a pitcher. He debuted for the Pirates in 2024 and could very easily have won the Cy Young if the rookie had pitched a full season.

The former Air Force Academy standout posted a 1.96 ERA and 0.95 WHIP across 23 appearances. All he needed was a larger body of work, and that’s exactly what he delivered in 2025. Skenes was nearly identical, recording a 1.97 ERA and 0.95 WHIP over 32 outings.

Paul Skenes in Year 1: Rookie of the Year

Paul Skenes in Year 2: Cy Young 🏴‍☠️

(MLB x @MattressFirm) pic.twitter.com/1kPKeGUFY8

— MLB (@MLB) November 13, 2025

He also racked up 386 strikeouts and a 7.64 WAR for the second-best number in the Major Leagues. The only real knock on Skenes last year was his 10–10 record, but that had little to do with his performance. The Pirates rarely gave him much run support, which made it hard for him to rack up wins despite how well he pitched.

Looking ahead, I expect Pittsburgh to be a stronger, more competitive team than it was a season ago. Skenes is highly unlikely to regress, and I project another season in which he posts an ERA right around 2.00.

With more wins for Skenes this season, it might even be easier for voters to give him the nod. Skenes received 30 of 30 first-place votes last season and it could be an auto-vote for the young Pirate in 2026. I expected Skenes to have shorter NL Cy Young odds than +230, so there is value to consider on going back-to-back.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (+500)

Yamamoto was a linchpin for the Dodgers during their 2025 World Series push, playing a pivotal role in their run. Building on a strong regular season, he was spectacular in the postseason, posting a 2.49 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, an improvement over the 3.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP from his first year in the Majors.

Most encouraging for Yamamoto is his steady growth since arriving in Los Angeles. If the former NPB star continues on this trajectory, he could close the gap on Skenes in the Cy Young race.

In six postseason appearances last year, Yamamoto was electric. He delivered a 1.45 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, holding opponents to a .174 on-base percentage and allowing only 23 hits across 37.1 innings. This was Yamamoto at his peak, with his confidence at an all-time high en route to World Series MVP.

YOSHINOBU YAMAMOTO IS YOUR 2025 WORLD SERIES MVP! pic.twitter.com/CGkbqjjICO

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) November 2, 2025

I expect another lockdown season from Yamamoto on the mound. He should be able to build on last year’s 2.49 ERA and may even draw some first-place Cy Young votes. Still, the gap between him and Skenes remains significant, so overtaking him for the award will be a challenging task.

Tarik Skubal (+290)

Only two pitchers have won the Cy Young Award in three consecutive seasons: Randy Johnson (1999-2002) and Greg Maddux (1992-1995). Both ultimately made it four in a row, so Skubal needs two more to tie their record.

After winning with a 2.39 ERA in 2024, Skubal topped himself with a career-best 2.21 ERA and 0.89 WHIP this past season. He helped lead the Tigers to the ALDS, where they eventually fell to the Mariners, but he did everything you could ask from an ace, including 241 strikeouts.

Tarik Skubal. 101mph ⛽️ on his 99th pitch.

13th K. pic.twitter.com/j5HGOTRL6x

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 11, 2025

Skubal’s massive payday is coming soon. The only question is whether the Tigers will meet his asking price. He’s currently on a one-year deal, earning $32 million in arbitration, well above Detroit’s $19 million offer.

Motivation won’t be an issue for Skubal this year. He wants to be the highest-paid pitcher in the game and is well on track to get there. If the Tigers don’t trade him, they risk losing him for nothing in free agency. Either way, he’ll be pitching with a huge financial incentive this season.

If another American League pitcher can get within striking distance of Skubal’s numbers, that player could win the award thanks to voter fatigue with the Tigers’ starter. I respect Skubal and expect him to be dominant again, but I see better value elsewhere than betting Tarik Skubal for Cy Young.

Garrett Crochet (+375)

The Red Sox are leaning on Crochet to bring the fire on the mound this season. After a true breakout campaign, he’s poised to take another step forward, one that could realistically end with an AL Cy Young Award.

The big lefty posted a career-best 2.59 ERA and 1.03 WHIP last season, following up a 3.58 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in his final year with the White Sox. Armed with a fastball that consistently sits above 95 mph and a destructive sweeper, Crochet has firmly established himself as a frontline arm and a legitimate Cy Young threat.

While Tarik Skubal’s overall numbers edged Crochet’s in a few areas, Crochet separated himself with his swing-and-miss stuff. He racked up 255 strikeouts over 32 starts to lead the Major Leagues, showing exactly how dominant he can be when he’s on. And it’s important to consider the context of the competition each pitcher faces.

Garrett Crochet dominated in his first season in Boston!

He finishes 2025 with the most strikeouts in baseball 🐷 pic.twitter.com/N5URbc6PcR

— MLB (@MLB) September 29, 2025

Crochet has to navigate the gauntlet of the AL East, regularly squaring off against lineups like the Yankees and Blue Jays.

Skubal, meanwhile, benefits from pitching in the weaker AL Central, where the quality of opposing offenses isn’t as daunting. If Crochet can take even a modest step forward from last season – or simply replicate Skubal-level results while facing tougher lineups – he absolutely has the profile to win the Cy Young.

Expect Crochet to be firmly in the conversation come September. Garrett Crochet’s odds of +375 line up with his upside and workload, making him a justifiable strong AL Cy Young betting pick.