NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 21: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Clingan +850 (Suns vs. Trail Blazers)

Donovan Clingan is a high-value first-basket bet against the Phoenix Suns at +850 odds. Standing 7-foot-2, the Portland Trail Blazers center has the size to compete at the opening tip and put his team in position to score first. His perfect 100% preseason success rate on opening-tip opportunities adds to the appeal.

Clingan’s offensive improvement makes this wager even more enticing. As a rookie in 2024-25, he averaged 6.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, shooting an impressive 53.9% from the field. He took a significant step forward in 2025-26, increasing his production to 12.1 points and 11.6 rebounds per game while starting all 77 appearances. He also improved his three-point shooting from 28.6% to 34.1%, showing his growing offensive versatility.

Donovan Clingan AND ONE 🦍

– Look at him be the hub of this offense.

Tuff move. Need it ALL SEASON! pic.twitter.com/y14egKu83q

— ItsAllLove (@nbanerdd) October 8, 2026

With another season of development behind him, Clingan has established himself as a more reliable offensive presence. His size makes him a dangerous target for an early lob, post-up, or offensive rebound, with Portland having multiple ways to get him involved immediately.

At +850, we’re backing Clingan to take advantage of his physical edge and continued development to open the scoring. The potential payout makes him an appealing longshot in tonight’s matchup.

Darius Garland +700 (Kings vs. Clippers)

Darius Garland is a strong value pick to score the first basket against the Sacramento Kings at +700 odds. Brook Lopez gives the LA Clippers a proven veteran at center for the opening tip, with a path to the first possession and an early scoring opportunity for Garland. Sacramento struggled in opening-tip situations during the 2025-26 season, allowing the Clippers to seize the early advantage.

Garland’s scoring touch makes him an appealing first-basket target. He averaged 18.8 points and 6.7 assists per game in 2025-26, while shooting an efficient 39.6% from three-point range. His quick release, ability to create separation, and confidence attacking off the dribble make him a dangerous option to finish the Clippers’ opening possession.

DARIUS GARLAND MADE NEMBHARD TOUCH EARTH 🤮🔥 pic.twitter.com/Ibs3EvNksZ

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) March 28, 2026

Lopez’s presence at center is key to this wager. He has built a reputation as a strong jump-ball competitor, giving the Clippers a chance to secure possession and get their offense moving immediately. If Garland gets the first scoring opportunity, his shot creation and perimeter accuracy give him the tools to capitalize.

At +700, we’re backing Garland’s scoring ability and the potential opening-tip advantage to deliver excellent value for one of the best first scorer prop bets tonight.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.