NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 29: Best First Point Scorer Bets

James Harden +800 (Cavaliers vs. Hawks)

James Harden is a top value pick to score the first basket against the Atlanta Hawks at +800 odds. Cleveland has been one of the NBA’s strongest teams at the opening tip, winning approximately 75% of its jump balls to start the season.

With Jarrett Allen providing size and athleticism at center court, the Cavaliers have a strong chance to secure the first possession and create an early scoring opportunity for Harden.

JAMES HARDEN. #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/qIztukXTEe

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) October 27, 2026

Harden is off to a solid start with Cleveland, averaging 15.7 points and 7.0 assists per game through his first three appearances in 2026-27. He’s also been increasingly aggressive as a scorer, attempting 18 field goals in his latest outing against Washington after taking 20 shots combined across his first two games.

At +800, we’re backing Harden being aggressive and Cleveland’s potential opening-tip advantage to deliver value in the first-basket market.

Cameron Boozer +650 (Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers)

Cameron Boozer is a solid first basket bet against the Portland Trail Blazers at +650 odds. With Zach Edey back at center, Memphis has a major advantage at the opening tip. Edey’s size gives the Grizzlies an excellent chance to secure the first possession and create an early scoring opportunity for Boozer.

Cameron Boozer ERUPTED in tonight's @memgrizz win!

🐻 25 PTS
🐻 13 REB
🐻 6 AST
🐻 2 STL
🐻 4 3PM

He is the third-youngest player (19 years, 97 days) in NBA history to record 25/10/5, behind only Cooper Flagg and LeBron James. pic.twitter.com/VmAYXi9MVh

— NBA (@NBA) October 24, 2026

Boozer has been aggressive offensively in his second NBA season, averaging 15.3 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists per game through Memphis’ first four games. He’s also averaging 15.3 field-goal attempts per contest, demonstrating how heavily involved he is in the Grizzlies’ offense.

He’s a versatile scorer who can attack the paint, finish through contact, and capitalize on offensive rebounds for second-chance points. His ability to score from different areas gives Memphis several ways to get him involved immediately.

With Edey providing the opening-tip advantage and Boozer playing an aggressive role offensively, +650 offers excellent value. We’re backing Boozer to capitalize on the early opportunity and put the first points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.