It’s time for the feature race of the week as the final day of the Newmarket July Festival brings us the Group 1 July Cup. One of the most prestigious six-furlong contests in Europe, it regularly attracts the very best sprinters, and this year’s renewal looks every bit as competitive.
I’ve taken a deep dive into the race and picked out the runners I think offer the best betting value. Then I’ll explain who I like, why they appeal, and where I think the market may have overlooked a few key angles. Let’s get stuck into the July Cup. Best of luck if you’re following me in.
16:35 Dubai July Cup Stakes (Group 1) 6f Odds and Betting Pick
- Santono Reve 7/2
- Venetian Sun 7/2
- Almeraq 6/1
- Mission Central 8/1
- Double Rush 8/1
- Big Mojo 9/1
The July Cup looks a really deep renewal, and there are a few lively outsiders worth considering. We’ll start with Coppull, who has been a model of consistency this season and whose form leaves him with very little to find when you weight up the numbers. The only concern is that he’s been beaten in all three of his Group 1 starts, suggesting he may just come up a touch short at the very highest level.
That brings us to Division, who only has around a length to find with the current market leader, Venetian Sun. The interesting angle though, is that Coppull actually finished ahead of Division when they last met.
If you fancy Division, then logically Coppull probably deserves a little more respect from a betting perspective. They both make some appeal as each way options, but when backing each way, I still like to believe the horse has a genuine chance of winning and I think the pair come up a little short.
Double Rush is another fascinating contender. He’s three from three at Newmarket, albeit on the Rowley Mile, and his last three handicap victories have suggested a horse progressing rapidly through the ranks. This is a significant step up into Group 1 company, but it would be naive to dismiss him given the level of improvement he’s shown so far.
A strongly run race would play perfectly into the hands of Mission Central, who is also unbeaten in three starts this season. Most of those wins have come over five furlongs, although he has already proven himself over six. The stronger the pace, the better his chance, and I think he has a rock-solid each-way profile.
There’s very little between Venetian Sun and Satono Reve on form, but the one that gets my vote is Almeraq each way. I thought he was hugely impressive in the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, where he finished ahead of Satono Reve, and he still looks like a sprinter with plenty more to offer.
He’s improving at a rapid rate and could easily take another step forward here. Giving weight to Venetian Sun won’t be straightforward, but I think this gelding has the class to cope. He’s a proper horse, and at the prices, he’s the one I want to side with.
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