Patrick Mahomes props give bettors plenty of ways to wager on one of the NFL’s biggest stars. From passing yards and touchdowns to game-specific and season-long markets, there is rarely a shortage of options involving the Chiefs quarterback.
Below, I break down the latest odds and highlight my top Patrick Mahomes prop predictions for 2026.
Patrick Mahomes Prop Bets vs Las Vegas Raiders: October 4, 2026
Here are the latest Mahomes game prop bets, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| PROP BET | ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Total Passing Touchdowns | Over 1.5 (-132) Under 1.5 (+102) |
Over 1.5 (-132) |
| Total Rushing Yards | Over 15.5 (-120) Under 15.5 (-110) |
Under 15.5 (-110) |
| Total Passing Yards | Over 221.5 (-113) Under 221.5 (-117) |
Over 221.5 (-113) |
The Kansas City Chiefs are an undefeated 3-0 after a 24-10 win at Miami, and now they’ll head to Las Vegas for a matchup with the rival Raiders. The Raiders are also undefeated at 3-0, and this could be one of the best games on the Week 4 slate!
Patrick Mahomes is back after recovering from a knee injury last season, and he looks like he hasn’t lost a step. The signing of running back Kenneth Walker III has opened up the field for the Chiefs, and Mahomes is spreading the ball around in the Kansas City offense.
Read on to see my favorite Patrick Mahomes prop bets this week at the top NFL betting sites.
You can find the latest Patrick Mahomes prop odds at Lucky Rebel by navigating to Sports > Football > NFL > Detroit Lions vs. Carolina Panthers.
Total Passing Touchdowns: Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 (-132)
- Over 1.5 (-132)
- Under 1.5 (+102)
Mahomes has dominated the Raiders in his career, going 13-2 against them since taking over as the Chiefs’ starter in 2018. What’s more, he has put incredible numbers against the Raiders.
Will Patrick Mahomes continue his dominance over the Raiders to end their undefeated run this season? 👀 pic.twitter.com/aXDdJzIN9M
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 1, 2026
Mahomes has 36 passing touchdowns in 15 games against the Raiders, who have improved on defense and lead the league with nine takeaways. However, Mahomes has seven passing touchdowns, and has thrown at least two each touchdown passes in each game so far.
Therefore, I’m happy to take the juice on this Patrick Mahomes prop bet at -132 and go over 1.5 passing touchdowns!
Total Rushing Yards: Patrick Mahomes Under 15.5 (-110)
- Over 15.5 (-120)
- Under 15.5 (-110)
Mahomes has gone over 15.5 rushing yards twice, but he is coming off a one-yard performance against Miami. However, the Dolphins’ pass rush is non-existent, so Mahomes was happy to sit back in the pocket and pick them apart.
Patrick Mahomes set a career high with 5 rushing touchdowns in 2025.
He just scored his first rushing TD of 2026 👀🔥 pic.twitter.com/IdogDMZUax
— The Sports Geek (@TheSports_Geek) September 15, 2026
The Raiders have a good pass rush with 10 sacks so far this season. But the Chiefs can open up the playbook and use their short passing game to slow them down. The Chiefs also have Walker to keep the Raiders from getting too aggressive up front.
I’ll take the under here at 15.5 yards on this Patrick Mahomes prop bet, as I also believe the Chiefs will instruct Mahomes to just throw it away and avoid any major injuries.
Pick: Under 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Total Passing Yards: Patrick Mahomes Over 221.5 (-113)
- Over 221.5 (-113)
- Under 221.5 (-117)
In his 15 meetings with the Raiders, Mahomes has averaged a staggering 295.1 passing yards. He has thrown for over 290 yards nine times against his AFC West rivals, and only twice has he passed for under 221.5 yards, which is the total in this Patrick Mahomes prop.
Highest deep passing grade this season
Patrick Mahomes 99.9
Jalen Hurts 95.1
Brock Purdy 94.8
Joe Burrow 94.8
Jared Goff 94.0 pic.twitter.com/BK7zwOyIpL— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2026
The Chiefs have weapons through the air. Travis Kelce is playing his best football in 2-3 years, while Rashee Rice is starting to get going, and Walker is a nice safety valve. This could be a game where even Xavier Worthy gets free.
Mahomes is averaging 270.7 yards through his first three games, and the Chiefs will scheme up some looks that Las Vegas hasn’t seen before. Let’s take the over here at -113 as I believe Mahomes will eclipse 221.5 yards easily.
Patrick Mahomes Season Props & Futures: 2026-27 Award Odds
Check out the most recent Mahomes season prop bets, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| PROP BET | ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| NFL MVP | +900 | Winner |
| NFL Comeback Player of the Year | -250 | Winner |
Along with game props, you can bet on Mahomes futures prop picks today. Right now, there are only two markets where you can wager on Mahomes for the 2026-27 campaign.
However, as the season goes along, updated passing totals and other props could be put on the board by online bookies. For now, let’s take a look at these two NFL awards prop bets, and if there is anything available in the future worth betting on, we’ll discuss that.
NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes (+900)
Mahomes is no stranger to the NFL MVP conversation. He won his first award in 2018, and then again in 2022.
2022 MVP Patrick Mahomes. pic.twitter.com/uOCUSYM9e6
— Football Performances (@NFLPerformances) July 15, 2026
Heading into Week 4, you can get Patrick Mahomes odds for MVP at +900, and if the Chiefs have a fantastic record by the end of the season, he’ll get a strong look. Quarterbacks have won every MVP since 2013, and get a ton of credit if the team does well.
I think the Chiefs had a terrible season last year, highlighted by Mahomes’ ACL injury. But they’re playing like they’re on a mission this season, and they’re led by Mahomes.
I’d be happy to take a swing on his NFL MVP odds of +900 right now before the value drops!
NFL Comeback Player of the Year: Patrick Mahomes (-250)
This Patrick Mahomes futures bet is getting close to being a lock already! Mahomes is priced at -250 to win Comeback Player of the Year after coming back from his ACL tear.
Highest deep passing grade this season
Patrick Mahomes 99.9
Jalen Hurts 95.1
Brock Purdy 94.8
Joe Burrow 94.8
Jared Goff 94.0 pic.twitter.com/BK7zwOyIpL— PFF (@PFF) September 29, 2026
Like the MVP award, Mahomes would have history on his side as seven of the last eight winners of this award have been quarterbacks. The next closest to him in the odds are San Francisco linebacker Fred Warner, Minnesota quarterback Kyler Murray, and Atlanta QB Michael Penix Jr.
It would take a massive season from either of these three to pass Mahomes for this award. Mahomes doesn’t even need huge numbers; he just needs the Chiefs to have a great season, and to stay healthy.
I’ll take this bet at -250 for now, but you may not be able to soon as the value could disappear quickly.
What Are Your Patrick Mahomes Prop Predictions and Picks?
What are your favorite Patrick Mahomes prop bets this week, and which season-long markets are you targeting? Share your predictions in the comments below. If you’re ready to back Mahomes or go against my picks, Lucky Rebel is a trusted NFL sportsbook to consider for your wagers.
For a limited time, deposit at Lucky Rebel to claim a 125% match bonus of up to $1,250!
Welcome Bonus
125% up to $1,250
- Fast crypto withdrawals
- High bet limits
- New betting markets on request
You must be logged in to comment. Don't have an account? Sign up today.