UFC 299 Odds, Predictions, and Picks: O’Malley vs. Vera

As fight night draws closer, the UFC 299 odds are heating up at the top UFC betting sites. On Saturday, March 9, there are 13 fights planned for the UFC 299 card. In the main event, the bantamweight title is on the line in a showdown between champion Sean O’Malley and the challenger, Marlon Vera.

In addition to my Malley vs. Vera prediction, I have UFC 299 picks for Dustin Poirier vs. Benoit-Saint Denis in the co-main event and a few more fights. All odds are courtesy of Bovada.

Sean O’Malley vs. Marlon Vera Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

• Sean O’Malley (-240)
• Marlon Vera (+195)

In the UFC 299 main event, O’Malley (17-1-0) and Vera (21-8-1) step into the Octagon for a showdown many people are more excited for than the UFC 300 main event.

O’Malley is currently one of the most exciting personalities and fighters in the UFC. He will defend the UFC Bantamweight Championship against Vera.

Vera remains the only loss on O’Malley’s resume. I have made my best O’Malley vs. Vera predictions for this highly-anticipated rematch below.

Tale Of The Tape/Fighting Styles

Despite having a height and reach advantage, O’Malley came up short against Vera in 2020. The Irishman has three inches on his opponent and his reach is a couple of inches longer.

“Suga” relies on a unique style that involves feinting, accurate strikes, solid punch selection, and switching stances seamlessly. He’s one of the best in the business at keeping opponents guessing.

Vera is a pressure fighter with a solid gas tank and a formidable chin. “Chito” typically doesn’t allow the fight to come to him. He initiates and wants to take control early in fights.

It’s a matchup that could go either way, but let’s talk about recent form before making a decision.

Fighter Form

O’Malley Recent Results:

• Aug. 19, 2023 – WIN vs. Aljamain Sterling (KO/TKO)
• Oct. 22, 2022 – WIN vs. Petr Yan (Split Decision)
• July 2, 2022 – NO CONTEST vs. Pedro Munhoz
• Dec. 11, 2021 – WIN vs. Raulian vs. Paiva (KO/TKO)

The bantamweight champ has been in the best shape of his career. Since losing to Vera at UFC 252, the flamboyant O’Malley has won five straight bouts.

Vera Recent Results:

• Aug. 19, 2023 – WIN vs. Pedro Munhoz (Unanimous Decision)
• March. 25, 2023 – LOSS vs. Cory Sandhagen (Split Decision)
• Aug. 13, 2022 – WIN vs. Dominick Cruz (KO/TKO)
• April 30, 2022 – WIN vs. Rob Front (Unanimous Decision)

Vera was able to shake off the loss against Cory Sandhagen with an impressive win over Pedro Munhoz in August. The 31-year-old MMA veteran stepped up when he needed it the most, but now has a much taller assignment against O’Malley.

O’Malley vs. Vera Betting Pick

I expect O’Malley to enter this fight with a much better mindset than he did four years ago against Vera. The champ has been thinking about that one loss on his resume for a while now.

While he can’t get it back, “Suga” can show to the public that the loss was a fluke. At UFC 299, this should be a case of O’Malley keeping Vera off-balance and not allowing him to dictate the pace.

When Vera is pressuring, he is as dangerous as there is in the UFC. However, don’t expect O’Malley to allow that to happen this time. The Irishman has learned a lot and is a much wiser fighter than he was back then.

The O’Malley vs. Vera odds are high in favor of “Suga”. At -240, the champion is the obvious odds-on favorite. I would appreciate better odds, but O’Malley appears to be the play regardless.

Mateusz Gamrot vs. Rafael Dos Anjos Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

• Mateusz Gamrot (-375)
• Rafael Dos Anjos (+290)

Veterans Mateusz Gamrot (23-2-0) and Rafael Dos Anjos (32-15-0) square off in a lightweight battle on the prelim card. Since joining the UFC in October 2020, Gamrot has been in impressive shape at the top level of MMA.

He will face one of the most experienced fighters in the promotion next. Dos Anjos made his UFC debut at UFC 91, back in 2008! Over 15 years later, the Brazilian is still appearing on UFC PPV fight cards. Let’s flush out the details of this fight and make our next UFC 299 prediction:

Tale Of The Tape/Fighting Styles

At this stage in Dos Anjos’ career, he doesn’t have any clear advantages matching up against Gamrot. Most notably, Dos Anjos won’t have the height or reach advantage at UFC 299.

Still, Dos Anjos’ striking ability is an asset. It helped him capture the UFC Lightweight Championship over Anthony Pettis in 2015. However, he’s slowed down considerably and doesn’t have the speed to consistently win at this level any longer.

Like Dos Anjos, Gamrot has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. And, similar to Dos Anjos, he likes to utilize Muay Thai in his fights. It’s hard to predict an advantage for any of the fighters based purely on style, so let’s look at their recent performances.

Fighter Form

Gamrot Recent Results:

• Sep. 23, 2023 – WIN vs. Rafael Fiziev (KO/TKO)
• March 4, 2023 – WIN vs. Jalin Turner (Split Decision)
• Oct. 22, 2022 – LOSS vs. Beneil Dariush (Unanimous Decision)
• Jun. 25, 2022 – WIN vs. Arman Tsarukyan (Unanimous Decision)

Gamrot sports an overall record in the UFC of 6-2. He is coming off a second-round win after Rafael Fiziev suffered a gruesome leg injury. Even with the fortunate victory, Gamrot was in good form before beating Fiziev.

Overall, he’s only lost two fights in his career. Gamrot fell in 2020 by a split decision to Guram Kutateladze, and lost against Beneil Dariush by unanimous decision two years later.

Dos Anjos Recent Results:

• Aug. 12, 2023 – LOSS vs. Vicente Luque (Unanimous Decision)
• Dec. 3, 2022 – WIN vs. Bryan Barerena (Submission)
• Jul. 9, 2022 – LOSS vs. Rafael Fiziev (KO/TKO)
• March. 5, 2022 – WIN vs. Renato Moicano (Unanimous Decision)

Dos Anjos has been inconsistent for the greater part of the last five years. Since losing a fight for the interim welterweight championship to Colby Covington in 2018, the veteran has a record of 4-5-0. Dos Anjos has also bounced between welterweight and lightweight over his last five fights.

As Dos Anjos ages and his motivation wanes, he is not the fighter he was seven to eight years ago.

Gamrot vs. Dos Anjos Betting Pick

I like Gamrot to run the tables over Dos Anjos simply because of where these guys stand in 2024. Dos Anjos is by far the more talented fighter, but he’s facing an opponent in the prime of his career. Gamrot is likely to wear Anjos down for a textbook victory in Miami.

He’s unlikely to score a KO/TKO win, but can outlast Dos Anjos by taking ground control. If this fight were five years ago, I’d probably have different thoughts. Not this time, though, as the native of Poland picks up a well-deserved win at UFC 299.

Petr Yan vs. Song Yadong Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

• Petr Yan (-138)
• Song Yadong (+115)

Let’s move back to the main card for our next UFC 299 betting pick. Petr Yan (16-5) takes on Song Yadong (21-7-1) in a bantamweight showdown. It’s an interesting fight between two martial artist who have been heading in different directions as of late.

After three consecutive losses, Yan is seeking an easy win to get some of his confidence back. The 31-year-old Russian has had opportunities against top-flight opponents, but he’s come up short since losing the bantamweight title to Aljamain Sterling in April 2022.

Tale Of The Tape/Fighting Styles

The height, weight, and reach comparison is nearly equal for the first bout on the main card.

A specialist in boxing, Yan uses his striking ability to gain an advantage over his opponents. He can change from fighting as a southpaw to orthodox without problems.

It can be tough to get a solid feel for Yan when he is effectively changing up his fighting stance. While Yan is known for his superior boxing skills, he can work in the clinch and has a formidable takedown game.

As an effective boxer in his own right, Song matches up well in what should make for an entertaining fight. Song is technically sound and precise offensively. I expect this to be one of the best bouts at UFC 299.

Fighter Form

Yan Recent Results:

• March 11, 2023 – LOSS vs. Merab Dvalishvili (Unanimous Decision)
• Oct. 22, 2022 – LOSS vs. Sean O’Malley (Split Decision)
• April 9, 2022 – LOSS vs. Aljamain Sterling (Split Decision)
• Oct. 30, 2021 – WIN vs. Cory Sandhagen (Unanimous Decision)

Yan is currently on the worst stretch of his UFC career. After looking so dominant on a ten-fight winning streak and with the bantamweight title around his waist, the former champ has dropped three straight fights (albeit, against the current champion, a former champion and the #1 contender in Dvalishvili).

Song Recent Results:

• Dec 9, 2023 – WIN vs. Chris Gutierrez (Unanimous Decision)
• April 29, 2023 – WIN vs. Ricky Simon (KO/TKO)
• Sep. 17, 2022 – LOSS vs. Cory Sandhagen (Doctor’s Stoppage)
• March 12, 2022 – WIN vs. Marlon Moraes (KO/TKO)

Song has been in great form in the Octagon recently. Although he’s won five of his previous six fights, Song must now show that he deserves more lucrative matchups in the UFC.

Yan vs. Song Betting Pick

Both fighters need this fight badly. Song is a win or two away from getting a title shot, while Yan might be a loss away from exiting the UFC.

The Russian should be able to keep his distance and take away Song’s grappling ability. If he gets too eager, he will likely fall right into Song’s trap. However, I expect Yan to be smarter after losing three fights in a row.

In a must-win spot for Yan, I expect him to beat Song to put his career back on track. This won’t be Joshua vs. Ngannou’s level of boxing, but it should be an entertaining bout that sees Yan finishing on top.

Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

• Kevin Holland (-130)
• Michael Page (+110)

As part of my best bets for UFC 299, I have Kevin Holland (25-10-0) vs. Michael Page (21-2-0) on my shortlist. This welterweight match features the debut of Page in the UFC.

After fighting in Bellator since 2013, it is time for Page to test himself at the next level. With just two losses on his resume, the British star deservingly got the call for a fight against Holland at UFC 299.

The American can’t afford to lose to a newcomer in the UFC this weekend after poor recent results, so he will be desperate to punish Page.

Tale Of The Tape/Fighting Styles

Holland has a reach advantage on Page, but otherwise this is a close fight on paper. The welterweights are the same height and weight, with both fighters physically equal. The 31-year-old Holland is a well-rounded fighter with a black belt in Kung Fu and Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Fighting out of Fort Worth, Texas, Holland has a tough right cross to defend against and has skill in the clinch.

Fighter Form

Holland Recent Results:

• Sep. 16, 2023 – LOSS vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Split Decision)
• July 29, 2023 – WIN vs. Michael Chiesa (Submission)
• April 8, 2023 – WIN vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (KO/TKO)
• Dec. 3, 2022 – LOSS vs. Stephen Thompson (KO/TKO)

Dana White is giving Holland a chance to redeem himself and move back into the top-10 of the welterweight division. Currently, Holland is ranked 13th in the UFC. That is not good enough.

A loss by split decision against Jack Della Maddalena isn’t the way to improve that ranking, either. Beating Michael Chiesa and Santiago Ponzinibbio is fine, though it’s not moving the meter for me.

Page Recent Results:

• March 10, 2023 – WIN vs. Goiti Yamauchi (KO/TKO)
• May 13, 2022 – LOSS vs. Logan Storley (Split Decision)
• Oct. 1, 2021 – WIN vs. Douglas Lima (Split Decision)
• May 7, 2021 – WIN vs. Derek Anderson (Doctor’s Stoppage)

Following wins in seven of his previous eight tilts in Bellator, Page finally gets a much-awaited fight in the UFC. Holland is a step-up in class, so let’s see how he handles his first assignment in the “big leagues”.

Holland vs. Page Betting Pick

I am considering Page, who’s a slight underdog at UFC 299. If the former Bellator fighter can avoid Holland taking this fight to the mat, this is going to be a good spot for the UFC rookie to win in his debut.

Page’s unorthodox style makes him a difficult fighter to study and prepare for in the Octagon. Also, motivation-wise, all of it must be on Page’s side at UFC 299. He has waited a long time for this moment, and I don’t anticipate him falling flat after making it this far.

Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Dustin Poirier Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

• Benoit Saint-Denis (-170)
• Dustin Poirier (+141)

The UFC 299 co-main event is expected to be a barn burner between a wily veteran and rising star. Benoit Saint-Denis (13-1-0) believes that his time has arrived in the UFC.

The 28-year-old native of Nimes, France, has quietly asserted himself as one of the best fighters in the lightweight division. If he wants to continue ascending in the division, a win over 35-year-old Dustin Poirier (29-8-0) is required.

Tale Of The Tape/Fighting Styles

“God of War” has a height and reach advantage on Poirer in the co-main event. Otherwise, Saint-Denis and Poirier match up well for this bout.

Saint-Denis fights out of the southpaw stance and flourishes when he is wrestling his opponents. The 13-1-0 Frenchman uses strong kicks to set up a move to the mat.

As you may already know, Poirier is one of the most feared strikers in the lightweight division. He is proficient against opponents with his left or right hand. At 35 years old, has Poirier lost some luster?

Fighter Form

Saint-Denis Recent Results:

• Nov. 11, 2023 – WIN vs. Matt Frevola (KO/TKO)
• Sep. 2, 2023 – WIN vs. Thiago Moises (KO/TKO)
• July 1, 2023 – WIN vs. Ismael Bonfim (Submission)
• Sep. 3, 2022 – WIN vs. Gabriel Miranda (KO/TKO)

Saint-Denis enters the biggest match of his career with five consecutive victories. Three of his previous five wins have been by KO/TKO, with the other two coming by submission.

Although Saint-Denis has preferred to tap out foes for wins in his career, he has developed another element of his game, standing up. If Saint-Denis defeats Poirier, it likely comes on the ground.

Poirier Recent Results:

• July 29, 2023 – LOSS vs. Justin Gaethje (KO/TKO)
• Nov. 12, 2022 – WIN vs. Michael Chandler (Submission)
• Dec. 11, 2021 – LOSS vs. Charles Oliveira (Submission)
• July 10, 2021 – WIN vs. Conor McGregor (Doctor’s Stoppage)

Poirier returns to the Octagon following a devastating KO loss to Justin Gaethje at UFC 291. After defeating the same opponent in 2018, Poirier was unable to finish him this past July.

The defeat stopped any momentum “The Diamond” collected from his win over Michael Chandler.

Saint-Denis vs. Poirier Betting Pick

There is plenty of hype surrounding Saint-Denis in the UFC. Is the hype warranted or not? At least for this bout versus Poirier, Saint-Denis should prove that he can back up the hype with a win.

I expect the Frenchman to win the fight by controlling his opponent on the ground. The 28-year-old will likely be successful in avoiding Poirier’s devastating strikes by turning this into a fight for ground control.

Consider Saint-Denis winning this via a submission or decision from the judges.

More Betting Odds for UFC 299

If you are looking for updated UFC 299 betting odds for every fight, I recommend checking out the lines at Bovada. Also, for new UFC bettors, make sure to check out The Sports Geek’s UFC betting guide.

Regarded as one of the safest online betting sites, Bovada has everything you need for making your UFC 299 picks, including on the main card, prelims, and early prelims.

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