The UFC 326 odds for Saturday’s main card in Las Vegas feature some sizeable favorites, including for the main event between “BMF” champion Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Can “Do Bronx” claim the upset in this rematch?
I’ll give you UFC 326 predictions for every fight on the card, and analyze three matches in more detail.
UFC 326 Odds and Predictions Summary
| FIGHT | BETTING FAVORITE | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira | Max Holloway (-213) | Max Holloway (-213) |
| Caio Borralho vs. Reiner de Ridder | Caio Borralho (-245) | Caio Borralho (-245) |
| Rob Font vs. Raul Rosas Jr. | Raul Rosas Jr. (-250) | Raul Rosas Jr. (-250) |
| Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober | Michael Johnson (-117) | Michael Johnson (-117) |
| Gregory Rodrigues vs. Brunno Ferreira | Gregory Rodrigues (-176) | Gregory Rodrigues (-176) |
| Cody Garbrandt vs. Xaio Long | Xaio Long (-164) | Cody Garbrandt (+138) |
| Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes | Alberto Montes (-190) | Alberto Montes (-190) |
| Rafael Tobias vs. Diyar Nurgozhay | Rafael Tobias (-186) | Diyar Nurgozhay (+157) |
| Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-168) | Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (-168) |
| Su Mudaerji vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar | Su Mudaerji (-225) | Su Mudaerji (-225) |
| Luke Fernandez vs. Rodolfo Bellato | Luke Fernandez (-235) | Luke Fernandez (-235) |
| Donte Johnson vs. Cody Brundage | Donte Johnson (-850) | Donte Johnson (-850) |
| Jeong-Young Lee vs. Gaston Bolanos | Jeong-Young Lee (-335) | Jeong-Young Lee (-335) |
Max Holloway (-213) is an unsurprising favorite at UFC betting sites here, with an implied probability of 68% to retain the “BMF” title against Oliveira (+176). If nothing else, this fight will be explosive for however long it goes.
In the co-main event, Caio Borralho (-245) has a 71% implied probability (down from 73.7% on Monday) to beat Reiner de Ridder (+200) in a middleweight clash. The winner will move closer to a title shot in a crowded 185-pound division.
But you should check out the UFC 327 betting props for these two matches as there is some value in the Fight Method odds!
You can find the latest UFC 326 odds at Lucky Rebel by going to Sports > UFC/MMA > UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2.
Max Holloway vs. Charles Oliveira Odds and Prediction
• Max Holloway (-213)
• Charles Oliveira (+176)
Holloway (27-8) won the BMF title over Justin Gaethje in an April 2024 classic, and defended it against Dustin Poirier in July 2025 in Poirier’s retirement match.
He was knocked out by then-featherweight champ Ilia Topuria in October 2024 before Topuria moved up to win the lightweight belt. But Holloway, a former featherweight champion, is already a UFC legend and future Hall of Famer, and is one of the greatest strikers in the history of the organization.
Oliveira (36-11, 1 NC) is a former lightweight champion whose career hasn’t been as good as it should be. He was stripped of the 155-pound belt for missing weight before a fight against Gaethje, which Oliveira won.
The Brazilian has also lost two matches for a vacant belt, albeit against all-time greats Islam Makhachev and Topuria. “Do Bronx” has the most submission wins in UFC history with 17 and is also decent striker, but he has been stopped nine times (five by KO, four by submission).
Oliveira and Max fought in August 2015, but it lasted just 1:39 as Oliveira suffered a neck injury. There’s not much you can take from that match, but I know Holloway is more durable overall.
“Blessed” also has excellent best takedown defense. Oliveira has the upper hand if the fight goes to the mat, but Holloway should stay on his feet for most of it. If Oliveira points down at the center of the cage and wants to trade with Holloway, he’s in big trouble.
I prefer Max Holloway for my UFC 326 betting predictions because he can limit Oliveira’s BJJ, while punishing him on the feet. I also think Holloway can finish Oliveira, especially as the fight gets longer. So I’m recommending a wager on Holloway Inside Distance at +135 in my UFC 326 betting picks, aiming to get a higher return on “Blessed”!
Caio Borralho vs. Reiner de Ridder Odds and Prediction
• Caio Borralho (-245)
• Reiner de Ridder (+200)
Borralho (17-2, 1 NC) had a 17-fight unbeaten streak (there was a no-contest from June 2018 in there) snapped in September 2025 when he lost to Nassourdine Imavov. “The Natural” was outclassed by Imamov, who might be next in line for a title fight against champion Khazmat Chimaev.
The Brazilian is a balanced fighter with nine finishes (five KOs and four submissions), but he can also grind you down with eight wins by unanimous decision.
De Ridder (21-3) is much more of a submission specialist with 13 wins by tapout, and he had a five-fight win streak snapped by Brendan Allen in October 2025. I worry about the durability of “The Dutch Knight” as all three of his losses have come via stoppage.
He has also lost twice by being unable to continue, including against Allen. He looked great against Bo Nickal and Robert Whittaker, but de Ridder has shown he can be beaten into submission.
I’m leaning towards Borralho in my UFC 326 betting picks, simply for that reason. The Dutchman is an excellent grappler, but Borralho can handle himself on the mat. But if he keeps the fight standing, Borralho can knock de Ridder out.
I waited on Fight Method odds for a Borralho Inside Distance prop, and I’m glad I did! Give me Caio Borralho Inside Distance for UFC 326 betting odds of +185 for a better return.
Michael Johnson vs. Drew Dober Odds and Prediction
• Michael Johnson (-117)
• Drew Dober (+102)
An intriguing fight from the lightweight division caps off my UFC 326 betting preview. Johnson (24-19) has won three in a row after a tough stretch where he lost six of eight by various methods. But “The Menace” has knockout power if he catches his opponent, as Johnson has won ten fights by TKO/KO.
Dober (28-15, 1 NC) has lost four of his last six, but like Johnson, he can end a fight quickly. The Nebraska native has won 15 fights by knockout, and he fights to give the crowd a show, which can be to his detriment. Only one of his last nine fights has gone to the scorecards. One way or another, it’s going to be a fun fight.
I’m going with Michael Johnson at -117 in my UFC 326 betting picks here, as he’s strategic enough to avoid his opponent’s best shots, and land a few of his own. Dober can be too reckless, so I’m with Johnson for this one.
Where to Bet on UFC 326 Odds?
My UFC 326 betting predictions are:
- Max Holloway Inside Distance (+135)
- Caio Borralho Inside Distance (+185)
- Michael Johnson (-117)
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