The early NFL first coach fired odds for 2025 have Miami’s Mike McDaniel on the hot seat. However, things can change quickly in football, so other candidates could easily “surpass” him and get the boot.
Let’s explore the NFL coaches most likely to get fired first, the betting odds on them, and the best betting prediction.
2025 NFL First Coach Fired Odds
Check out the table below for the updated first NFL coach to get fired odds, courtesy of BetUS.
| COACH | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) | -500 |
| Brian Daboll (Giants) | +600 |
| Kevin Stefanski (Browns) | +650 |
| Dave Canales (Panthers) | +800 |
| Brian Callahan (Titans) | +800 |
| Raheem Morris (Falcons) | +900 |
| Shane Steichen (Colts) | +1000 |
| Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) | +2200 |
| Zac Taylor (Bengals) | +3000 |
| Todd Bowles (Buccaneers) | +3000 |
Following Week 1 action, Miami Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel’s (-500) odds to be fired have skyrocketed. According to the best NFL betting sites, McDaniel has a massive 83.3% implied probability to be the first coach canned in 2025.
This is an overwhelming shift from the preseason, where McDaniel was favored but had a +200 price. In other words, McDaniel’s implied chance has moved from 33.3% to 83.3% in just one week! It was an embarrassing performance for the Dolphins, who were humiliated on the road against the Colts.
Aside from McDaniel, the New York Giants’ Brian Daboll (+600) has the second-best NFL first coach fired betting odds. There is a significant drop from McDaniel, though, with Daboll having a 14.3% chance on a struggling Giants squad. Kevin Stefanski (+650) of the Cleveland Browns is also in the running, with a 13.3% probability.
If you already see a good bet on the board, you can find the odds at BetUS by going to Sports > NFL Specials > Coaches.
NFL Coaches Fired in 2024
-
- Robert Saleh – New York Jets
- Matt Eberflus – Chicago Bears
- Antonio Pierce – Las Vegas Raiders
- Doug Pederson – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jerod Mayo – New England Patriots
- Dennis Allen – New Orleans Saints
- Mike McCarthy – Dallas Cowboys
Robert Saleh’s surprise firing after the team’s Week 5 loss to the Vikings in London set the tone for coaches on the hot seat last season. Matt Eberflus and Dennis Allen joined Saleh as coaches fired mid-season.
After the regular season ended, three other teams quickly moved on from their coaches. Antonio Pierce, Doug Pederson, and Jerod Mayo were all fired before Wild Card Weekend.
Mike McCarthy technically was not fired. However, the Cowboys did not renew his contract, and, on January 13th, McCarthy officially parted ways with the team.
NFL Coaches Most Likely to be Fired in 2025
Losing a job is never fun, but sometimes it is what is best for everyone involved. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the NFL coach firing odds entering the 2025 season.
Mike McDaniel (-500)
The Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel tops the list of NFL coaches most likely to be fired first this season. McDaniel has the shortest odds of any coach at -500. After a lifeless performance against the Colts, McDaniel’s seat became red-hot.
Daniel Jones and Indianapolis blew out the Dolphins in a 33-8 drubbing at Lucas Oil Stadium. The body language of McDaniel pretty much told the entire story. He and his team looked defeated in only Week 1!
Following the game, the team held a players’ only meeting without McDaniel or the coaching staff being present. That’s a concerning development for McDaniel, who can’t be feeling too comfortable right now.
🎥 Mike McDaniel on Tua Tagovailoa’s performance vs. Colts: “I saw QB play that was less than to be desired, which Tua absolutely knows. He’s the captain and franchise QB… I don’t want to make the same mistakes twice.” (@MiamiDolphins) #PhinsUp pic.twitter.com/aHvnMgIZfH
— FinsXtra (@FinsXtra) September 10, 2025
He joined the team in 2022 and helped Miami earn postseason berths in each of his first two seasons. However, the team went 0-2 in those appearances and has struggled to stay competitive in cold games.
McDaniel can quiet a lot of doubters this season if the Dolphins’ offense returns to its explosive form. However, if the team is bitten by the injury bug again this year, then ownership could decide to tear down the team and start over. That would likely include moving on from McDaniel, as well as highly paid players such as Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa.
After one week, the Dolphins are a mess, even with Tagovailoa and Hill on the field, so I don’t have any optimism for things improving in Miami. If injuries hit the Dolphins hard, then this has a chance to be the worst team in the NFL.
This market is for the coach who will be fired first this season. For McDaniel to earn that honor, the team would need to start slowly. Losing their early divisional matchups, especially the ones against the Patriots (Week 2) and the Jets (Week 4), would all but seal McDaniel’s fate.
Brian Daboll (+600)
Another offensive-minded head coach entering this season on the hot seat is Brian Daboll. The Giants’ head coach is listed at 4-1 odds to be the first head coach fired this season. At this price, Daboll offers an implied win probability of 20%.
Frustrations boiled over as WR Malik Nabers and Daboll argued on the sideline in the middle of the game. Nabers explained after the contest that he was simply trying to get the offense going. I expect the Giants’ offense to continue to sputter, so Daboll’s seat will get hotter.
Brian Daboll & Malik Nabers discussing something pic.twitter.com/g4aEMp7YKv
— Bobby Skinner (@BobbySkinner_) September 7, 2025
Like McDaniel, Daboll assumed his position as head coach in 2022. He also had early success with the team, getting the Giants to the postseason with Daniel Jones under center. Daboll and New York even won a playoff game that season.
Unfortunately, Daboll has not been able to recreate that success since. He is 18-33-1 as a head coach in the regular season. After going 9-7-1 and making the playoffs in year one, Daboll has earned just a 9-26 record since.
The front office’s overcommitment to Daniel Jones and the decision not to re-sign Saquon Barkley hurt the team last year. Now, Daboll must fight for his job with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston as his top passers.
Wilson did nothing to impress in the opening week. He looked like a quarterback who was ready to hang up his pads.
Kevin Stefanski (+650)
As the Browns continue to search for answers, Kevin Stefanski could be the first head coach fired. He was listed at 10-1 odds to be the next head coach fired last October, so Stefanski’s chance of receiving a pink slip has improved.
Kevin Stefanski on naming Joe Flacco the starter pic.twitter.com/o53g6uhHdG
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 19, 2025
Stefanski avoided being axed, but he may be running out of lives. The two-time Coach of the Year is 40-45 in the regular season since taking over as the Browns’ head coach. He is also 1-2 in playoff games, but the “win” he is credited with came while Stefanski was at home with Covid.
Cleveland’s front office did Stefanski no favors this year with its roster construction. The team drafted two quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, but neither is ready to start. Instead, the Browns will be relying on 40-year-old Joe Flacco.
Stefanski isn’t to blame for having to work with an offense that featured Flacco and not a franchise quarterback.
The defense is doing what it can to keep the Browns competitive, but the team needs a quarterback to spark the offense. That isn’t going to happen this season.
The Browns also drafted two running backs to try to replace Nick Chubb, who left in free agency. However, due to a summer plagued with legal issues, second-round pick RB Quinshon Judkins still has not signed a contract. A depleted roster and quarterback issues could end Stefanski’s time in Cleveland. However, I see a few other coaches more likely to be fired first than Stefanki.
Dave Canales (+800)
Another head coach on the hot seat is the Carolina Panthers’ Dave Canales. The Panthers aim to see progress this season and expect it after retooling their defense and with QB Bryce Young in his third NFL season.
There are no more excuses for Young, who has to play like a franchise quarterback in 2025-26. The front office has given Canales the most tools he’s had on his toolbelt since taking the job in January 2024.
The former Buccaneers’ OC took over as Carolina’s head coach last year. He led the team to a 5-12 record in his first season.
It is also worth noting that David Tepper, the team’s owner, is not known for his patience.
Carolina won two of its last three games to end 2024, with both wins coming in OT. However, if that doesn’t translate to wins in 2025, then Canales is going to be under pressure regardless. In the season opener, the Panthers were outmatched against a beatable Jaguars squad in a 26-10 loss.
I expect Canales to survive the regular season, but if a hotter coaching commodity is available in the offseason, I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s fired without hesitation.
Brian Callahan (+800)
Tennessee Titans’ head coach Brian Callahan shares the same next NFL coach firing odds as Canales at +800. Callahan has an 11.1% implied chance to receive the dubious honor.
He is in his second season as head coach of the Titans after taking over for the dismissed Mike Vrabel. Last season, Callahan went through growing pains with a stripped-down roster, finishing 3-14 at the bottom of the AFC South.
The organization drafted rookie QB Cam Ward with the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. There is another transition for the Titans, who are in full rebuild mode. Ward is a talented quarterback, but he’s being thrown into the fire without much help. He needs time to develop.
it’s only Week 1, and Brian Callahan is already on the verge of asking a reporter if they want to take it outside pic.twitter.com/KdwIvPVbHk
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) September 8, 2025
There isn’t much pressure on Callahan to succeed this season. He’s going to get at least another year on the sidelines, so betting on Callahan to be fired at +800 isn’t the best wager on the board.
Next NFL Coach Fired Predictions and Betting Pick
McDaniel is the odds-on favorite as the first head coach to hear the dreaded four-letter word this season. However, at -500 odds, there is no value betting on McDaniel at this price now. This is such a wide-open prop bet that laying -500 odds isn’t advised.
Instead of McDaniel, Daboll is attracting fantastic value to be called to the unemployment line. While the body language is terrible in Miami, the same can equally be said in New York for the Giants. They have their star wide receiver and head coach yelling at one another in Week 1!
Wilson’s career is circling down the drain, and he is showing no signs of being motivated to play well. If Daboll makes the call to Jameis Winston or Dart, the results are unlikely to change much. McDaniel is the huge favorite, but I’ll take my chances on Daboll at this great value at +600!
Where to Bet on the Next NFL Head Coach to be Fired?
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