The early NFL first coach fired odds for 2025 have Miami’s Mike McDaniel on the hot seat. However, things can change quickly in football, so other candidates could easily “surpass” him and get the boot.
Let’s explore the NFL coaches most likely to get fired first, the betting odds on them, and the best betting prediction.
2025 NFL First Coach Fired Odds
Check out the table below for the updated first NFL coach to get fired odds, courtesy of BetUS.
| Coach | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) | +200 |
| Brian Daboll (Giants) | +400 |
| Shane Steichen (Colts) | +700 |
| Dave Canales (Panthers) | +700 |
| Kevin Stefanski (Browns) | +700 |
| Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) | +800 |
| Zac Taylor (Bengals) | +900 |
| Brian Callahan (Titans) | +1600 |
| Kyle Shanahan (49ers) | +1600 |
| Raheem Morris (Falcons) | +1800 |
Mike McDaniel is 28-25 as the Dolphins head coach and has led Miami to two playoff appearances. However, after missing the postseason last year, the pressure is on this year in South Beach.
Other NFL coaches joining McDaniel on the hot seat include the Giants’ Brian Daboll (+400) and the Colts’ Shane Steichen (+700), who have the second- and third-best odds to be the first coach fired. Carolina’s Dave Canales and Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski are tied with Steichen at 7-1 odds each.
If you already see a good bet on the board, you can find the odds at BetUS by going to Sports > NFL Specials > Coaches.
NFL Coaches Fired in 2024
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- Robert Saleh – New York Jets
- Matt Eberflus – Chicago Bears
- Antonio Pierce – Las Vegas Raiders
- Doug Pederson – Jacksonville Jaguars
- Jerod Mayo – New England Patriots
- Dennis Allen – New Orleans Saints
- Mike McCarthy – Dallas Cowboys
Robert Saleh’s surprise firing after the team’s Week 5 loss to the Vikings in London set the tone for coaches on the hot seat last season. Matt Eberflus and Dennis Allen joined Saleh as coaches fired mid-season.
After the regular season ended, three other teams quickly moved on from their coaches. Antonio Pierce, Doug Pederson, and Jerod Mayo were all fired before Wild Card Weekend.
Mike McCarthy technically was not fired. However, the Cowboys did not renew his contract, and, on January 13th, McCarthy officially parted ways with the team.
NFL Coaches Most Likely to be Fired in 2025
Losing a job is never fun, but sometimes it is what is best for everyone involved. With that in mind, let’s take a closer look at the NFL coach firing odds entering the 2025 season.
Mike McDaniel (+200)
The Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel tops the list of NFL coaches most likely to be fired first this season. McDaniel has the shortest odds of any coach at +200.
Mike McDaniel: I’m expecting to see Darren Waller sooner than later. https://t.co/MnCAUiQArq
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) August 19, 2025
He joined the team in 2022 and helped Miami earn postseason berths in each of his first two seasons. However, the team went 0-2 in those appearances and has struggled to stay competitive in cold games.
McDaniel can quiet a lot of doubters this season if the Dolphins’ offense returns to its explosive form. However, if the team is bitten by the injury bug again this year, then ownership could decide to tear down the team and start over. That would likely include moving on from McDaniel, as well as highly paid players such as Tyreek Hill and Tua Tagovailoa.
This market is for the coach who will be fired first this season. For McDaniel to earn that honor, the team would need to start slowly. Losing their early divisional matchups, especially the ones against the Patriots (Week 2) and the Jets (Week 4), would all but seal McDaniel’s fate.
Brian Daboll (+400)
Another offensive-minded head coach entering this season on the hot seat is Brian Daboll. The Giants’ head coach is listed at 4-1 odds to be the first head coach fired this season. At this price, Daboll offers an implied win probability of 20%.
Like McDaniel, Daboll assumed his position as head coach in 2022. He also had early success with the team, getting the Giants to the postseason with Daniel Jones under center. Daboll and New York even won a playoff game that season.
Unfortunately, Daboll has not been able to recreate that success since. He is 18-32-1 as a head coach in the regular season. After going 9-7-1 and making the playoffs in year one, Daboll has earned just a 9-25 record since.
The front office’s overcommitment to Daniel Jones and the decision not to re-sign Saquon Barkley hurt the team last year. Now, Daboll must fight for his job with Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston as his top passers.
However, he also has rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart to work with. Giving the rookie significant playing time could buy Daboll another year, even if the team has another losing record.
Shane Steichen (+700)
Three coaches are tied at 7-1 odds at the top football betting sites to be the first head coach fired this season. The first is Shane Steichen, the coach of the Indianapolis Colts.
Coach Steichen announces Daniel Jones as starting QB. pic.twitter.com/wx6yIWr5Zy
— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) August 19, 2025
Steichen is 17-17 so far as Indy’s head coach. However, unlike the other coaches on the hot seat this season, the owner who signed off on Steichen as the coach is no longer there. Colts’ owner Jim Irsay passed away this summer, and his daughters now own the team.
In addition to a change in ownership, Steichen’s success will also be severely limited by his quarterback options. After a training camp battle, the Colts announced that Daniel Jones will be the team’s starter this season.
As mentioned above, Jones is part of the reason Daboll is on the hot seat in New York. He has a 24-44-1 record as a starter and was cut by the Giants midseason last year. Betting the team’s success on Jones could cost Steichen his job this season.
Dave Canales (+700)
Another coach listed at +700 odds to be the first HC fired in 2025 is Dave Canales. The former Buccaneers’ OC took over as Carolina’s head coach last year. He led the team to a 5-12 record in his first season.
It is also worth noting that David Tepper, the team’s owner, is not known for his patience.
Carolina won two of its last three games to end 2024, with both wins coming in OT. The late success, combined with improved play from QB Bryce Young, has raised the expectations for the Panthers heading into 2025.
BetUS lists Carolina’s 2025 win total at around 6.5 games. However, even getting seven wins will be challenging given the Panthers’ roster. Another slow start this season could also cut Canales’s time short in his first stint as an NFL head coach.
On the bright side, Carolina’s early schedule has multiple winnable games. If the Panthers can pick up a couple of wins early, Canales could avoid being the first coach fired.
Kevin Stefanski (+700)
The third coach tied at +700 to be relieved of their duties first is Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland’s head coach is no stranger to the hot seat, either. He was listed at 10-1 odds to be the next head coach fired last October.
Kevin Stefanski on naming Joe Flacco the starter pic.twitter.com/o53g6uhHdG
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) August 19, 2025
Stefanski avoided being axed, but he may be running out of lives. The two-time Coach of the Year is 40-44 in the regular season since taking over as the Browns’ head coach. He is also 1-2 in playoff games, but the “win” he is credited with came while Stefanski was at home with Covid.
Cleveland’s front office did Stefanski no favors this year with its roster construction. The team drafted two quarterbacks, Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, but neither is ready to start. Instead, the Browns will be relying on 40-year-old Joe Flacco.
The Browns also drafted two running backs to try to replace Nick Chubb, who left in free agency. However, due to a summer plagued with legal issues, second-round pick RB Quinshon Judkins still has not signed a contract. A depleted roster and quarterback issues could end Stefanski’s time in Cleveland.
Next NFL Coach Fired Predictions and Betting Pick
Firing a coach mid-season is always a risky move, especially if you have a young quarterback. However, moving on from a coach early can give a franchise a head start on its next coaching search. Extra time is especially helpful if the team is committing to a full rebuild.
With that in mind, I think the first head coach fired will be either Mike McDaniel (+200) or Shane Steichen (+700).
McDaniel is the favorite, but he has the better roster, and the Dolphins should win games early if Tua can stay healthy. Furthermore, the odds of +200 are not high enough to justify a bet on him.
Steichen, on the other hand, is dealing with new ownership and does not have a quarterback. The Colts’ coach is my pick to be the first HC fired this year because I simply can’t ignore the high odds for a guy that could be out of the door soon.
Where to Bet on the Next NFL Head Coach to be Fired?
BetUS is the best place to wager on the updated NFL first coach fired odds. It has competitive odds on dozens of coaches who could get the axe this season.
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