Welcome to our daily WNBA picks for Monday, September 21, 2026! Each day, I analyze the WNBA schedule and odds, check the latest team news, and prepare my predictions and best bets.
Here are my best WNBA bets for today:
Daily WNBA Picks for September 21
| WNBA BETTING PICK | ONLINE BOOKMAKER |
|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty (+110) | Lucky Rebel |
| Dallas Wings -5.5 (-115) vs. Phoenix Mercury | Lucky Rebel |
Best WNBA Predictions Today (With Reasoning), September 21
There are important things to know before betting on the WNBA. Fortunately, if you can’t do your own research, you can see exactly how we arrived at each of our WNBA picks today and the key factors that influenced our analysis.
Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty: Liberty (+110)
The Atlanta Dream (28-14) come in as road favorites at WNBA betting sites, which means the oddsmakers believe Atlanta is the better team. But the market is asking you to lay juice to back them. At -130, you’d need to bet $130 just to win $100. That price gets a lot harder to justify when you look at how Atlanta has actually performed against the spread this season. The Dream are just 8-10 ATS as a road favorite and 9-11 ATS overall.
27-piece from Stew York! 🔥@breannastewart is our Player of the game! 💪 pic.twitter.com/E6eopsR8CP
— New York Liberty (@nyliberty) September 20, 2026
New York (26-16), on the other hand, has been solid at home, going 11-9 ATS on their own floor. They’re also 1-0 as a home underdog this season. This is a small sample, but it shows this team doesn’t wilt when the books disrespect them. Add in the fact that Breanna Stewart has been playing at a very high level since the FIBA break, and she was the MVP of the Women’s World Cup. The Liberty have a genuine star performing at her peak heading into this one.
Getting +110 on the Liberty means a $100 bet wins $110. When a team with home-court advantage, a strong ATS record at home, and a star player in form is available as a plus-money underdog, that’s where the value lives. Atlanta’s road favorite ATS struggles make this an easy lean toward New York.
Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury: Wings -5.5 (-115)
Dallas (26-16) is fighting for playoff position, and that urgency matters. The Wings just beat Phoenix (15-27) 87-82 at home this past Saturday, and now they travel to face a Mercury squad that has already been eliminated from postseason contention. When one team is playing for something and the other is playing out the string, that motivation gap tends to show up in the final score.
mercury blurry burry not worthy @belk | #WingsUp pic.twitter.com/mHKxfon8mt
— Dallas Wings (@DallasWings) September 19, 2026
Phoenix’s home record against the spread tells its own story this season. The Mercury are just 7-13 ATS at home, which is one of the worst marks in the league. On top of that, Kaleah Copper is listed as questionable, which would further thin out a Phoenix roster that has little reason to push through adversity right now.
Yes, Dallas is 3-6 ATS as a road favorite, and that number deserves respect. But the combination of a playoff-motivated opponent, a banged-up Mercury squad, and Phoenix’s poor home ATS record tips the scales firmly toward the Wings. The juice on Dallas (-115) is reasonable for the spot they’re in.
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