How To Bet on NFL Point Spread
How Does NFL Spread Betting Work?
Football spread betting is fairly easy to understand. Also known as NFL handicap betting, this market helps balance out an uneven matchup. The bookies give the favorite a point deficit, while the underdog receives a head start.
Here’s an example of a typical NFL spread:
| Team | Point Spread | Odds |
|---|---|---|
Kansas City Chiefs  | -7.5 | -110 |
Las Vegas Raiders | +7.5 | -105 |
In this example, the Kansas City Chiefs are favored to defeat the Las Vegas Raiders. The negative point spread signifies Kansas City as the favorite. To win the bet, the Chiefs must win by eight or more points.
As the moneyline underdog, Las Vegas has a positive NFL point spread. Betting on the Raiders to cover the spread means you predict that they’ll lose by seven points or fewer. Even if the Raiders lose the game, the second bet would land because the Chiefs failed to cover.
If you want NFL spread betting explained in a different format, we also dive deeper in our NFL betting guide.
Betting Against the Spread vs Covering the Spread
Essentially, there are two main options for NFL handicapping. The first is betting against the spread (ATS). The second is betting on the spread (covering the spread). It’s time to take a closer look at how each market works.
Betting Against the Spread
NFL betting against the spread involves wagering on a team to perform better than the bookies’ projection. For the bet to succeed, the moneyline favorite must win by a margin greater than the spread. The underdog must also win or lose by a smaller margin.
Example of Betting Against the Spread:
Let’s use the same example from before. If you bet on the Chiefs ATS, they must win by eight points or more for your wager to be successful. If you bet on the Raiders ATS, they must either win the game or lose by seven points or fewer. With the Chiefs priced at -110, you must wager $110 to win $100. If you want to back the Raiders at -105, a $105 wager would return $100 as well.Covering the Spread
When betting on an NFL spread, sportsbooks try to level the playing field by introducing a virtual points handicap. So, when you bet on a team to cover the spread, you’re backing them to perform well enough to make your bet successful.
Example of Covering the Spread:
For example, the New England Patriots (-6.5) are favored to defeat the Miami Dolphins (+6.5). If the Patriots win 27-20, they win by seven points, covering the spread. If the Dolphins lose 24-20, they lose by only four points, and also cover.Half-Point and Full-Point NFL Spreads
If you’re already familiar with NFL point spread betting, you might notice that sportsbooks offer half-point and full-point lines. Of course, it’s impossible to score half a point in football. But it makes sense from a betting perspective.
Bookmakers use half points to eliminate the possibility of a “push”, which returns a bet if the outcome is tied. When full points are used, there is a chance that neither team will win the spread market.
Half-Point & Full-Point Spread Examples:
Let’s say that the Pittsburgh Steelers (-4) are favored to defeat the Baltimore Ravens (+4). If the Steelers win by four points, they cover the number. If the Steelers win by only two points, they fail to cover. However, if the Steelers win by exactly three points, the bet will be pushed. Meanwhile, a different sportsbook may list the line at 2.5. If the Steelers win by three points, they cover the spread. If the Steelers win by two points, they fail to cover. There is no possibility of a push in this instance.Alternative NFL Spread Lines
Bookmakers normally offer one main NFL spread line, with odds ranging from -110 to +110. However, you can also find several other lines with higher and lower handicaps. These bets give you the chance to be more adventurous or conservative, depending on the odds.
Generally speaking, smaller point spreads have lower odds, while bigger ones have higher odds. Smaller spreads are easier to predict, meaning the bookies won’t offer big payouts. Larger NFL spreads are more difficult to predict, so you can expect to find more attractive odds.
Different Types of NFL Point Spreads
Now that you understand the NFL spread, let’s check out the other types of bets available. The traditional NFL point spread line relates to the entire game, but there are also alternative lines on specific portions of the game. Bovada in particular has a large collection of alternate spreads to choose from, including those below.
How are NFL Spreads Determined?
For bookmakers, determining the spread of football betting lines is a multi-step process. First, they study both teams by analyzing large sets of historical data. They look at current form, recent trends, head-to-head records, and other factors like injuries and home advantage.
For example, the bookmakers’ projections indicate that the Buffalo Bills will likely score 22.4 points against the New York Jets, who’ll likely score 17.5 points. The difference between the expected points is 4.9, so the bookies will initially set the main line at four points.
Sportsbooks also need to figure out how much money to place on each side of the spread. If they expect the same amount for both sides, they will keep the line around the initial mark and offer relatively close odds.
Meanwhile, if the bookmakers expect players to wager more money on one of the teams, they’ll move the odds or the line in the necessary direction. Ultimately, bookies aim to balance the books and allocate the bets equally. This ensures they make a profit, irrespective of the game’s outcome.
It is also worth remembering that football spreads nearly always fluctuate in the lead-up to the game. Sportsbooks will change their odds based on betting activity, so keep an eye on the NFL point spread days, hours, and minutes before the game.
For example, the Dallas Cowboys have one of the biggest fanbases in the NFL, and a lot of money comes in on them. That means the sportsbooks have to balance the lines to get equal money on both sides.
Best Sportsbooks for NFL Spread Betting
Bovada Top Choice for New NFL Bettors
Bovada offers competitive NFL odds and lines for the regular season, post-season and Super Bowl. Most odds range from even-money to -120 on spreads. With close to 400 overall betting markets for every NFL game and alternate lines ranging all the way to 9 points on the favorite and underdog, players can essentially choose the way they want to bet any game. First-half spreads and combo spread + total props give even more ways to bet.
The site is simple to use with a mobile-friendly interface, an excellent live betting section, and a range of deposit methods including crypto. The 100% up to $1,000 welcome bonus makes Bovada a great choice for new players.
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Everygame Great for NFL Spread Betting
Everygame offers a solid NFL betting experience with competitive odds, tons of weekly game lines, and a wide range of props. Not only does the site provide point spreads for every NFL game, but you’ll also find adjusted spreads for the first quarter and first half to give you even more action.
The sportsbook frequently runs NFL-specific promotions and parlay boosts that add extra value. New bettors will find the layout intuitive, while experienced players can appreciate the reliable live betting and early odds releases each week.
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Mobile-friendly platform with a dedicated mobile bonus.
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Limited cryptocurrency options.
Tips for Betting on the NFL Point Spread
Building a profitable NFL spread betting strategy is possible, but you must consider several factors. Lucky for you, we’ve compiled a list of beginner tips to help you get started.
1. Look at Offensive and Defensive Data
Studying offensive and defensive numbers will help visualize how the game might pan out. Some teams regularly score plenty of points, while others keep things tight in defense. Your job is to learn about the traits of the teams you’re betting on.
The official NFL website is a great place to find key offensive stats like total yards, passing, and rushing. Notable defensive stats include yards allowed, sacks, and turnovers.
2. Check the NFL Point Spread Stats for Both Teams
Thanks to the popularity of NFL point spread betting, there are tons of spread-specific stats available. You can find historical stats for every team in the NFL and consider their status as both favorites and underdogs.
EV Analytics has data for each team’s ATS record and cover percentage. Before betting on NFL lines, check the historical data and evaluate each matchup individually.
3. Account for the Latest Trends
Sometimes, historical data isn’t enough. Once you’ve assessed the bigger picture, we recommend examining the latest trends. Teams frequently dip in and out of form, so you must be aware of the current situation.
Just because a team has recently dominated a matchup doesn’t mean the same outcome will occur next time. If you stay on top of the latest trends, you could get the better of the bookies in the football spread betting markets.
4. Follow the Latest Team News
Injuries and suspensions can have a big say in the outcome of games, how NFL spreads move, and even in NFL futures. The absence of star players can negatively impact their team, so make sure to check the latest NFL injury report before betting.
As mentioned before, bookmakers usually consider injuries and suspensions when setting their odds. Still, keeping up to date with the latest team news will only enhance your chances of winning money.
5. Account for Potential Stat Padders
Certain players, especially quarterbacks, use “stat padding” to improve their statistics for non-winning purposes. This involves players boosting individual metrics, despite their actions having little benefit to their team’s chances of success.
Stat padders can influence spread betting, so we suggest looking out for these players and accounting for their potential stat-padding patterns. For example, if the favorite’s QB is known for boosting his stats in winning games, you might want to bet on the favorite to cover the spread.
NFL Point Spread Betting Takeaways
It’s easy to understand why NFL point spread betting is one of the most popular options among football bettors. We’ve covered our top NFL spread betting tips for beginners to know to be able to enjoy this type of bet and wager with confidence this football season. Our top points include:
- How the point spread balances uneven football matchups by giving the favorite a virtual deficit and the underdog a head start.
- Why half-point versus full-point NFL spreads matter, to avoid pushes and win more bets.
- Factors that shape creating the spread in the NFL like team stats, recent form, injuries, home field, and public betting behavior.
Now, you’re ready to give it a go yourself. So, why not head to one of our top-ranked NFL betting sites and get started?
FAQs
To cover the spread in the NFL means that a betting favorite has won by the number of points assigned to them in a specific game by bookmakers. If the Arizona Cardinals are -6.5 favorites over the New Orleans Saints and they win by 7 or more points, they have covered the spread.
Betting against the spread (ATS) in the NFL means betting on the underdog to win “against the spread”. If the Titans are 8.5-point underdogs versus the Broncos and you bet on them, you are betting against the spread that the Titans won’t lose by more than 8 points. NFL spread records are also discussed in general terms as well. Such as the Buffalo Bills being “9-3 ATS” overall in a season.
Football spreads can be listed with a half point to avoid the outcome landing on the specific number and causing a push. For example, if the Chiefs are -2.5 favorites over the Chargers, the outcomes are either the Chiefs winning by 3 or more points, or the Chargers losing by 2 or fewer points., since are no half points awarded in NFL games.
Betting on NFL spreads and moneylines come down to personal preference. Betting on moneylines is easer for new bettors as you’re only prediction who will win the game. However, betting on popular teams and favorites offers a small return on investment. Therefore, betting on the spread can be a way to get a more favorable payout.
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