Soccer Over Under Betting Strategy: Pro Tips

Check Goal Stats

The easiest way to start betting on the over under in soccer is to look at the scoring stats for both teams in a game. Look for the average number of goals scored and conceded by both teams.

If you can find two teams who usually score goals but also concede, you may have found a solid pick for an Over bet. Conversely, two lower-scoring teams who also play strong defense, may be worth considering for an Under bet.

Naturally, it’s not that easy because the bookmakers adjust their odds based on such stats. That doesn’t mean you should ignore the data, though, as it provides an excellent overview of the big picture.

Analyze Head-to-Head History

Your totals strategy for any sport should include an analysis of the H2H history, and soccer is no exception. While every season is different and players and coaches come and go, some games often seem to play out in a similar fashion between certain teams.

Matchups between perennial title-contending teams can often be tight, as neither side wants to give up anything in a title race. Regional rivalries can be fierce, and either be hard-fought and low-scoring, or free-flowing and electric with lots of goals.

Check the Team News for Key Absentees

No matter how a team “normally” plays, styles can change quickly if key players are missing. A strong defensive team could suddenly find themselves more open at the back if both centre-backs are out injured.

The same can be true on the offensive side of the ball. If a key playmaker is suspended, or the star striker is injured, a typically high-scoring team may adopt a more conservative defensive approach.

Look at the xG and xGA Numbers

Expected goals (xG) and Expected Goals Against (xGA) are advanced soccer analytical stats. These stats factor in the mathematical probability of a shot being scored or conceded. The models assign a value to each shot based on factors like location and type to determine the expected goal probability.

Sometimes you’ll see a team has scored 10 actual goals, but their xG is only 5.0. This could be a clue that they’ve gotten lucky with some of their scoring chances and they could be due for a regression.

The same logic applies to teams conceding high xGA numbers but not that many goals. They are likely to get near the mean, eventually.

A great site for tracking the xG/xGA in the EPL and other leagues is FBref.

Consider Motivation and Context

Soccer betting on total goals bets can be heavily impacted based on the situation that each time finds itself in and how much each team is motivated. With multiple tournaments in-play all throughout the season, it’s common that teams may rest key players ahead of upcoming Champions League or Europa League matches.

Top-level teams competing in multiple events, like Liverpool or Real Madrid, may elect to rest players in smaller competitions like the EFL Cup or Copa del Rey, if they have a bigger match coming up.

Furthermore, one or more teams might be content with a draw in certain cases, leading to a more conservative approach. In other sports, teams could be in must-win games and approach them very aggressively from the start (for example, when the manager’s job is on the line).

The context surrounding the game could be a much more important factor than sheer numbers.

Analyze Stylistic Matchups

Styles and game-plans can effect your over under strategy in soccer. For example, two counter-attacking teams might nullify each other, while two teams playing with a high press could lead to more chances than expected.

In games with big mismatches, it may look obvious that the favorite will win. But if the underdog sits back and “parks the bus”, they might prove hard to break down, leading to dull victories like 1-0 or 2-0.

Remember That Scores Are Graded Before Extra-Time

Soccer bets are graded after 90 minutes of play and added injury time. Any matches that go to extra-time and/or penalty kicks and end 2-1 but were 1-1 before extra-time or PKs are graded as a 1-1 score and 2 (Total) goals, not the 3 that would be in a 2-1 final.

This is an important tip to remember when learning how to bet on soccer in case you think a play-off or cup match may provide more time for extra goals. It’s also important to remember when betting on two-legged matches where a team may not push for the winner, knowing they have extra-time coming up. Unfortunately, that extra-time won’t help you in cashing a soccer Over bet.

Research the Weather

Weather is easy to find, but make sure when you Google or use your preferred source, you use the precise stadium location and not just the city. Weather in North London can be a bit different than it is in West London.

Knowing the playing surface is also important when handicapping soccer totals, as the ball tends to move faster and skip more on synthetic surfaces as compared to natural grass.

When grass gets wet and bogged down, the ball travels slower and goals are harder to come by.

A team like Bodo/Glimt who has been reaching European competitions in recent years, provides a unique situation in winter months—playing near the Arctic Circle and on a turf surface. They often have a strong home-field advantage, with visitors struggling to adapt.