MLB MVP Betting Preview: AL & NL MLB MVP Odds 2026 & Best Bets

2026 AL MVP Odds

Judge (+200) opens as the 2026 AL MVP favorite at top MLB betting sites as he looks to complete an incredible three‑peat. He’s coming off a heated race with Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (+750) last year, a battle he ultimately won down the stretch.

This year, Judge’s biggest projected challenger is Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (+500). If you look at the Aaron Judge vs Bobby Witt Jr MVP odds comparison at Lucky Rebel, Judge holds a 33.3% implied probability to win MVP, while Witt Jr. sits at 16.7%, keeping him clearly behind the Yankees star.

Raleigh is still very much in the mix, but he trails both Judge and Witt Jr. on the odds board. At +750, he has an 11.8% implied chance to turn last season’s frustration into a 2026 MVP title.

Right behind him is teammate Julio Rodríguez (+900) at 10%, and it wouldn’t be surprising if Rodríguez overtakes Raleigh in the odds at some point this season.

2026 NL MVP Odds

The Shohei Ohtani MVP odds (-130), once again make him the clear favorite for NL MVP honors this season. At -130, he carries a 56.5% implied probability to tie Barry Bonds’ mark of four straight MVP awards, putting him well ahead of the field as Opening Day approaches.

New York Mets slugger Juan Soto (+600) sits a distant second in the MLB MVP odds for 2026. His +600 price translates to just a 14.3% implied probability but still makes him the most credible threat to challenge the Dodgers’ superstar.

Behind the top two, the numbers fall off quickly. Ronald Acuña Jr. (+1100) owns the third-best odds, giving him an 8.3% implied probability and making him more of an outside contender. Just behind him is San Diego’s Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1500), who remains in the conversation but, at a 6.3% implied probability, falls short of true favorite status.

Aaron Judge (+200)

Despite a strong push from Raleigh down the stretch, the 33-year-old right fielder secured the award with 17 first-place votes. The race was tighter than Judge’s 30-vote landslide in 2024, but he remained in control from start to finish.

Raleigh’s power was eye-catching, yet Judge was clearly the more complete player. He finished with a .331 batting average, 53 home runs, and 114 RBIs, along with a stellar .457 on-base percentage and a massive 1.145 OPS.

Although Judge’s power numbers dipped from 58 to 53 home runs and from 144 to 114 RBIs, he still claimed the MVP while Raleigh was crushing the ball and much of the public pushed for the Mariner. Looking ahead to 2026, there’s little reason to expect significant regression from Judge after warming up in the WBC.

AARON JUDGE GOES YARD 🇺🇸 #WorldBaseballClassic pic.twitter.com/rHI5uO5p6m

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 7, 2026

Even if his numbers slip slightly, Judge should remain the favorite among 2026 NL MVP predictions. Witt Jr. is rapidly ascending, but Judge would likely need a steep decline or a major injury for Witt to collect enough first-place votes.

Bobby Witt Jr. (+500)

Witt Jr. is the trendy selection for your 2026 AL MVP picks. He has drawn plenty of attention, and many pundits are projecting a career year for the Royals’ shortstop.

Entering his fifth Major League season, the 25-year-old is coming off a solid campaign, though his numbers did dip. In 2024, Witt Jr. slashed .332 with 32 home runs and 109 RBIs. He followed that up with a .295 average, 23 home runs, and 88 RBIs.

I expect Witt Jr. to bounce back and post numbers closer to his 2024 production. He swiped a career-high 49 bases in 2023, and if he’s going to seriously challenge Judge for MVP honors, he’ll likely need to approach that stolen-base total again while also matching his peak results at the plate.

Yes, Bobby Witt Jr. is still really fast. 😮‍💨 pic.twitter.com/NRvyEGnzno

— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) February 20, 2026

Witt Jr.’s defense is well-respected, and he was awarded a Platinum Glove last season. I am very confident that his glove at shortstop will be in hot form again this season. Now, if the offensive numbers can catch up, then he should at least be in the mix.

However, Witt Jr.’s performance in the batter’s box is less assured than Judge, so he should be playing from behind this summer.

Cal Raleigh (+750)

The breakout star of the Mariners is back, hoping to turn his 13 first-place votes into an AL MVP title in 2026. Raleigh went step for step with Judge down to the wire in last year’s race, but the question is whether he can do it all over again.

The 29-year-old catcher powered the Mariners to the postseason with his bat. He led the Majors with 60 home runs and shattered records along the way, breaking the MLB single-season mark for homers by a catcher. On top of that, Raleigh finished with 125 RBIs, outproducing Judge in that category.

CAL RALEIGH BECOMES THE FOURTH AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYER TO HIT 60 HOME RUNS IN A SEASON! pic.twitter.com/klRa2xyMke

— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) September 25, 2025

Still, his underlying numbers held him back. A .359 OBP and .948 OPS weren’t quite enough to carry his MVP case over Judge’s. If Raleigh is going to win the award in 2026, he’ll likely need to be even better than he was a year ago.

That’s where skepticism comes in. Matching that kind of power output is hard enough, and asking for improvement on top of it is a big stretch. Raleigh should remain a strong contributor, but some regression feels more likely than another leap.

Because of that, I don’t expect him to be a major factor in the AL MVP race, and I don’t see much value in backing him at +750 for your 2026 MLB MVP picks.

Shohei Ohtani (-130)

Fresh off a third straight MVP award and back-to-back World Series titles, Ohtani is looking to add more hardware to his growing trophy case. If he stays healthy, this might be the most complete version of Ohtani we’ve seen.

Although he hasn’t consistently remained in the Dodgers’ rotation, there is real optimism that this will be the year he finally delivers as a true two-way star on both the mound and in the batter’s box.

He didn’t pitch during the 2024 regular season, but last year he made 14 starts as the Dodgers eased him back into the rotation in the summer. He finished with a 2.87 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 47 innings.

Shohei is unstoppable. 😳 pic.twitter.com/fyEgriDcVz

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) March 7, 2026

Combine a full workload on the mound with his inevitable elite production at the plate, and Ohtani becomes the clear frontrunner for NL MVP. He is coming off a career-high 55 home runs, 102 RBIs, and a .282 average. Even a slight regression, paired with a full season on the mound, likely results in a fourth consecutive MVP.

At 31, there’s no indication Ohtani is ready to decline. He appears poised for another standout campaign. At -130, the Shohei Ohtani MVP odds and at -130 may still be undervaluing his true impact.

Juan Soto (+600)

Ohtani doesn’t have much competition, but Soto could still work his way into the race if things break his way. It won’t be easy, yet over a long season from March to September, plenty can change.

In his first year with the Mets in 2025, Soto recorded a career-high 43 home runs, along with a .263 batting average and 105 RBIs. After a slow first month, he caught fire and showed why the Mets committed to the former Yankee with a 15-year, $765 million contract.

An APPLE JACK for Juan Soto 🍎

His 42nd home run of the year sets a new career high 😤 pic.twitter.com/HzMEZ1xaJ4

— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2025

However, even with those offensive numbers, he’d need to become an elite outfielder to truly challenge Ohtani. Soto has a cannon arm, but he’s never been viewed as a Gold Glove-caliber defender, and without that added defensive value, it’s hard to justify backing him over Ohtani.

So even if Soto taps into more power, reaches 50+ home runs, and pushes his average closer to .300, he still feels a few steps short of genuine MVP status. Given that, I’d rather target a longer shot than Soto at +600 in the 2026 NL MVP odds.

1. 2026 AL MVP Sleepers

• • Roman Anthony (+1700)
  • Junior Caminero (+2000)

I don’t see much value in betting on veterans who have already reached their ceiling. The likelihood that they can overtake Judge is low, so my AL MVP betting strategy centers on high-upside young stars: Roman Anthony and Junior Caminero.

Anthony enters his second Major League season surrounded by hype in Boston. The Red Sox right fielder is widely projected to blossom into an elite player in 2026, and I fully expect him to match those lofty expectations.

As a rookie, Anthony posted a .292 batting average with eight home runs and 32 RBIs in 71 games. At just 21 years old, his numbers should climb quickly, and I see him developing into a plus defender in the outfield as well.

Roman Anthony DESTROYS a home run off of Paul Skenes 😮 pic.twitter.com/WkyKHlngCJ

— MLB (@MLB) August 30, 2025

Similarly, I expect Tampa Bay Rays slugger Junior Caminero to thrive this season. Heading into his third year, he’s in a great position to smash his career highs after a breakout sophomore campaign in which he hit .264 with 45 home runs and 110 RBIs in his early 20s.

At +1700 on Anthony and +2000 on Caminero, the combination of upside and price makes both of them very appealing in the 2026 AL MVP bets.

2. 2026 NL MVP Sleepers

• • Ronald Acuña Jr. (+1100)

For fantastic value in the NL, Braves right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. stands out at +1100. While he has the third-shortest odds to win the 2026 NL MVP, the price still looks appealing.

The Braves are seeking a bounce-back campaign after a disappointing 2025 season, when they missed the postseason and were never truly competitive in the NL East. I expect Atlanta to deliver a much stronger showing in 2026, and that resurgence is likely to be led by Acuña Jr.

After battling injuries over the last two years, Acuña Jr. is a strong candidate to return to something closer to his historic 2023 form, when he posted a .337 batting average with 41 home runs and 106 RBIs — all career highs. One of the most dynamic outfielders in baseball, he also boasts the defensive tools and arm strength to complement his offensive production.

If Ohtani misses time due to injury or underperforms relative to expectations, Acuña Jr. should be front and center conversation among best MLB MVP sleeper bets.

NL MVP Predictions and Betting Pick

Similar to the National League, I recommend keeping it simple for your 2026 NL MVP predictions for 2026. Barring an injury to Shohei Ohtani, no one can keep pace with him.

Juan Soto should post monster numbers, but that alone probably won’t be enough to give Ohtani a serious challenge. With Ohtani expected to be a full-time two-way player in 2026, the rest of the league is essentially drawing thin in the MVP race.

I don’t project any meaningful drop-off for Ohtani, and with the pitching volume and performance to support his case, he should be clearly in front for MVP. I have Ohtani around -200 to win the award, so at -130, I still see value and consider this a fair price to include on your betting card.