NFL Survivor Picks This Week: Safest and Riskiest Predictions for Week 16

Safest NFL Survivor Pick: Bills to Beat Browns

The Buffalo Bills aim to keep their momentum rolling after a clutch road win over the New England Patriots in Foxborough. They edged out New England in a big second-half comeback, 35-31, to stay alive in the AFC East title race and strengthen their playoff portfolio, improving to 10-4 on the season.

Now the Bills shift their focus to a struggling Cleveland Browns team in Ohio. Buffalo should have firm control of this matchup. I don’t expect a letdown after last week’s big road victory; this trip figures to be far less challenging against the Browns.

Cleveland is coming off a 31-3 beatdown at the hands of the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. The Browns fell to 3-11 after a brutal outing from rookie QB Shedeur Sanders. The quarterback situation in Cleveland is especially dire, and Sanders remains very much an experiment under center.

The rookie threw for 177 yards with three interceptions and no touchdowns against Chicago. The Bears’ defense had him confused from the start, and he was never able to recover alongside a banged-up offensive line. While the Bills’ secondary has some vulnerabilities, Sanders is unlikely to capitalize on them. He enters this matchup with five touchdowns, six interceptions, and roughly 50% completion.

The Browns’ defense has been a major bright spot this season. Their secondary ranks first in the NFL against the pass, but the Bills don’t need to get too exotic offensively to win. Cleveland’s anemic offense is likely to make enough mistakes to give Josh Allen favorable field position. Allen has been on fire, with six passing touchdowns and one rushing score over the last two weeks.

"We don't blink." – Josh Allen loves the resiliency of his squad | @EvanWashburn pic.twitter.com/YnaP8o9yct

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 14, 2025

These two teams haven’t faced each other since 2022, so head-to-head trends don’t offer much value. However, the Browns are 3-7 against the spread (ATS) in non-division games and 4-7 ATS as an underdog. I have little confidence in Cleveland after last week’s embarrassing loss to Chicago.

I recommend backing the Bills as one of your top NFL survivor pool picks this week.

Moderately Safe NFL Survivor Pick: Falcons to Beat Cardinals

The Atlanta Falcons have been eliminated from the playoffs, but they played like a team with something to prove last week. Down 28-14 to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium, the Falcons mounted a late second-half comeback for a 29-28 win.

Falcons’ QB Kirk Cousins was clearly motivated, and as far as his future is concerned, he still has something to play for the rest of the season. Cousins was demoted to the backup role in favor of Michael Penix Jr. in 2025-26, but returned to the starting lineup last month after Penix suffered a knee injury.

Just when the world was ready to give up on Kirk Cousins pic.twitter.com/CRpJ8SvrWU

— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) December 12, 2025

Cousins wants to show he can still be a starting quarterback, and he made a strong case against the Buccaneers. He passed for 373 yards and three touchdowns on 68.2% completions in a stellar performance. That came against a thin Buccaneers defense, and he’ll have another chance to put together a standout game versus a shaky Cardinals team.

The Cardinals have allowed 351.1 yards per game, while the Buccaneers are right behind them at 348.2 yards allowed. Both rank in the bottom quarter of the NFL, so expect Cousins and the Falcons to move the ball consistently. RB Bijan Robinson is also in good form and should carve up a big chunk of yardage against Arizona.

Robinson has rushed for 1,714 yards and six touchdowns at five yards per carry. He’s also been a difference-maker in the passing game, catching 64 passes for 684 yards and two touchdowns. This looks like another strong spot for Robinson to keep rolling.

The 3-11 Cardinals are doing what they can without a strong offensive core. Their biggest playmaker is TE Trey McBride. If the Falcons can contain him, Arizona’s offense is likely to stall. Atlanta’s secondary has been in good form, allowing just 195.6 passing yards per game. Expect Jacoby Brissett to have a tough outing at home.

The Falcons are a better team than their record suggests, while the Cardinals appear locked in a race to the bottom for the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Arizona is 1-6 ATS at home and hasn’t been very competitive anywhere. In short, consider the Falcons one of your best NFL survivor picks this week.

High Risk/High Reward NFL Survivor Pick: Commanders to Beat Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles got back on track with a 31-0 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 15. They snapped a three-game losing streak by taking out their frustrations on a struggling Raiders squad after a tough 22-19 overtime loss to the Chargers on Monday Night Football.

On the road against the Commanders this Saturday night, I expect more resistance. Washington has had a rough season after reaching the NFC Championship Game last year. The Commanders are coming off a 29-21 win over the Giants but remain out of the playoff picture at 4-10.

In relief of Jayden Daniels, Commanders’ QB Marcus Mariota had a solid outing, while RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt ran for 96 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. The rookie running back has given the backfield a real boost. He’s rushed for 646 yards and five touchdowns, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

Bill Croskey-Merritt sprints in from 16 yards out!

WASvsNYG on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/OeWJ4KI7jG

— NFL (@NFL) December 14, 2025

Mariota isn’t likely to post huge passing numbers or have a career day, but the Commanders should be able to run the ball. The Eagles’ run defense has been anemic this season. They lost key defenders in the offseason, and it has shown. Philadelphia has allowed 125.9 rushing yards per game, ranking 22nd in the league through Week 15.

The Eagles have also been mediocre away from Lincoln Financial Field. They are just 4-3 outright and 3-3-0 ATS as road favorites. This isn’t the same team that blew out Washington to capture the NFC Championship a season ago.

Washington can win this game if it controls the clock and dominates time of possession. The defense is underwhelming, so the Commanders will need to lean on the ground game and turn this into a field-position battle.

They have nothing to lose and should show up against a divisional rival who needs this win much more. It won’t be easy, but as a high-upside play, Washington is worth a look for your Week 16 NFL survivor picks.