Spanish La Liga Predictions This Weekend: Primera Best Bets for Gameweek 11

It’s a Basque derby between these two sides that are separated by just over an hour’s drive in northern Spain.

Betting on road teams in this derby has rarely proven profitable with an away team winning just once in the last ten meetings and none in the past nine. Last season Athletic won 1-0 in Bilbao and they split the points in San Sebastian in a 0-0 draw.

Both have been involved in lower-scoring games this season with Athletic’s averaging just 1.9 goals-per-game, the second-fewest in La Liga, and Sociedad’s averaging 2.4. Much of this can be attributed to misfiring offenses that have scored nine and ten goals respectively.

Creating chances hasn’t necessarily been the problem as both have underperformed their xGs of 13.6 (Sociedad) and 12.4 (Athletic). They’re also both inside the top-ten for shots and shots on target.

Sociedad has conceded 14 goals in ten games, however, they’ve only given up more than a single goal once in their last six games. La Real are now undefeated in three, winning last weekend against Sevilla and then again over SD Negreira in the Copa del Rey.

Meanwhile, Athletic owns the league’s top xGA (8.3) and both sides rank top-seven in shots on target against. Athletic lost 1-0 last weekend but have only lost once in four overall matches and will be the fresher side with no cup match this week.

Couple some struggling offenses with decent defensive numbers and this derby should be tight once again, so I’m happy to take the draw at these odds for this weekend’s La Liga picks.

Based on what we’ve seen this season, this should be an easy Madrid win. But Los Che have not always been an convenient opponent for Los Blancos. Valencia won away in Madrid 2-1 last year, and lost only 2-1 at home. They drew 2-2 the match prior. In the last five, it’s an even 2-1-2 for both.

It’s hard to make a case for Valencia this year, though. They’re 18th, and were winless in five matches until beating Maracena 5-0 in the Copa del Rey. The victory didn’t come without a cost, as joint-leading scorer Hugo Duro suffered a knock. While the win will boost spirits around Valencia, a victory over an amateur side isn’t much to get excited about.

Last week Valencia lost 2-0 in a derby versus Villarreal and the game prior they drew Alaves 0-0, so this is a team badly struggling to score.

On the contrary, Madrid are now five points clear at the top after beating Barcelona 2-1 last week. They have only one loss in 13 games and Kylian Mbappe scored last week giving him goals in 12 of his last 13 games across all competitions.

Vinicius Jr. was the main talking point coming out of El Clasico, after his explosion for being subbed off early. While talk existed around internal discipline, reports are the club is satisfied with his apology and he should be available for selection.

Given the poor form of Valencia, and Madrid’s and Mbappe’s near-perfect form, I’ll back Madrid and Mbappe to come out on top on Saturday.

Only Barcelona and Sevilla games have seen more average goals-per-game than the 3.2 of Levante’s. They’ve scored 14 and allowed 18 goals, and are 6-4 to Over 2.5 totals. Of their goals scored, ten of 14 have come from two players, Etta Eyong (6) and Ivan Romero (4).

It’s been a similar situation outside of La Liga. In their latest match in the Copa del Rey this week, Levante played Oriheula and claimed a wild 4-3 win.

On the other hand, Celta’s games average fewer at 2.4 and Borja Iglesias leads the team with four goals, however, he’s not scored in four games with the club.

Between the teams, there are a combined three La Liga wins, so neither has done great since the start of the season. Celta often draws, leading La Liga with seven, but have now won three straight across all competitions after beating Puerto de Vegas 2-0 on Thursday.

Celta is 2-2-0 in the last four head-to-heads with Levante, winning 2-0 last year to go with a 1-1 draw. There’s also been two or more goals between them in nine straight and 11/12. Considering bets on both teams scoring had cashed in 12 straight Celta Vigo matches prior to their Copa del Rey match this week, it’s a solid trend to continue betting in this weekend’s La Liga predictions.

After some strong performances in recent seasons Mallorca are languishing this year down in 16th at 2-3-5. Still, on Wednesday they played Atletico Sant Just in the Copa del Rey and won 2-0.

As for Real Betis, they played on Monday versus Atletico Madrid and despite having all of the possession and control, they never really worried Atleti and couldn’t break through in the final third, going on to lose 2-0.

Despite not finding the net and drawing 0-0 in the Europa League the prior match, Betis had found the scoresheet in each of their previous 11 matches. The long-term trends suggest they should start firing again soon.

This matchup with Mallorca is generally lower-scoring. The Under 2.5 is 4-1. Last year both won on the road, Mallorca 2-1 and Betis 1-0, but Betis has gone 9-2-1 in the past 12.

I expect a Betis win in Seville, but they have played twice during the week and their cup match came one day later than Mallorca’s. Betis have also conceded two goals in each of their past two league games.

For as poor as Mallorca has been, they’ve still scored in five straight overall games, as well as in nine of 11, and have actually scored more road goals (7) than home goals (4) this season. Therefore, the safer bet comes in better on goals coming from both teams.