UFC 328 Odds and Predictions – Can Chimaev Hold Off Strickland?

• Khamzat Chimaev (-575)
• Sean Strickland (+420)

Chimaev (15-0) finally won the 185-pound belt in August 2025, beating Dricus du Plessis by sticking to the script. “Borz” hit 12 of 17 takedown attempts and pummeled “DDP” on the ground. Chimaev can strike, but his striking is used to set up takedowns. When Chimaev got in trouble against Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, it was because he tried to strike with them, and that’s not his game. Due to various health issues, Chimaev can also tire easily, although his endurance looked better against du Plessis.

That could be trouble against Strickland (30-7), who has a gas tank that won’t quit. He won the middleweight title from Israel Adesanya in September 2023, then lost in a controversial split decision against du Plessis in January 2024. The rematch in February 2025 was a more decisive loss for Strickland, although it was sandwiched by wins over Paulo Costa and Anthony Hernandez. Strickland is a pure striker with excellent takedown defense, which will be tested early and often by Chimaev.

Chimaev is a beast, no doubt. But I think these UFC 328 betting odds are far too high towards the champ. Strickland has shown he is one of the toughest men in the UFC. If Chimaev can’t take him to the mat and keep him there, Strickland could have the upper hand. The longer this fight goes, the better it is for Strickland. The two have also sparred together, so there is the wrinkle of past knowledge.

That said, I think Chimaev will eventually get Strickland to the mat and inflict damage, but it’ll take a while. I won’t bet his moneyline UFC 328 odds of -575 for the lack of return, but looking at the props, the action on Total Rounds looks enticing. Give me Over 3.5 Rounds at +120.

• Tatsuro Taira (-174)
• Joshua Van (+147)

Van (16-2) won the flyweight title in December 2025 as Alexandre Pantoja suffered an arm injury 26 seconds into the fight, which may be a reason the UFC 328 betting odds have him as the underdog. But he was very impressive in a title eliminator against Brandon Royval, which Van took on short notice. “The Fearless” lives up to his name as he throws strikes at a historic rate, to the tune of 8.84 per minute.

Taira (18-1) is much more methodical, and is more apt to try and take the fight to the mat, where he has eight submission wins to two for Van. The Japanese native is a smart striker who will want to slow the pace down, and attempt takedowns until he sees an opening for a submission. That said, he does have some knockout power.

I’m leaning towards the champion as the UFC 328 betting underdog at +146 in this spot. Van will want to prove that his win over Pantoja wasn’t just due to the injury suffered, and I think his pace will be too much for Taira. At plus odds, this is a terrific number at which to get Van.

• Alexander Volkov (-182)
• Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+152)

Volkov (39-11) and Cortes-Acosta (17-2) find themselves just on the cusp of a title shot. The winner of this match could face the winner of the rematch between champion Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane, whenever that happens. Volkov is coming off back-to-back split decisions. One was a controversial loss to Gane in October 2024, when most thought he had won the bout, including UFC president Dana White. The other was a win over Jailton Almeida in October 2025. “Drago” is a boxer who aims to pick his opponent apart, although he infuses body kicks in there as well. If he gets in trouble, Volkov can also wrestle, although he doesn’t do it much.

Cortes-Acosta is coming off a second-round TKO of Derrick Lewis in January 2026, and it was his third straight knockout win. The Dominican has a ton of KO power in his hands, but there isn’t much in his arsenal outside of that. He has to find a way to get inside on Volkov, who has an 80-inch reach.

If Cortes-Acosta doesn’t end this fight early, Volkov has the upper hand. He’s a veteran who knows how to stay out of trouble, and I think he’ll win this by decision. His UFC 328 odds of -182 on the moneyline are fine. But I’m going to take the Alternative Method of Victory prop and go with Volkov to win by Decision/Technical Decision, which is a much better return at +125.