King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot – Runner-by-Runner Guide by Ginger Joe

1. Calandagan (5yo g) – F-H Graffard & Mickael Barzalona 6/4 (5 Star)

★★★★★

Calandagan sets an exceptionally high standard here and is fully deserving of his place at the head of the market. He won this race in dominant fashion 12 months ago and returns to a track where he has an outstanding record, having already won three times at Ascot.

Few horses are as effective over this mile-and-a-half trip, and there’s a strong argument that he’s currently the best horse in the world over the distance. His official rating of 130 leaves him well clear of his rivals on paper, highlighting just how much they need to improve to trouble him.

Quite simply, if Calandagan turns up anywhere near his best, he wins this race. The only realistic way the opposition get involved is if he underperforms, and looking at his record at Ascot, there’s very little reason to expect that to happen. Everything points towards another huge run, and if all goes to plan, he looks every bit the banker of the day. This is a superstar, and he is a great price here.

2. Benvenuto Cellini (3yo c) – Aiden O’Brien & Ryan Moore 5/1 (4 Star)

★★★★

Benvenuto Cellini is the current second favorite in the market, and he looks a really powerful, imposing colt with plenty of potential. He had a nightmare in the Derby after getting caught in the stalls, despite being sent off favorite. However, he quickly put that disappointment behind him by landing the Irish Derby at the Curragh, where he beat Epsom Derby winner Christmas Day in impressive fashion.

That performance confirmed the promise he had shown earlier in the season and suggested there’s still plenty more to come from this progressive three-year-old. He also receives the weight allowance, which is often crucial at this stage of the season as younger horses continue to strengthen and mature.

However, Benvenuto Cellini already looks a physically imposing type, so he may not be as reliant on that allowance as some of his contemporaries. He has plenty of upside and is clearly heading in the right direction. But even with the weight concession, he’ll likely need to find another level to get the better of the favorite.

That said, if he runs to the level we’ve seen recently, he looks to have an excellent chance of finishing in the places, and if he improves, he could get seriously involved. The choice of Ryan Moore as jockey is a big boost to his credentials, also.

3. Masquerade Ball (4yo g) – Takahisa Tezuka & Christophe Lemaire 4/1 (4 Star)

★★★★

Masquerade Ball is perhaps the most interesting challenger to the favorite, particularly given how bullish his trainer has been in the build up to this race. Connections have made no secret of the fact that they believe there’s still plenty more to come from this colt, and if that’s the case, he could be the one with the best chance of asking Calandagan a question.

His form already reads extremely well, having been beaten just a head by Calandagan in the Japan Cup. On official ratings, he sits only 2lb behind the favorite, making him the closest rival on paper.

It will also be fascinating to see how the race is ridden. In Japan, Masquerade Ball tracked Calandagan before producing a strong challenge, briefly getting his nose in front, only to be headed again in the final strides.

It was a tremendous effort and showed he has the class to mix it with the best over this trip. The slight difference this time is that he meets Calandagan at level weights, having received 3lb when they last met, so he’ll need to improve again to reverse the form.

Even so, he’s a colt with plenty of upside, and if he can reproduce that Japan Cup performance on his first start in the UK, he has every chance of making this a much closer contest than the market suggests.

4. Goliath (6yo g) – F-H Graffard & Christophe Soumillon 9/1 (3 Star)

★★★

One of three course and distance winners in the field, and he has been a superb servant to connections. He won this race in 2024 and has also picked up wins in multiple countries across the world.

His best days are probably just about behind him, but he is still running to a high level of form, and it would only take one or two disappointing rivals in the race to see him come to the front. His trainer Francois Graffard is, in my opinion, one of the best flat trainers in the world.

Even though the stablemate Calandagan is the one to beat, it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see Goliath heavily involved in the finish here. Each-way chance for sure.

5. Kalpana (5yo m) – Andrew Balding & Colin Keane 8/1 (3 Star)

★★★

Last year’s runner-up, Kalpana, only has a length to find with Calandagan based on that piece of form, and she’s looked in excellent shape in both of her starts this season. In this race 12 months ago, she made a bold move for home early, opening up a two-length advantage with two furlongs to run, before only being reeled in by Calandagan inside the final furlong.

She was rated 117 that day, but has since reached a peak mark of 122, suggesting there’s an even bigger performance in her locker. She lines up here rated 120, and with two runs under her belt this season, there’s every chance she’s now ready to produce her best effort of the year.

Whether that will be enough to reverse the form with Calandagan remains to be seen, but there’s no doubting Kalpana’s ability. She’s a very talented mare who should run right up to her mark, and if she does, I think she has a very solid each way chance. Furthermore, she would likely need the favorite to underperform though for her winning chances to be enhanced.

6. Minnie Hauk (4yo f) – Aidan O’Brien & Wayne Lordon 8/1 (3 Star)

★★★

Minnie Hauk stayed on well to finish four lengths behind Ombudsman in the Prince of Wales’ Stakes last month, and I don’t think that shorter trip played to her strengths. There’s every chance you can upgrade that performance slightly, as this step back up in distance looks much more suitable.

She’s a multiple winner over this trip and also produced an excellent effort when finishing second to Daryz in last season’s Arc, so her form credentials are rock solid. She looks a very reliable option to run another big race, and her usual hold-up tactics should see her finishing strongly in the closing stages, giving her solid place claims.

That said, she’ll still need to find a bit more if the favorite turns up at his best, and at the current prices, I’d just favor Kalpana over the two mares.

7. Lambourn (4yo g) – Aidan O’Brien & William Buick 100/1 (2 Star)

★★

The 2025 Derby winner is a welcomed addition to the line-up in this year’s King George, but his form has taken a step backwards this season, and he has a fair bit to find with a few of his rivals here on previous encounters.

The trip is fine for him, the ground is fine for him too, but he will need to find improvement out of nowhere if he is to get seriously involved here.

8. Wurttemberg (6yo g) – Hiroshi Miyamoto & Oisin Murphy 66/1 (1 Star)

★

Wurttemberg has shown enough ability to suggest he belongs at this level, but on official ratings, he has a mountain to climb if he’s to trouble the favorite. He’s still a progressive type, but even allowing for further improvement, he remains some way behind the principals on the figures.

He’ll need to produce a career-best performance by a considerable margin to get involved, and realistically, he’ll also need Calandagan to underperform. While he’s a likeable horse with potential for the future, this looks a very stiff assignment on paper.

If he were to come out on top it would be one of the bigger surprises of the day, and it’s difficult to make a strong case for him winning against a rival of Calandagan’s caliber, and that’s without mentioning the others way ahead of him, too.

9. Action (3yo c) – Aidan O’Brien & Sean Levey 150/1 (1 Star)

★

A colt who hasn’t won since his maiden last year, and his form this season hasn’t improved. His best effort was when second to Item in the Dante Stakes at York, but that was Group 2 company, and he has a lot more on his plate here.

He has been found out easily in Group 1 company, so it’s hard to make a case for him here, even with the three-year-old allowance.