The Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina odds for the 2026 US women’s final are here. Sabalenka is the favorite to win her third straight US Open, but Rybakina got the better of her at the Australian Open earlier this year. Can Sabalenka get her revenge?
I’ll examine the Sabalenka vs. Rybakina odds for Saturday’s match, and give you my predictions and best bets for the final Grand Slam of 2026!
Aryna Sabalena vs. Elena Rybakina Betting Odds (Women’s U.S. Open Final)
Check out the 2026 WTA US Open final odds between the top two seeds, Sabalenka and Rybakina.
| Match | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sabalenka to win | -145 |
| Rybakina to win | +120 |
| Over 23.5 Games | -110 |
| Under 23.5 Games | -120 |
These Sabalenka vs. Rybakina odds at the best tennis betting sites favor Sabalenka (-145), giving the world’s #1 player a 59.2% implied probability to win her fifth Grand Slam, and third straight at Flushing Meadows. Rybakina (+120) comes back with an implied probability of 45.4%, and she has shown that she’s not afraid to go toe-to-toe with Sabalenka.
The Under for number of games is favored at -120, with the total set at 23.5. But there is a world in which this turns into a marathon championship match!
You’ll find the Sabalenka vs. Rybakina odds at Bovada by going to Sports > Tennis > US Open > Women’s Singles.
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina H2H Stats
This is the 17th meeting between the top two players in the WTA rankings, with Sabalenka holding a 10-7 edge. Sabalenka has won the last two meetings, beating Rybakina in the semifinals in Miami, and the Indian Wells final.
However, Rybakina had won the previous two meetings before that, taking down Sabalenka in the Australian Open final, and in the WTA Finals in Saudi Arabia in November 2025.
Three of the last seven meetings have gone to three sets, with two going to a third-set tiebreaker. There are no secrets between these two, and it’s going to be a battle of attrition on Saturday!
Aryna Sabalenka – Can She Three-Peat at Flushing Meadows?
Sabalenka has rolled through the US Open, dropping only one set, in the quarterfinals against Linda Noskova. She routed Jessica Pegula in the semifinals by a score of 7-5, 6-2, and outside of the Noskova match, the Belarussian has been largely dominant.
Aryna Sabalenka after beating Pegula to reach U.S. Open final
“No complaints. I’m super happy I was able to pull out such tennis. The last match I played against Jessica it was almost impossible for me to get the win. I’m super happy I was able to play such tennis in front of… pic.twitter.com/DcOdRY4M9e
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 11, 2026
Sabalenka is leaning on her strengths at Flushing Meadows. She is efficient in using her power in baseline rallies, and her serve has been terrific. Furthermore, she had seven aces against Pegula, and won 74.4% of her first-serve points.
Perhaps more importantly, Sabalenka has kept her cool when things have gotten tough, particularly in the Noskova match. She battled hard in the third set, winning 7-6 with a 10-7 tiebreaker. Pound-for-pound, Sabalenka has proven herself to be the best player in the world; it seems like the only one can beat her, is her. She also loves Flushing Meadows, winning 20 straight matches there.
Can Sabalenka make it 21 straight and become the first woman since Serena Willams from 2012 through 2014 to three-peat at the US Open?
Elena Rybakina – Will Rybakina Claim Her Second Grand Slam of 2026?
Rybakina beat Sabalenka in Australia as a +135 underdog, and the prices are giving her more of a chance this time. She hasn’t had as easy a time as Sabalenka, needing three sets to beat Zheng Qinwen in the quarterfinals, and another three sets to eliminate Coco Gauff in the semifinals in a match where the crowd was clearly rooting for her American opponent.
Elena Rybakina was asked about the stadium clearing out quickly after her win over Coco Gauff at the US Open
“Taking on a fan favorite… we all know, even the fans know tennis is not a picnic. It’s all about winning or losing. Anything can happen. But to be honest I’ve never… pic.twitter.com/5HZwTWYIB4
— The Tennis Letter (@TheTennisLetter) September 11, 2026
It just goes to show how mentally tough the Russian-born Kazakhstani player is. After winning the Australian Open, Rybakina fell out in the second round at the French Open, and the third round at Wimbledon. She then lost to Iga Swiatek in the final in Cincinnati, and had to retire against the Polish star in Toronto due to a heel injury.
But Rybakina is moving well at Flushing Meadows, and she can match Sabalenka’s power. She had held serve 92% of the time going into her match against Gauff, and Rybakina won 76.2% of her first-serve points against the American.
Rybakina is a formidable foe for Sabalenka. Will she be able to give her a run for her money on Saturday?
Aryna Sabalena vs. Elena Rybakina Prediction and Betting Pick
Sabalenka was my WTA women’s US Open prediction at the beginning of the tournament at +350, which I thought was a phenomenal price. I won’t back away from that now after watching her all tournament, so I’ll take the world’s #1 at -145 in my Sabalenka vs. Rybakina US Open betting predictions!
I think it’ll be a longer match, with at least one set going to a tiebreaker, so I’ll also grab the Over 23.5 games at -110 to squeeze as much value out as I can. Sabalenka is just so dominant at Flushing Meadows, I feel confident in making her my pick in what could be a classic match!
If you’re looking for a prop to take, I would consider 15+ aces in the match at -120. Both women are serving at an incredible rate, and 7-8 aces per player is extremely doable.
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