NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 22: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Donovan Mitchell +600 (Cavaliers vs. 76ers)

Donovan Mitchell is one of our best first basket prop bets tonight at +600 odds against the Philadelphia 76ers. Cleveland’s strong opening-tip potential gives the Cavaliers a path to the first possession, with Jarrett Allen providing size and athleticism at center court. If Allen wins the tip, Mitchell can immediately attack the defense and put Cleveland on the board.

He averaged 27.9 points and 5.7 assists per game during the 2025-26 regular season, shooting 48.3% from the field and 36.4% from three-point range. He was Cleveland’s leading scorer, establishing himself as the team’s go-to offensive weapon.

His explosive first step, ability to create separation, and confidence pulling up from midrange or beyond the arc make him a dangerous first-shot candidate. Rather than waiting for the offense to develop, he can create his own scoring opportunity from the opening play.

Donovan Mitchell ends the first quarter with a DEEP three-pointer to beat the buzzer!

(via @NBA)pic.twitter.com/oqD0UTLs4H

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) April 30, 2026

With Allen potentially securing possession and Mitchell leading Cleveland’s attack, +600 offers excellent value for one of the best NBA first scorer bets. We’re backing the Cavaliers’ star guard to strike first against Philadelphia.

Jamal Murray +550 (Nuggets vs. Thunder)

Jamal Murray is one of our best NBA first basket picks tonight at +550 odds against the Oklahoma City Thunder. Murray finished tied for the NBA lead with 20 first baskets in 2025-26, converting 20% of his starts into the game’s opening score.

He averaged 25.4 points, 7.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds per game last season, shooting 48.3% from the field and an impressive 43.5% from three-point range. His ability to create his own shot, attack off the dribble, and knock down jumpers makes him a dangerous option from Denver’s opening possession.

Jamal Murray has a knack for buzzer-beating 3-pointers 🏹 #NBAHighlights #AmericanExpressNBATipOff2026 pic.twitter.com/zsxBys2Ajl

— NBA Australia (@NBA_AU) October 15, 2026

Nikola Jokic is another key factor in this matchup. His size and strength give Denver a legitimate chance to win the opening tip against Oklahoma City, potentially putting the ball in Murray’s hands immediately. With Jokic facilitating and Murray capable of scoring from all three levels, the Nuggets have a clear path to an early basket.

At +550, we’re backing Murray’s proven first-basket production and elite scoring ability to deliver another fast start.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.