This week on the PGA Tour, the players head to Mexico for the Vidanta World Mexico Open, and this has the potential to be a cracker of an event. We have an interesting course and a competitive field, so picking a winner can be a challenge.
As always, I’m here to share my course analysis and Vidanta World Mexico Open predictions. Here’s a snapshot of my squad for the tournament, and I provide my reasoning later in this betting preview.
2026 Vidanta World Mexico Open Best Bets: Ginger Joe’s Squad
| Contestant | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kris Ventura | +4500 |
| Jordan Smith | +4000 |
| Corey Conners | +2800 |
Vidanta World Mexico Open Course Analysis
The golf course this week looks immaculate, and the setting is fantastic too, close to the Pacific Coast. However, the course doesn’t play like a links track at all.
This is very much a parkland-style layout, where scoring can be very low, as long as the players avoid costly mistakes. It’s a 7,337-yard, par 71 course designed by Greg Norman, and his projects can often be very demanding.
What’s interesting about this course in particular is that it’s long, the fairways are wide, and there isn’t a huge amount of rough around them. However, 14 holes have the potential for water to come into play, so there is plenty of danger out there.
The first thing to get right this week is keeping the ball in play off the tee. As I say, the fairways are wide, but the water is there to punish any loose shots. Driving distance is certainly welcome here, but you’d better hope you can find the fairway first!
From fairway to green, things can get interesting, particularly on the par 4s. Approach play from 125 to 175 yards is going to be key this week. Even though the course is fairly open off the tee, the approach shots become more difficult, not necessarily because of the distance, but because of what’s waiting around the greens.
The fairways are relatively flat and open, but the greens are really undulating and well protected by water and large bunkers. So, a good short game will definitely come in handy.
However, as mentioned, if your player arrives with their approach play switched on, hopefully the scrambling aspect of their game won’t need to come into play too often.
This also opens the event up to a wider pool of potential winners, especially with only one player in the field ranked inside the world’s top 25, and that’s Wyndham Clark, the world number five. He is going to be quite a short price this week, and rightly so. He is a two-time major champion, has been a multiple winner again this season, and has all the attributes needed to suit this course.
The +1000 on Clark is too short for me from a betting perspective though. I think the three-man squad I’ve put together offers much better value, but there is a fourth selection in the latest YouTube episode too.
Ultimately, of course, we want winners, but I’d feel a bit silly backing Wyndham at the price he is, especially if he gets beaten! Those who follow my content will know that I’ve tipped Wyndham for all six of his PGA Tour wins, but the shortest price I’ve ever taken was 33/1.
That tells you everything you need to know about the price I’d want to be backing him at, and at a course where many players can score low here, you may as well search for a bit of nice value.
For those who want to look at some course correlation, I’d be checking out the Corales Puntacana Championship, El Cardonal and the Puerto Rico Open. I’d say similar attributes are required at those venues as they are here.
As for the stats, I’d focus particularly on strokes gained approach from 125 to 175 yards, players who are consistent shot shapers, plenty of driving distance, and then those with a good birdie average. That combination should put you in a good position when narrowing down your selections.
It’s a great course this week, and it should be very enjoyable to watch. I think the winning score will be around 20 under par, so bear that in mind when making your selections. Hopefully, we can land on a winner!
1. Kris Ventura (+4500)
Kris Ventura is an interesting one to keep an eye on this week, as there are plenty of positives to take from his game. One of his biggest strengths is his driving, where he has been one of the better players on the PGA Tour this season.
For the stats, he ranks 6th for strokes gained off the tee and 5th for total driving, while averaging 313.1 yards off the tee, ranking 29th for driving distance. He has the power to give himself plenty of scoring opportunities.
What is also encouraging is that he isn’t just relying on distance. He ranks 20th for greens in regulation and 5th for proximity to the hole, which suggests he is giving himself chances with his approach play.
His long-iron game has also been a strength, ranking 5th for approaches from over 200 yards, with an average proximity of 44 feet. These are some really encouraging numbers and suggest his ball-striking is good enough to compete well above his ranking.
The main question is whether he can make enough of those opportunities count on the greens. His putting numbers have been more mixed this season, ranking 74th for strokes gained putting and 104th for putts per round, and that is probably the biggest thing holding him back from putting together a really strong finish. If he can get the putter going, though, there is plenty to like about his game, especially with how well he has been driving the ball.
Kris Ventura is an interesting fancy this week. His driving gives him a solid platform, and the quality of his ball-striking suggests he is capable of competing well above his ranking. He still needs to put four rounds together, but if the putter cooperates, he could be in the mix on Sunday. He has been eye-catching this season.
2. Jordan Smith (+4000)
Jordan Smith is certainly a volatile player at times, but there is no doubting his talent from tee to green, and he seems to be in good control of his game right now.
The standout stat for Jordan Smith this year is that he ranks first for total driving, whilst hitting an average drive of around 315 yards, and that seems to come effortlessly to him too. Not only is he hitting it a mile, but he is also hitting over 66% of fairways, and that combination of distance and accuracy is a real positive.
From fairway to green, he has been excellent too. He currently ranks 9th for greens in regulation this season, which is deeply impressive for a golfer who has previously struggled to keep his tempo.
The numbers suggest he has been working very hard on his game, and the form is starting to come with it too. He is hitting over 70% of greens in regulation and, importantly, is one of the better scorers on par 4s, sitting inside the top 15.
There isn’t much wrong with his game right now. He is hitting it a long way, he is accurate, his touch around the greens has improved, and his approach play is getting better. So, he ticks loads of boxes. We just need four good rounds with the putter.
That is the one club holding him back and, ultimately, stopping him from winning more tournaments than he has. He is an exceptional talent and comes into this event in good form.
3. Corey Conners (+2800)
Corey Conners is not a player I tend to get too excited about most weeks, but annoyingly, he looks a very good fit for this event with regards to ball flight and shot shape. He comes into it in decent form too, having finished third at the Bermuda Championship last week, and there are enough positives in his game to make him worth considering.
His biggest strength has always been his iron play, and that remains the case. He ranks 37th for strokes gained on approach this season, while sitting 44th for greens in regulation, hitting just under 69% of greens.
Conners is the sort of player who can consistently give himself chances, and when his approach play is on song, he can be a difficult player to keep up with. He has also been particularly effective with his shorter irons, which could be a real advantage this week.
The issue with Conners is that I find it difficult to get fully behind him when it comes to putting four good rounds together. His putting stats have been poor this season, ranking 135th for strokes gained putting, and that is the main concern.
Conners can strike the ball as well as most players in the field, but there are weeks when he simply doesn’t do enough on the greens to turn that into a proper challenge.
That said, he comes into this in form, and this looks like the sort of event where his strengths could really come into play. He has made 20 cuts from 22 PGA Tour starts this season, so the consistency is there, even if the outright wins have been missing. I don’t particularly like backing him most weeks, but he is an annoyingly good fit here, and I think he deserves a place on the shortlist.
For me, though, this is a win-only play. I can see the argument for him being competitive, but with the putter being such a concern, I don’t want to be relying on him each way. If his irons do the damage and he has one of those better weeks on the greens, he has the game to win this. I’ll take the all or nothing approach with him this week.
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