NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 6: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Cameron Boozer +750 (Thunder vs. Grizzlies)

I’m looking at Cameron Boozer for one of the best NBA first basket bets tonight at +750. Zach Edey gives Memphis a significant advantage at the opening tip, as his size and presence in the middle make him a strong option to secure the first possession. That should give the Grizzlies an early opportunity to get their offense going.

Cam Boozer starred in last night's Memphis win!

27 PTS (career-high, 17 in 3Q)
9 REB
26 MIN

The Grizzlies are 6-0 for the first time since the 2014-15 NBA season 🔥
pic.twitter.com/1GMWqHQyRp

— NBA (@NBA) November 1, 2026

Boozer has been outstanding to start his rookie campaign, averaging 17.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. He’s also averaging 13.7 field-goal attempts per game and is already comfortable taking on a significant offensive role in Memphis.

He’s demonstrated his scoring upside with a 27-point performance against Sacramento and is getting plenty of opportunities around the basket. At +750, he’s worth a shot to open the scoring for one of the best NBA first scorer props today.

Deni Avdija +650 (Trail Blazers vs. Lakers)

Deni Avdija offers strong value at +650 to score the first basket against the Los Angeles Lakers. Portland has been outstanding at the opening tip, winning 85.7% of its jump balls this season.

Deni Avdija with a pair of strong takes to the cup 💪

He has 8 of his 12 points in the 2Q! pic.twitter.com/Z3nVQxlwYg

— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2026

Avdija is off to a fantastic start, averaging 23.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game while shooting 47.8% from the field. He’s also scored at least 21 points in seven consecutive games, including a 28-point performance against Denver and 24 points against Utah.

He’s consistently attacking, creating his own shots and getting plenty of opportunities offensively. With Portland likely to control the opening tip, I like Avdija to capitalize on an early scoring opportunity. At +650, he’s a top first basket pick.

Dylan Harper +750 (Spurs vs. Kings)

Dylan Harper is a standout prop at +750 to score the first basket against Sacramento. The San Antonio Spurs have a major advantage at the opening tip, winning 87.5% of their jump balls compared to just 50% for the Kings.

With Victor Wembanyama handling the opening tip, San Antonio has a strong chance of securing the first possession and creating an early scoring opportunity. Harper is also playing some excellent basketball to start the season.

DYLAN HARPER GOT UP FOR THE SLAM 🔥

Mavs-Spurs live on ESPN and the ESPN App 🔒 pic.twitter.com/BsQLVrvCib

— ESPN (@espn) November 5, 2026

He’s averaging 18.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, while shooting 50.0% from the field. He’s getting involved offensively and showing confidence as a starter.

Wembanyama is available at +280, but I prefer Harper at +750 with the significant difference in price. He’s an appealing alternative to lead the Spurs in scoring on their opening possession and is a worthwhile first basket NBA prop bet.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.