The PGA Tour heads to Blaine, Minnesota, this week for the eighth edition of the 3M Open, which takes place at TPC Twin Cities. With the FedExCup Playoffs fast approaching, this is one of the final opportunities for players to pick up valuable points, improve their position in the standings, and secure their place in the final stages.
The biggest storyline this week is the presence of world number 1 Scottie Scheffler, who makes the trip to Minnesota immediately after competing in last week’s Open Championship at Royal Birkdale. With the final major of the season now behind him, the focus shifts back to the PGA Tour, and Scheffler headlines a field featuring a blend of established stars, rising talents and players still fighting to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs.
Defending champion Kurt Kitayama returns looking to successfully defend the title he won last year. His victory marked the second PGA Tour win of his career, and he is probably going to be well supported again this week, however, he’s not in my squad!
Although the 3M Open is still one of the newer events on the PGA Tour calendar, it has quickly carved out its own identity since making its debut in 2019. The tournament has delivered its fair share of memorable moments and breakthrough victories, with champions including Matthew Wolff, Michael Thompson, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau, Lee Hodges, Jhonattan Vegas and Kurt Kitayama.
As the event enters its eighth edition, it continues to grow in stature and provides another important stop as the race towards the FedExCup playoffs reaches its conclusion. Let’s evaluate the course before I share my 3M Open predictions and best bets.
TPC at Twin Cities Course Preview
TPC Twin Cities is a 7,341-yard par 71, and despite its reputation as one of the more scoreable courses on the PGA Tour schedule, it demands plenty of respect. The winning score is typically somewhere between 17 under and 24 under par, so players know they’ll need to make plenty of birdies if they want to contend.
Adam Svensson and Lee Hodges share the course record after both firing sensational rounds of 60, underlining just how low players can go when everything clicks.
What makes TPC Twin Cities so interesting is the balance between opportunity and danger. The fairways are relatively generous, initially welcoming players to take an aggressive approach from the tee.
However, water is in play on 15 of the holes, and even though it isn’t always directly in the line of play, it lurks close enough to punish any loose or overconfident swing. Players who keep the ball in play are rewarded with plenty of scoring opportunities, but one poorly struck drive or iron shot can quickly turn a birdie chance into a dropped shot.
That makes me think you want a consistent ball striker this week. Such player will hit more greens, because good ball striking promotes good distance control. In turn, if you have good distance control, pulled and pushed shots can still stay on the green.
Although driving accuracy is always valuable, this is primarily a second-shot golf course. The best approach players tend to thrive here giving themselves a constant number of birdie opportunities on greens that are relatively flat by PGA Tour standards.
There are subtle undulations and enough movement to reward good putting, but they aren’t overly severe, so expect putts to be made from everywhere this week. If a player is striking their irons well, this is very much a pin seeker’s course where aggressive approach play can be heavily rewarded.
There isn’t a single blueprint of attributes this week, which makes player selection particularly interesting here. You could lean towards accurate drivers who scramble well when they do miss, you could back the solid tee to green players and trust the putter to warm up, or simply side with the best ball strikers in the field. Shot shape isn’t a significant factor around TPC Twin Cities either, so there are multiple ways to attack the course depending on a player’s strengths.
One man who appears perfectly suited to the test is Scottie Scheffler, making his first appearance at TPC Twin Cities. On paper, this feels like an almost ideal fit for Scottie. His tee to green game should create a huge number of birdie opportunities on a course that rewards quality ball striking.
Now, he had an unusually poor week with the putter at Royal Birkdale, but links golf presents a very different challenge to the smooth flatter surfaced greens he’ll face this week. I’d expect an immediate improvement with the flat stick too, which is why he’ll be so difficult to beat. That said, at the prices available, I’m happy to take him on.
I’ve opted for a balanced squad of players with a combination of strong tee to green numbers, reliable approach play and solid ball strikers. This is also an event where you need to find players with enough value to take on Scottie with. I’m going in with the win only prices, but also the place terms too in the hope of finding players that outplay their odds this week and return us with some profit.
1. Jake Knapp (+4000)
World number 46 Jake Knapp is first on my list this week, and his ball striking makes him a hugely appealing option at TPC Twin Cities. I expect the players who consistently gain strokes tee to green to create the most birdie opportunities over the four days, and Knapp’s ability to strike the ball as well as almost anyone in the field gives him every chance of doing exactly that.
When you break down his game, it’s easy to see why this course looks like such a good fit. As already mentioned, his ball striking is a major strength, and the relatively flat bent grass greens should allow him to attack pins with confidence.
On the PGA Tour this season, Knapp ranks 35th in strokes gained approach, 20th in strokes gained total, and an impressive 5th in strokes gained putting. On paper, this feels like an ideal setup for him and a course where he has the potential to post a very low score.
The numbers don’t stop there either. Knapp also ranks 5th in scoring average, an important statistic on a course where birdies are essential, while he sits 2nd in scrambling from the rough, giving him an excellent chance of limiting damage if he does miss the occasional fairway. Those are exactly the sort of attributes you want around a layout that rewards aggression but can punish loose shots.
I’ve always thought Knapp has one of the best-looking swings on the PGA Tour, and while I don’t like relying solely on statistics, everything points towards him being an outstanding course fit this week.
The eye test and the numbers are telling the same story, which only strengthens my confidence that he can contend here. A very naturally talented player, a win on the PGA Tour, five Top 10s this year, what’s not to like?
2. Aldrich Potgieter (+8000)
Aldrich Potgieter is another player who immediately caught my eye this week, and I think TPC Twin Cities ‘could’ be an excellent fit for his game. As I mentioned in the course preview, the fairways are relatively generous, encouraging players to be aggressive off the tee, but with water in play on 15 holes, there’s still a need for discipline.
I actually think that’s a balance Potgieter can manage, but also, to have a powerhouse in the squad this week, can really pay off here. His power is one of the biggest weapons in the field, and if he picks his moments wisely, he can use that length to create a huge advantage without taking unnecessary risks.
His driving distance should leave him with plenty of short irons and wedges into the greens, which is exactly what you want on a course where birdie opportunities are there for the taking too.
TPC Twin Cities rewards players who can attack flags, and Potgieter’s ability to shorten the course means he’ll have more chances than most to take dead aim at the pins. If he keeps the ball in play off the tee, he has the firepower to dismantle this layout.
Since winning his maiden PGA Tour title, there also seems to be a growing confidence about him. He knows he can win at this level now, and that’s often the hardest hurdle for young players to overcome. His aggressive style suits a tournament where you’ll likely need to reach 20 under par or better to have a realistic chance of lifting the trophy.
There’s always going to be an element of risk with a player who hits it as far as Potgieter does, particularly on a course surrounded by water, but If he gets that balance right, his combination of power and ball striking could make him one of the most dangerous players in the field. Well worth having in your squad this week.
3. John Keefer (+5500)
World number 60 John Keefer is another player who stands out to me this week. As I’ve already mentioned, this is a course where quality tee to green golf is rewarded, and Keefer possesses exactly the sort of profile I’m looking for. He’s an outstanding driver of the golf ball, follows it up with excellent approach play, and consistently gives himself chances to attack flags.
The statistics only strengthen that case. Keefer ranks 9th in strokes gained off the tee, 15th in strokes gained approach, 2nd in greens in regulation, and 8th in proximity to the hole up against the PGA Tour players this season.
Those are elite numbers and exactly the sort of metrics that tend to translate well at TPC Twin Cities. If you’re consistently finding fairways, hitting greens and leaving yourself makeable birdie putts, you’re going to give yourself every chance of climbing the leaderboard.
The only real concern is the putter. He’s been fairly average on the greens this season, and on a course where the winning score is likely to push beyond 20 under par, he’ll need to convert a healthy percentage of the opportunities he creates. That said, I’d much rather back a player who is constantly giving himself birdie looks than someone relying on a hot putter to save pars.
Ultimately, I think Keefer is one of the more intriguing outsiders in the field. His long game is already of an exceptionally high standard, and if he can produce even an average week with the putter, he’ll create more than enough birdie chances to put himself firmly in contention. On a course that rewards elite ball striking and good putting, he’s certainly one to keep an eye on.
4. Casey Jarvis (+7000)
Casey Jarvis has enjoyed a superb season so far, claiming two DP World Tour titles and climbing to world number 63 in the process. Those victories were far from a surprise, as his game had been trending in the right direction for several weeks before everything came together. He broke through at the Kenya Open before backing it up in style by winning the South African Open on home soil just a week later, confirming that his rise is no fluke.
He’s a fantastic player to watch because his mindset is incredibly aggressive. Jarvis isn’t the type to plot his way around a golf course conservatively, his instinct is to just attack. That approach inevitably leads to the odd mistake or two, so you’ll have to accept that a few bogeys are almost guaranteed over the course of the week.
However, what makes him such an exciting betting proposition is his ability to more than make up for those mistakes with a relentless stream of birdies. When he gets on a run, he can produce some exceptionally low rounds.
I also think this week’s setup suits that style of play. The relatively flat greens allow players to be aggressive with their approach shots, without having to worry too much about finding the perfect section of the green. If you can keep the ball in play off the tee, it’s very much a course where you can take dead aim at the flags, and that should play into Casey Jarvis’ strengths.
The key for him will be keeping the driver under control and putting himself in position through the opening three rounds. If he does that, he’s already shown on multiple occasions that he has the firepower to contend on Sunday.
Jarvis is the type of player who can quickly go from a few shots off the lead to right in the mix with a barrage of birdies. There is undoubtedly some volatility to his game, so this isn’t a risk-free selection, but the upside is enormous. If everything clicks, Casey Jarvis has the talent to make a serious impact this week.
5. Matti Schmid (+9000)
Matti Schmid is another selection this week, and he’s very much a pick based on ability rather than statistics. If you’re someone who builds your card purely from the numbers, he’ll probably be a player you overlook. His statistical profile doesn’t immediately jump off the page, but I think there’s far more to Matti Schmid’s game than what the raw data suggests.
We’ve already seen this season that he has the ability to compete at the highest level. Schmid has recorded four top 10 finishes, including an outstanding tied 4th at the PGA Championship. You don’t contend in a major championship by accident, and that performance showed exactly what he’s capable of when every part of his game comes together.
If you can mix it with the world’s best on one of golf’s biggest stages, there’s every reason to believe you can contend in an event like the 3M Open.
What I like about Schmid is that we’ve already seen glimpses of his ceiling. He’s a player capable of producing elite golf, even if he hasn’t quite found the consistency yet. That’s hardly surprising when you consider he’s still adapting to life on the PGA Tour.
Stepping up to compete against the strongest fields in the world every week is a huge adjustment, and there have naturally been some ups and downs as he’s found his feet, and that’s why his stats look poor compared to his true ability.
This is why I’m prepared to look beyond the statistics. Sometimes it’s worth trusting the talent, and Schmid has plenty of it. He’s shown he can produce big performances, he’s already proven he isn’t fazed by the biggest occasions, and if he can find his best golf for four rounds, I think he’s more than capable of putting himself firmly in contention.
He may not be the obvious selection on paper, but that’s exactly what makes him appealing at the prices. While many will be put off by the numbers, I’m more interested in the player behind them. The ability is unquestionable, and if this is the week where everything clicks, Matti Schmid has every chance of rewarding those willing to take a chance on him.
6. Kris Ventura (+15000)
Kris Ventura has been flying under the radar this season, but he captured my attention recently. The Norwegian has quietly put together some solid performances, and I think he could be an interesting option this week at TPC Twin Cities. I suspect we will find out plenty about him in this tournament.
Ventura actually has a strong background, having played his college golf at Oklahoma State alongside fellow Norwegian Viktor Hovland. Both players came through one of the strongest college programmes in the country, and while Hovland has obviously gone on to become one of the biggest names in the game, Ventura has always had plenty of ability himself.
His biggest strength is his driving. He’s not one of the longest hitters on Tour, but he’s a very reliable and consistent driver of the golf ball, which is something I like around TPC Twin Cities. This course gives players opportunities to be aggressive off the tee, and Ventura’s ability to put himself in good positions without constantly bringing trouble into play is a real positive.
He currently ranks 29th in strokes gained off the tee, while also sitting inside the top 50 in strokes gained putting, giving him a nice combination of tee to green consistency and the ability to capitalise when he creates chances.
Ventura also isn’t afraid to be aggressive. When his game is clicking, he can go extremely low, which is important on a course where the winning score is likely to be well into double digits under par. Earlier this season, he finished runner up at the Zurich Classic, posting an incredible 30 under par total, proving that he has the scoring ability required to compete when everything comes together.
He also arrives here in some really encouraging form, finishing T5 at the ISCO Championship before following that up with a T15 finish at the Corales Puntacana Championship. Those results suggest his game is trending in the right direction, and I think he’s a player who could continue that momentum this week.
Overall, Ventura is exactly the type of player I like looking for at bigger prices. He doesn’t get the attention of some of the bigger names, but the underlying ability is there. He’s a good driver, capable of making plenty of birdies, and has shown he can compete when his game is on.
The Norwegian has been quietly catching my eye, and TPC Twin Cities feels like a venue where he has the tools to make an impact. I’ll take a chance on him here, and it will actually help us when we go to potentially back him in the future too. Interesting player here.
You must be logged in to comment. Don't have an account? Sign up today.