Best NRFI Bets Today – No Runs First Inning Picks UPDATED DAILY

Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays

The Cubs and Blue Jays shape up as a strong NRFI target tonight at Rogers Centre, with solid value on the board at -120.

Matt Boyd has quietly been one of the more consistent first-inning arms this season, boasting a 2.45 ERA and 1.05 WHIP across 23 starts. He’s dialed in lately, allowing zero earned runs in four of his last six outings and handling early innings with poise and confidence.

Matthew Boyd versus the Cardinals tonight:

5.0 IP | 7 H | 3 R | 3 K pic.twitter.com/D1TSxTgzq2

— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) August 9, 2025

On the other side, Max Scherzer appears to be flipping the switch. Despite a season ERA of 4.21, he’s been much sharper lately, with a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his last three starts.

Both pitchers are trending the right way, and neither offense jumps off the page as a fast starter. With form and matchup pointing in the same direction, the first inning looks like a prime candidate for zeroes on the board.

Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians

Miami and Cleveland check the right boxes for an NRFI bet that brings both value and confidence. Eury Perez is in a groove, allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts.

The 22-year-old has settled into his role with a 3.25 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 55.1 innings, and his recent form suggests he’s more than capable of blanking the Guardians early.

On the other side, Gavin Williams enters with a solid 3.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP across 125 innings. He’s been a model of early-game consistency, surrendering only two earned runs in four straight and five of his last six outings.

Gavin Williams receives a nice ovation from the crowd in Queens after coming just two outs away from a no-hitter 👏 pic.twitter.com/UdHDCpizVC

— MLB (@MLB) August 6, 2025

With two confident pitchers projected to start, NRFI at -130 is one of the best MLB prop bets today.

Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins

For the final NRFI play on the board, look to Target Field where the Tigers and Twins profile well for a scoreless first inning at -145.

Detroit sends Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal to the mound, and he’s been nearly automatic in early frames. With a 2.35 ERA and 0.86 WHIP over 145.1 innings, Skubal has dominated lineups all season. He’s coming off a rare slip-up against the Angels, but the bounce-back opportunity is strong, with the Twins hitters batting just .150 across 60 at-bats against him.

Tarik Skubal: That's F'n Horrible. 🤣

No lies were told. pic.twitter.com/cS42wNttX1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2025

Bailey Ober hasn’t been lights out overall with a 5.16 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but he matches up well against a Tigers’ lineup that’s mustered only a .227 average in 128 at-bats off him. Ober also looked sharp in his latest start, holding the Royals to just one earned run.

Both starters are positioned to handle the top of the order, so the NRFI holds strong betting value.

1. Check The Starting Lineups, Especially The Pitchers

You should always begin with the lineups. Check who the starting pitchers are and then go through the latest injuries and suspensions to see whether any of the teams will be missing key pieces.

We usually go to the CBS’ MLB injury report to see who’s out and who’s doubtful. They pull the data directly from league reports, so it’s trustworthy information.

2. Analyzing NRFI Stats

Once we know the most likely lineups, it’s time for a key step of our NRFI betting strategy: analyzing numbers. You need to go through various data points to determine how likely is for the opening inning of a game to end without any runs.

We explore the individual stats of the starting pitchers, we analyze the offensive numbers of both sides, and we also take a look at the total team stats for first inning runs.

Once we have a complete overview of what’s going on, we create our own estimates (in percentages) of how likely it is to see no runs in the first inning.

After that, it’s time to check the odds!

3. Line Shopping

It’s time to check some betting odds! We use two bookmakers that offer daily NRFI betting odds for the MLB: Bovada and BetWhale. We check their prices for all games and turn them into probabilities.

We compare them to our own estimates and when we see good betting value, we place our NRFI wagers!

We strongly recommend using multiple top betting sites yourself for the best results. The two we highlighted above are all excellent for no runs first inning bets.