Gotham Awards 2025 Betting Preview: Odds, Favorites, & Predictions

Best Lead Performance Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Jessie Buckley’s role as Agnes Shakespeare has received rave reviews, and she is in the leading position to win. Currently, Buckley holds a 66.7% implied probability to win Best Lead Performance at the 2025 Gotham Awards.

Buckley’s main rival in this category is Rose Byrne from If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Byrne is within Buckley’s sights at +200, which equals a 33.3% implied chance to win this highly coveted category.

The untold love story that inspired Shakespeare's greatest masterpiece.

Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal star in HAMNET, directed by Academy Award winner Chloé Zhao. Only in theaters this Thanksgiving. pic.twitter.com/Ls5v7cGl7Z

— Hamnet (@hamnetmovie) August 26, 2025

Hamnet and One Battle After Another are well-represented with several nominations. Both movies are going to enjoy a plethora of success, with Buckley in a prime position to deliver for Hamnet. It’s an emotional film about Agene’s grief and anguish over the death of her and William Shakespeare’s son.

Buckley isn’t leaving New York City, and I see her as the clear frontrunner and winner for Best Lead Performance.

Outstanding Supporting Performance Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

After high expectations at the Cannes Film Festival, Sentimental Value was unable to win the Palme d’Or despite being the betting favorite. However, the film is poised for major success during awards season.

Stellan Skarsgård is seen as a leading contender for the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor and has a strong chance at the Gotham Awards in this category. The 74-year-old Swede, holding -125 odds, has yet to win an Oscar but previously received a Golden Globe for his role in Chernobyl.

Skarsgård enjoys a slight edge over Teyana Taylor, with a 55.6% probability of winning. In what is expected to be a tight contest, Skarsgård is favored to prevail. He stars as Gustav Borg, an esteemed filmmaker estranged from his daughters, Nora and Agnes.

Stellan Skarsgard blows a kiss during the #Cannes standing ovation for Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” pic.twitter.com/UIOCXg2oV3

— Variety (@Variety) May 21, 2025

The film has received much praise overall, but Skarsgård’s performance stands out. While Taylor is deserving for her work in One Battle After Another, Skarsgård is the stronger bet, possibly for both the Gotham and the Oscar.

In summary, consider backing Skarsgård for your top Gotham Awards pick to win Outstanding Support Performance.

Breakthrough Performer Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Chase Infiniti certainly delivered a breakthrough performance in One Battle After Another. The 25-year-old American actress stood out in her role as Willa Ferguson, showcasing her talent and making a remarkable impression.

She’s truly established herself with this performance and is on track to become a household name this awards season. After her strong showing in One Battle After Another, expect her to receive many major roles in the future.

Will it be enough to win the Gotham for Breakthrough Performer? I think it’s almost certain. She is the clear favorite with -500 odds, with an 83.3% implied probability. From my perspective, Infiniti could easily command even shorter odds.

That said, rapper A$AP Rocky deserves tremendous credit for his role in Highest 2 Lowest. He stepped into a totally new territory and exceeded expectations as Archie (Yung Felon). His performance was better than many critics anticipated.

If he weren’t competing against Infiniti, A$AP Rocky would be my pick. However, Chase Infiniti’s performance is simply too strong to overlook. I’m confident she’ll take home the Breakthrough Performer award for One Battle After Another.

Best Feature Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

In a duel between One Battle After Another and Hamnet for Best Feature at the Gothams, it should be a tight race. These two films are all alone out ahead, with One Battle After Another in possession of a 63.6% chance, and Hamnet at 37.7%.

One Battle After Another has dominated reviews from critics and continues to rake in a hugely positive reception. Per Rotten Tomatoes, One Battle After Another owns a 94% rating, and the film scored a 4/4 on RogerEbert.com.

Not everyone is in love with the movie, but it’s a fun flick that has an easy plot and is simple to follow along. The acting is well done by the cast, including Infiniti, Taylor, and Leonardo DiCaprio.

Revolutionaries relentlessly pursued for decades by an army captain. One Battle After Another is politically sharp in its depiction of our society. It’s nightmarish, shocking, obscene, hilarious, and thought-provoking. The frantic score further amplifies the chaos. pic.twitter.com/0uYRPWmW5D

— Emi Eleode (@EmiEleode) September 26, 2025

Conversely, Hamnet doesn’t head into the Gotham Awards without any merit. The film scored an 88% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and is a solid look at Shakespear. It’s been done several times before, but Hamnet does it correctly. I don’t believe it has enough to outlast One Battle After Another, though.

In a potential preview of the Oscars, expect One Battle After Another to come out on top for Best Feature in NYC!

Best Director Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

Along with winning Best Feature, director Paul Thomas Anderson is in line to win Best Director. Currently, Anderson is in an overwhelmingly strong position with -250 odds to win the distinguished honor.

As the betting favorite, Anderson is in control with a 71.4% implied chance to win Best Director. Jafar Panahi is in the running for directing drama Un Simple Accident (It Was an Accident), which has been receiving fantastic reviews.

Jafar Panahi is "one of the most distinctive and courageous figures in the world of cinema."

IT WAS JUST AN ACCIDENT is now playing in select cities. Get tickets: https://t.co/zqlVzNNb46 pic.twitter.com/QIeqOysdJT

— NEON (@neonrated) October 29, 2025

The Iranian director could very well pull off the upset in New York City. Un Simple Accident has recorded a 97% rating on Rotten Tomatoes and Panahi was thrust into the spotlight in Cannes. Panahi went home with the Palme d’Or for Un Simple Accident to upset the favored Sentimental Value.

It has been quite a ride for Panahi to the top of the film industry. Sentenced to six years of prison in his home country of Iran for his staunch criticism of the government, he spent seven months behind bars before being ordered to leave the country in 2023.

Only two years later, Panahi was in Cannes holding up the Palme d’Or. Now, I think there’s a real chance he adds to his mantle with another big win. He should be closer to Anderson’s odds, so there is definite value at +200 on Panahi’s French drama. Play for the upset and back Panahi as one of the best Gotham Awards 2025 picks!