MLB Rookie of the Year 2026 Betting Preview: AL & NL ROY Odds & Predictions

AL Rookie of the Year Odds

Toronto Blue Jays’ starting pitcher Trey Yesavage (+370) opens as the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year, with an implied probability of 21.3%. He’ll look to build on a dominant stretch to close the 2025 regular season and into the playoffs.

Prized Japanese third baseman Munetaka Murakami (+450) of the Chicago White Sox isn’t far behind. He’s expected to have a strong debut campaign, and his +450 price gives him an 18.2% chance to claim the award.

Kansas City Royals’ catcher Carter Jensen (+475) rounds out the top three. After getting his first taste of big-league action last year and flashing in Spring Training, he sits at +475 with an implied probability of 17.4%.

With five players bunched between +370 and +600, the AL Rookie of the Year race is shaping up to be wide open.

NL Rookie of the Year Odds

Promising young Pittsburgh Pirates’ shortstop Konor Griffin (+180) is the clear favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year at top MLB betting sites. Per the latest MLB Rookie of the Year odds in the NL, Griffin has a 35.7% implied chance to be awarded the honor.

There is a clear gap between the top contenders and the rest of the field. New York Mets’ pitcher Nolan McLean (+400) leads the way with a 20% chance, followed closely by St. Louis Cardinals’ shortstop JJ Wetherholt at 19%.

From there, the MLB Rookie of the Year odds drop to Cincinnati’s Sal Stewart (+700) at 12.5%. While the National League doesn’t appear as wide open as the American League to start the season, it still shapes up to be an entertaining race.

Trey Yesavage (+370)

Yesavage made his debut last season and made an immediate impact for the Toronto Blue Jays. The 22-year-old was thrown into the midst of a postseason race and carried himself like a 10-year veteran.

After posting a 3.21 ERA and 1.43 WHIP across three starts, Yesavage continued to earn the club’s trust in big moments. Facing tough lineups, including the New York Yankees and LA Dodgers, he finished with a 3.58 ERA and 1.05 WHIP over 27.2 innings.

All TWELVE of Trey Yesavage's strikeouts tonight 👀 pic.twitter.com/ZrHqxrgUkm

— MLB (@MLB) October 30, 2025

Now, in what projects to be his first full season in the Major Leagues, anticipation is building that Yesavage can have a massive year and pitch like the future ace of this club. His high release point makes stepping into the box against him a difficult chore.

Even at just 22 years old, Yesavage’s splitter is already one of the toughest pitches to hit in baseball. He rode that splitter to 16 strikeouts through 14 innings in the regular season, then piled up another 39 punchouts in the playoffs. While the hype is justified, the Blue Jays are likely to remain cautious with their young right-hander.

Re-signing Max Scherzer is a clear signal that management doesn’t want to overwork Yesavage this early in his career. I’m generally not a big fan of betting on rookie pitchers to win Rookie of the Year, as two or three bad starts can derail a bid in a hurry.

Expect a solid campaign from the Blue Jays’ starter, but there are better MLB Rookie of the Year picks on the board.

Munetaka Murakami (+450)

As the most prized free agent from Japan this offseason, Murakami signed with the Chicago White Sox after they finished with the worst record in baseball last year. The organization is counting on him to help spark a resurgence in Chicago.

Murakami joins the White Sox after a Hall of Fame career in Japan. The 26-year-old left-handed power hitter is expected to see his game translate quickly to the Major League level. While he’ll go through a brief learning curve, he has the tools to impress early this season.

Japan was down to Mexico 5-4 in the bottom of the 9th inning until Munetaka Murakami hit a walk-off two-run double to send Japan to the 2023 WBC Championship! 🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/vylP68rASs

— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) March 1, 2026

In his final year in Japan, Murakami hit 24 home runs with 52 RBIs and a .286 batting average over 69 games, putting up those numbers against quality NPB pitching. That track record suggests he can find success at the top level of baseball.

Still, there are areas of concern. Murakami has a high strikeout rate, and his defense isn’t quite Gold Glove caliber. He can play both third and first base, so the White Sox will likely test him at both spots, but his bat should be the main attraction, giving Chicago much-needed power.

Even with his upside, there appears to be stronger value elsewhere on the board for your 2026 AL Rookie of the Year betting picks.

Carter Jensen (+475)

The Kansas City Royals are excited about Jensen’s potential, both at and behind the plate, heading into 2026. He was a bit hot and cold during his first 60 at-bats in 2025, but ultimately settled in and showed plenty of promise at the Major League level.

The Kansas City, MO, native finished his debut stint with a .300 batting average, three home runs, and 13 RBIs in 20 games. The Royals have relied on Salvador Perez as their primary catcher since 2015, and now, more than a decade later, Jensen looks like a candidate to follow in his footsteps as a perennial All-Star.

Carter Jensen will be an AL ROY Favorite. A few reasons why:

-Improved against LHP
-14 HR in 43 G in his AAA promotion w/ a 166 wRC+
-93.4 MPH Avg EV (AAA) (94th %ile)
-58.5% Hard-Hit% (AAA) (96th %ile)

He does a great job controlling the zone & makes great swing decisions. pic.twitter.com/ErletLjlZz

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) February 13, 2026

Jensen’s minor league production backs up the hype. Last season in the minors, he hit .290 with a .377 on-base percentage and 20 home runs over 111 games. Perez is still expected to handle most of the catching duties in 2026, but Jensen is simply too talented for Kansas City to keep him out of the lineup. He’s on fire with a .417 batting average with two home runs and four RBIs in just four Spring Training games.

Because of that, Jensen should see enough playing time to be firmly in the mix for AL Rookie of the Year. He can slot in as the designated hitter on some days, and the Royals will likely look for chances to rest the 35-year-old Perez by giving Jensen additional starts behind the plate.

At +475, Jensen is well worth keeping on the radar as a legitimate contender to win the AL Rookie of the Year award in 2026.

Konor Griffin (+180)

The Pirates haven’t had much to celebrate in recent years, but they do have two of the most talented young players in baseball. Along with Paul Skenes, Griffin is a highly touted youngster poised to make a major impact.

Rated No. 1 in MLB’s Top 100 prospect rankings, he’s expected to be a focal point of the Pirates’ offense for years to come. The 19-year-old shortstop posted a .333 batting average and .415 on-base percentage in the minors last year.

Griffin also belted 21 home runs and drove in 94 runs over 122 games. Despite not yet appearing in a regular-season Major League contest, he looks ready to hit the ground running as his big-league career begins.

Konnor Griffin AGAIN 🏴‍☠️

MLB's top prospect smashes his third Grapefruit League homer 408 feet for the @Pirates: pic.twitter.com/tks2AyJqrS

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) March 1, 2026

Spring Training has looked almost too easy for the 6’3” right-hander. He’s already launched three home runs and collected six RBIs in just 11 at-bats. This is a player who looks ready to go, and best of all with Griffin, you can be confident he’ll get consistent at-bats and steal plenty of bases in 2026.

The Pirates are in desperate need of offense, and Griffin is poised to deliver. It’s no surprise that he enters the year with the best odds to win the 2026 NL Rookie of the Year award.

Nolan McLean (+400)

The Mets are banking on 24-year-old right-hander McLean to pick up where he left off late last season. In eight starts a year ago, he posted a 2.06 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 48 innings, piling up 57 strikeouts and finishing with a 5-1 record.

Those bright spots were rare in an otherwise bleak season for the Mets, who fell short of expectations and were eliminated from postseason contention. That’s why fans are clinging to the hope that a young arm like McLean can help push them over the top this year.

NASTY stuff from Nolan McLean 🤢 pic.twitter.com/J7QsG30WC0

— MLB (@MLB) August 28, 2025

So far, the early returns in Spring Training are encouraging. McLean has thrown four scoreless innings, logging a 0.00 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. The former Oklahoma State starter surrendered just one hit and one walk in his first outing of the spring. I’m confident he’ll make an impact, though the question is how big that impact will be.

I’m expecting a solid rookie campaign, but McLean would need to be sensational to outshine Griffin. Most rookie pitchers aren’t on a Paul Skenes-type trajectory. While I like McLean’s upside, he doesn’t project to that generational tier. Skenes is in a category of his own among the young pitchers.

A cold stretch or two is likely, and that may be enough to keep him from pulling away in the NL Rookie of the Year race. Given that, McLean’s +400 odds to win NL ROY don’t make my shortlist.

JJ Wetherholt (+425)

The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing 2025 season, finishing 78-84 and placing fourth in the NL Central, 19 games behind the Brewers. Now, they’re hoping shortstop JJ Wetherholt can help usher in a new era of baseball in St. Louis.

Wetherholt, ranked No. 5 on MLB’s Top 100 prospects list, impressed in the minors last season. The 23-year-old hit .306 with 17 home runs and 59 RBIs, pairing that with a .421 on-base percentage and a .931 OPS.

🗣️ JJ WETHERHOLT HOME RUN HALF WAY UP THE BATTERS EYE OFF DEVIN WILLIAMS 😤💣 pic.twitter.com/kBlj2xo0xd

— Cardinals Talk (@theredbird_way) February 27, 2026

Despite having no Major League experience, Wetherholt has been swinging a hot bat in Spring Training. The Maryland native is hitting .300 with one home run and four RBIs in six games. After struggling in camp a year ago, he appears to have made clear strides.

Wetherholt’s defensive ability at shortstop, combined with his offensive upside, should make him a serious Rookie of the Year contender. He’s likely to push Griffin in the NL race, even if he may be playing catch-up as the season unfolds.