NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, October 30: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Franz Wagner +600 (Magic vs. Raptors)

Franz Wagner is a top first basket bet against the Toronto Raptors at +600 odds. Orlando has been dominant at the opening tip, winning 100% of its jump balls to start the 2026-27 season.

That success continues a trend from last year, when the Magic ranked among the NBA’s top five teams in jump-ball success. With a strong chance of securing the first possession, Orlando is in an excellent position to strike first.

Franz Wagner 🎥🔥 pic.twitter.com/bABTRpuyt0

— Orlando Magic (@OrlandoMagic) October 15, 2026

Wagner’s aggressive scoring approach makes him an appealing target to finish that opening possession. He’s averaging 19.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, and six assists per game through four appearances this season. He’s also taking on a significant offensive role, averaging 17 field-goal attempts per game.

Wagner has already demonstrated his scoring ability with a 22-point performance against Atlanta and 23 points against New York. His combination of size, driving ability, and midrange scoring makes him difficult to contain.

With Orlando’s opening-tip advantage and Wagner’s strong start offensively, +600 offers excellent value. We’re backing the Magic forward to capitalize on the first possession and put the opening points on the board.

Jayson Tatum +450 (Bulls vs. Celtics)

Jayson Tatum is one of our best NBA first basket bets tonight at +450 odds against the Chicago Bulls. Boston has won 100% of its opening-tip opportunities to start the 2026-27 season, giving the Celtics an excellent chance to secure the first possession. With Tatum leading the offensive attack, he’s the player we want finishing that opening sequence.

Tatum is off to an outstanding start, averaging 28 points, eight assists, and 6.3 rebounds per game through his first four appearances. He’s also averaging 21.5 field-goal attempts per game, showing just how aggressively he’s looking for scoring opportunities.

HAVE YOURSELF A NIGHT, JAYSON TATUM!

☘️ 40 PTS
☘️ 8 AST
☘️ 5 REB
☘️ 1 @TISSOT BUZZER-BEATER IN OT

Tonight marks his 7th career game-winning shot with under 3 seconds remaining… that's the most since the start of the 2019-20 NBA season! pic.twitter.com/I0du5uQhvS

— NBA (@NBA) October 28, 2026

That volume is exactly what we want when targeting a first-basket scorer. Tatum can attack the rim, create separation for midrange jumpers, and knock down perimeter shots. He’s playing with confidence and isn’t shy about taking over offensively, making him an ideal candidate to score before Chicago’s defense gets organized.

With Boston’s perfect opening-tip record and Tatum’s impressive scoring form, +450 offers excellent value. We’re backing the Celtics superstar to capitalize on the first possession and put the opening points on the board.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.