NBA Play-In Tournament 2026 Odds and Predictions: Who Will Advance?

Charlotte Hornets vs. Orlando Magic Odds and Prediction (East Play-In)

The Hornets are favored in this East matchup with an implied probability of 61.4% over the Magic, who come back with a 43.5% chance for the upset, according to the bookies. Charlotte won three of four against Orlando this season, including both in the Magic Kingdom.

To get here, the Hornets won a 127-126 overtime three over Miami on Tuesday, as LaMelo Ball had 30 points and 10 assists. Ball was also the source of controversy as he tripped Miami’s Bam Adebayo, knocking the Heat star out of the game. He was fined $35,000 for his actions, but he’ll play in this game.

Another big contributor was Miles Bridges, with 28 points, nine boards, and three blocks for the Hornets, who overcame a bad night from Rookie of the Year contender Kon Knueppel.

The Magic struggled in a 109-97 loss in Philadelphia on Wednesday, and once again, the offense couldn’t come up with enough buckets. Desmond Bane had 34 points to lead the way, but Paolo Banchero (18 points, 7-of-22 from the field) and Franz Wagner (12 points, 5-of-11) were unable to get going. The Orlando duo also combined to go 0-of-7 from three-point land, and the Magic shot 7-of-27 from long range as a team. In today’s NBA, that simply won’t cut it.

Golden State Warriors vs. Phoenix Suns Odds and Prediction (West Play-In)

The Suns are the favorites at home in this game, coming in with a 59.5% implied probability, compared to 45.2% for the Warriors. Golden State took three of four from the Suns this season, going 1-1 in the desert.

It was vintage Stephen Curry and Draymond Green in the Warriors’ 126-121 road win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Wednesday. Curry poured in 35 points, including 27 in the second half, as the Warriors came back from 13 down with 9:53 to play.

Green had seven points, six rebounds, nine assists, and four steals. He also did a brilliant defensive job on Kawhi Leonard, holding the Clippers’ talisman scoreless in the fourth quarter. It showed the championship experience that the Warriors have, including from former Celtics Kristaps Porzingis (20 points) and Al Horford (14 points).

The Suns fell 114-110 at home to Portland on Tuesday, as they were unable to slow down Deni Avdija, who had 41 points. Jalen Green had 35 points, while Devin Booker had 22 for the Suns, and Green had 29 shots to 17 for Booker.

Phoenix would probably want to see those numbers reversed on Friday. The Suns’ bench was also outscored 33-17. But the biggest issue was Phoenix’s inability to prevent Avdija from doing whatever he wanted, and they can’t afford to let Curry do the same against the Warriors.