2026 NBA Playoffs First Round Predictions and Odds

Toronto Raptors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Series Odds and Prediction

The Cavaliers (52-30) face the Raptors (46-36), who beat Cleveland in all three matchups this season. However, all three games came in the first half of the regular season, the most recent being November 24, 2025.

Cleveland shook up their team at the trade deadline, trading Darius Garland to the LA Clippers for James Harden, who teams up with Donovan Mitchell for a high-powered backcourt. Mitchell finished seventh in the league with 27.9 points per game, and Harden is fourth in the NBA with 8.0 assists. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are a huge frontcourt, but there is a hole at the small-forward spot.

The Raptors are loaded at the wing spot with Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, and RJ Barrett. They’ll need Jakob Poeltl, Collin Murray-Boyles, and Sandro Mamukelashvili to play well against the Cavs’ big men. But the Raptors were quietly fifth in defensive rating this season, and having Barnes, one of the league’s most versatile defenders, helps a lot. But will the Raptors put Barnes on Harden, Mitchell, or maybe Mobley?

I think Cleveland has too much firepower at guard for Toronto, but I do think the Raptors will squeak out a couple of wins, especially at home. Cleveland’s NBA first-round odds of -550 don’t offer any value.

However, I’m willing to take the Total Games Played prop of Over 5.5 at -115. I believe the Raptors can take this to at least six games, and get you a little value out of this series.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Series Odds and Prediction

Denver (54-28) and Minnesota (49-33) meet in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. The Nuggets won 4-1 in the first round in 2023 en route to an NBA title. The Timberwolves beat the Nuggets in seven games the next season. The Nuggets won three of four against Minnesota in this regular season.

Denver is powered by three-time MVP Nikola Jokic, and it could be four if he gets the votes this season. Jokic led the league in rebounding and assists, the first player to ever do so, and he was also eighth in scoring.

Furthermore, Jamal Murray was mostly healthy this season, while Aaron Gordon looks to be fit now after struggling with injuries all season long. However, Denver is awaiting word on guard Peyton Watson, who hurt his hamstring late in the season.

Anthony Edwards and Jaden McDaniels look to be healthy for the Timberwolves, who can be great some nights, and terrible on other nights. Edwards is the key, although Ayo Dosunmu has been excellent since he was traded from Chicago. The Timberwolves have proven they can beat Denver in the playoffs, but the lack of consistency is a problem.

That’s why I’m taking Denver to win 4-2 with NBA first-round odds of +450. Jokic averaged 35.8 points, 15.0 rebounds, and 11.3 assists in four games against Minnesota, largely guarded by Rudy Gobert. Murray averaged 31.5 points against the Timberwolves. Minnesota’s defense can’t stop Denver’s top-rated offense, and I think that’s the difference here.

Atlanta Hawks vs. New York Knicks Series Odds and Prediction

The Knicks (53-29) are major NBA first-round betting favorites over the Hawks (46-36), who lost two of three to New York this season.

The Hawks turned a corner after trading Trae Young to Washington, and handed the keys to Jalen Johnson. The 24-year-old forward averaged 22.5 points, 10.3 boards, and 7.9 assists this season, and the Atlanta offense takes better shots with Young gone.

CJ McCollum adds a veteran presence and shot-making, and former Timberwolf Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been great. The Hawks are also decent at defending, ranking tenth in defensive rating.

The Knicks are powered by Jalen Brunson, sitting tenth in the NBA with 26.0 points per game. Karl-Anthony Towns improved defensively, while averaging 20.1 points and 11.9 rebounds. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges are solid, if unspectacular, wings. They’re also deeper than last year, and Josh Hart is one of the league’s top role players. The Knicks are also balanced, ranking fifth in net rating.

Like many of the NBA first-round playoff betting odds, the Knicks’ price to win isn’t worth the juice. But I like the prop of the Knicks to win Game 1 and win the series at -145. The Knicks are 30-10 at Madison Square Garden, and those fans will be rabid for Game 1.

I also expect from the Knicks will win the series, as the Hawks aren’t ready for postseason success just yet. There is definitely value in this NBA first-round betting prop.

Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers Series Odds and Prediction

The Rockets (52-30) take on the shorthanded Lakers (53-29), who dropped two of three to Houston this season.

However, the Lakers are going into this series severely undermanned. NBA scoring leader Luka Dončić is unlikely to play after a hamstring injury that was more serious than initially thought. Austin Reaves is also missing with an oblique injury, but he might be back by the end of the series, if the Lakers can extend it.

That puts a lot of pressure on LeBron James, who is in his 23rd NBA season. James is used to putting a team on his back in the playoffs. But at 41 years old, that’s a massive ask of “King” James, even with the Lakers winning homecourt advantage.

The Rockets have their issues as an offense featuring Kevin Durant and Alperen Şengün looks stilted at times, especially late in games. Amen Thompson has improved at that end, but he’s still not there yet. Coach Ime Udoka doesn’t seem to trust Reed Sheppard to run the offense. But the Rockets have more weapons on both ends of the floor than the injury-riddled Lakers.

Therefore, my NBA first-round betting prediction for this series is another prop, and that’s the Rockets to win 4-1 at +265. I have too much respect for James and coach JJ Redick to think they’ll get swept. They’ll find a way to win one game, probably at home. But without Dončić and Reaves, the Lakers just don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Rockets.

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs Series Odds and Prediction

The Spurs (62-20) will face off with Portland (42-40), who beat Phoenix in the NBA Play-In round to earn the seventh seed. San Antonio won two of three against Portland during the regular season.

The Spurs battled hard for the first seed in the West, but fell just short of Oklahoma City. Still, it has been a terrific season for the Spurs, as Victor Wembanyama emerged as an NBA MVP candidate, averaging 25.0 points, while finishing fourth in rebounds and first in blocks. He’s the runaway favorite in the NBA DPOY odds after making the 65-game limit.

Wemby has a great supporting cast with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Keldon Johnson, and Dylan Harper. They’re third in both offensive and defensive rating. The only aspect of the Spurs I’m skeptical about is their lack of playoff experience. Outside of Harrison Barnes, there aren’t a lot of postseason reps on this team.

The Trail Blazers won 114-110 in Phoenix to make it to the first round, and Deni Avdija was the best player on the court with 41 points, 12 assists, and five rebounds. Avdija made his first All-Star game and is one of the league’s breakout stars.

He will be assisted by Shaedon Sharpe and Jeremi Grant, who are a mix of youth and experience at the wings, while Jrue Holiday provides veteran leadership. Donovan Clingan finished third in rebounding. However, the supporting cast has to step up because Avdija isn’t going to average 40 points in a series against the Spurs.

There is absolutely no value in the Spurs’ NBA playoff first-round betting odds at -2000. But I’ll take the prop of the Spurs to win 4-1 at +190. I think Portland can sneak one out at home, but the Spurs have “Wemby”, who is salivating at the thought of his first playoff experience. I don’t know if the Spurs can win the title, but they can win this series in five games.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics Series Odds and Prediction

Philadelphia (45-37) beat Orlando at home to take the seventh seed and take on Boston (56-26), who split four meetings with the 76ers in the regular season.

Boston was supposed to have a down year, but no one told coach Joe Mazzulla or Jaylen Brown. Mazzulla coached the team hard all season, and Brown might make the All-NBA first team. The Celtics finished second in offensive rating, and fourth in defensive rating and net rating.

Brown is one of the best two-way players in the league. Payton Pritchard took a step up offensively, and Derrick White was fantastic, outside of shooting. Neemias Qeuta emerged as a solid player in the post, and Nikola Vucevic looks settled after getting traded from Chicago.

Now, the Celtics have Jayson Tatum back after his Achilles injury. He has struggled shooting the ball, but Tatum is doing everything else and looks to be content to play the second banana to Brown. Even though the Celtics are the second seed in the East, with their championship experience, I think they’re the best team in the conference, and the NBA playoff odds reflect that.

Philadelphia handled Orlando 109-97 in the play-in round, led by Tyrese Maxey’s 31 points. Maxey could also find his way onto an All-NBA team, finishing fifth in the league with 28.3 points.

Paul George, who missed time with injuries and a PED suspension, had 16 points, five rebounds, and five assists in a solid all-around game. Rookie VJ Edgecombe had 19 points and 11 rebounds for the 76ers, who are without Joel Embiid due to appendicitis. However, they should be used to not having their former MVP center now.

If the 76ers had a healthy Embiid, I would give them a small chance of an upset. Still, I won’t be betting on Boston’s NBA first-round playoff odds at -900 to win. But I’ll take the Celtics to win 4-1 at +210, as I believe the 76ers will get a win at home. However, Boston is deep, well-coached, and balanced, and the 76ers won’t be able to keep up with them.