NBA Playoffs 2024 First Round Predictions & Betting Odds

The action-packed NBA postseason has finally arrived, which means it is time to make our 2024 NBA Playoff predictions! I explore all first-round matchups and dissect the latest odds at the sports betting sites.

The NBA Playoffs are scheduled to take place from April 20, 2024, to the NBA Finals in June. Before the opening round, ensure that you have locked in your NBA Playoff first-round picks.

I’m here to help by sharing my NBA betting strategy and best bets for the first round of the 2024 NBA Playoffs!

Philadelphia 76ers vs. New York Knicks Odds, Predictions, and Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The New York Knicks (50-32) welcome the Philadelphia 76ers (47-35) to open the 2024 NBA Playoffs at Madison Square Garden. The Knicks enter the series as a -120 favorite to defeat the 76ers in the first round.

The odds suggest that the Knicks have an implied probability of 54.5% to beat the 76ers in this opening-round series. I think this comes as a surprise to many people. Joel Embiid recently made his return to the 76ers, while Julius Randle is undergoing surgery.

The 76ers eked past the Miami Heat 105-104 in the NBA Play-In Tournament to book a date with the Knicks. Despite Randle’s absence, this is likely going to be a tough matchup for the 76ers.

One of the reasons is that OG Anunoby recently made his return to the starting lineup. The acquisition of the former Raptor has made an already stout defense even stronger. New York is second in the NBA with 108.2 points allowed per game.

The Knicks have conceded just 0.963 points per possession¹. They are one of the best teams in the league at slowing a game right down and making teams work for every point.

Playing a defense like that over a seven-game series can be physically and mentally exhausting, so I am not surprised that they are favored. Also, the emergence of Jalen Brunson has given the Knicks a prime scoring threat in the backcourt.

All factors considered, the 76ers at even odds is a slight trap play. The public will likely support Philly, but I like the stronger defense and well-rounded roster. For your 2024 NBA Playoff best bets, consider the Knicks over the 76ers in the first round.

Orlando Magic vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Odds, Predictions, and Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The Orlando Magic (47-35) return to the NBA Playoffs for the first time since the NBA Bubble in 2020. They head to Cleveland to open a seven-game series versus the Cavaliers (48-34).

Despite these two teams nearly even this season, the Cavaliers are heavily favored to beat the Magic. The price suggests an implied chance of 66.7% for the Cavs to beat the Magic.

In addition to finishing just a game apart in the standings, the Cavaliers and Magic split the regular season series with two wins apiece. Statistically, are the teams even, as well?

Offensively, they aren’t that far off, with the Cavaliers averaging 112.6 points and the Magic 110.5 points per game in 2023-24. Additionally, their defensive metrics line up closely, with the Magic third in the league with a defensive rating of 110.8 and the Cavaliers seventh at 114.7.

For casual fans, Orlando’s defense might be the biggest surprise. Only the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves’ defensive ratings are stronger than the Magic. They may also be shocked to find that Orlando was often a good bet on the point spread this season!

The Magic went 51-31-0 (62.2%) against the spread, as oddsmakers continually undervalued them throughout the season. This is another example where the Magic are underestimated.

This match-up should be really close, so getting +170 for the Magic makes them one of the NBA Playoffs 2024 best bets for the first round.

Phoenix Suns vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds, Predictions, and Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The Phoenix Suns (49-33) and Minnesota Timberwolves (56-26) clash in what should be a thrilling Western Conference Playoffs matchup. Despite their better record, the Timberwolves the underdog against the Suns at most NBA betting sites.

This team took a huge leap forward this season. After finishing eighth with a record of 42-40 in 2022-23, Minnesota progressed all the way to 56-26 and third in the West!

Head coach Chris Finch has transformed the Timberwolves’ defense from a doormat into one of the most feared units in the NBA. Minnesota led the league with a defensive rating of 108.4.

Additionally, the Timberwolves allowed the fewest points per game and opponent field goal percentage. Rudy Gobert, who is favored to win the Defensive Player of the Year NBA award, has helped propel the Timberwolves into a new era. Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in the paint are imposing figures.

This team is efficient offensively, too. Minnesota is tenth in the league, with a team field goal percentage of 48.6%. It’s going to be interesting against a team that mostly relies on their starters.

The Suns’ depth off the bench hurt them in the playoffs last season, and they appear to be in the same position.

In 2023-24, Phoenix averaged just 26.6 points per game off the bench². A lack of depth against a defensive-minded, physical squad like the Timberwolves can be difficult to compete with.

As a generous underdog at +115, my NBA Playoffs 2024 first round predictions includes the Timberwolves. I prefer the stronger defensive team with home-court advantage, so consider Minnesota to get it done for your first-round NBA betting picks.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Los Angeles Clippers Odds, Predictions, and Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The Dallas Mavericks (50-32) and Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) have an exciting first-round series planned in the Western Conference. There are stars all over the court in this one, as Luka Dončić takes on Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.

Head coach Tyronn Lue hopes that Leonard will be active, at least. Unfortunately, the star is questionable for game 1 due to knee inflammation. It’s been a recurring problem for Leonard, who intends to play, but it will probably come to a game-time decision.

As a result, the Mavericks are a -130 favorite, with an implied probability of 56.5% to win the series. If Leonard has the green light to play, the NBA Playoff series odds on this matchup will shift.

With that in mind, it’s tough to pick this series right now. Nevertheless, the Clippers as an underdog is worth considering. The team is aware of how to play without Leonard in the lineup by now. He’s been on and off the floor since starting his career in Los Angeles.

The Mavericks and Clippers are pretty well even statistically in 2023-24. The Clippers have a slight advantage in average point differential at +3.3 versus +2.2. Additionally, they have the edge in the regular season series with two wins in three meetings.

As an underdog with home-court advantage, the Clippers’ NBA Playoff series odds are worth considering at +110. This is more of a coin flip series, so I suggest locking in the better price.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Odds, Predictions, Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The Denver Nuggets (57-25) are the biggest favorites of the first-round matchups. With -400 odds, the champions come into the series as a 80% favorite of beating the Lakers!

The Nuggets are supported by the overwhelming NBA Most Valuable Player favorite, Nikola Jokic. The 29-year-old native of Sombor, Serbia, made another MVP season look effortless.

Jokic averaged 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, and nine assists per game. He shot an impressive 58.3% from the field and 35.9% from three-point territory³. While the Lakers matched up well against the New Orleans Pelicans in the Play-In Tournament, they do not with Jokic and the Nuggets.

There aren’t many teams in the league that match up well against Jokic, but the Lakers, in particular, have had issues. The same applies to Jamal Murray, who has had a lot of success versus this team. Anthony Davis isn’t his best against big men who can spread the floor and play physically.

Additionally, Murray has thrived versus a Lakers team that is weak defensively on the perimeter. In the sweep of the Lakers last year, the guard averaged 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per game. He was also red-hot from the field with a 52.7% field goal percentage.

The Lakers have been playing solid basketball over the last month. However, they do not match up well against the Nuggets, so consider backing Denver to win this series in six games.

Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds, Predictions, Pick

The following NBA Playoffs 2024 first round odds are courtesy of Bovada:

The Indiana Pacers (47-35) are slight favorites over the Milwaukee Bucks (49-33) to open the postseason. The NBA Playoff 2024 series odds suggest that this is close to a coin-flip matchup.

With All-Star Giannis Antetokounmpo absent for this series, the tables have shifted toward the Pacers. Doc Rivers is leaning on Brook Lopez filling Antetokounmpo’s void, but that’s asking too much.

Lopez is slowing down at this point in his career and struggling to keep up in transition. This isn’t a good problem to have, as the Pacers are amongst the best teams in the NBA in transition.

They average 26.2 points per game in transition, which is tied for the second-best mark in the league. When Antetokounmpo isn’t on the floor, it’s evident that the Bucks aren’t the same team running the floor defensively.

Indiana was superior to the Bucks in average point differential this season. The Pacers recorded a +3.1 and the Bucks had a +2.6 point differential⁴. Losing seven out of ten games to end the regular season didn’t help.

Damian Lillard clearly isn’t thrilled to be in Milwaukee, and with Antetokounmpo not playing, I don’t know if he goes full out here. Given the “Greek Freak” injury and the Pacers streaking at the perfect time, I recommend betting on Indiana and backing the team if you enter an NBA Playoff contest.

Ready to play at Bovada

Welcome Bonus

75% up to $750

• Tiered Loyalty Rewards Program Redeemable for Cash Bonuses
• Great Mobile Live Betting Interface
• Excellent Prop Builder

Visit Site