The NFL Coach of the Year odds for 2024-25 clearly show that predicting this one is really hard. The award (usually) doesn’t go to the team with the best record or who the NFL perceives as the best coach. Instead, the award has generally gone to coaches who had to overcome a lot of injuries or the coach whose team outperformed expectations.
Last year, the winner was Kevin Stefanski of the Browns, who had to overcome losing his star QB and RB early in the season. The Browns went on to be the No. 5 seed in the AFC with double-digit wins, which was enough to get the award.
Who will take home the honor for the 2024-2025 NFL season? I analyze the latest odds of the top NFL bookies and share my predictions for next year’s NFL Coach of the Year award in this article.
NFL Coach Of The Year Odds for 2024-25
| Coach (Team) | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jim Harbaugh (Chargers) | +700 |
| Raheem Morris (Falcons) | +900 |
| Matt LaFleur (Packers) | +1000 |
| Shane Steichen (Colts) | +1400 |
| DeMeco Ryans (Texans) | +1400 |
| Mike Macdonald (Seahawks) | +1400 |
| Robert Saleh (Jets) | +1600 |
| Matt Eberflus (Bears) | +1600 |
| Sean McVay (Rams) | +2000 |
| Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) | +2000 |
One of the things that you’ll notice right away is that the odds for the Coach of the Year award vary significantly from site to site more than you would expect. These prices are from BetUS, but depending on the site, the odds can be drastically different.
Another noticeable thing is how close the odds are between coaches. Sportsbooks don’t have a great feel for who should be considered the favorite, but it is worth mentioning that coaches like Andy Reid, Kyle Shanahan, and John Harbaugh didn’t make the top 10 in odds.
These three are widely viewed as the top coaches in the league. Because of their track record, they are expected to win double-digit games each season. For whatever reason, voters don’t give this award to the team that wins the most games. Instead, they give it to the coach who had the most surprising season. With that in mind, let’s move on to the most likely winners for 2024-25.
NFL Coach Of The Year 2024-25 Main Favorites
There are a handful of coaches who are favorites to win the 2024-2025 Coach of the Year award. Most of the teams they are coaching missed the playoffs last season, and their overall rosters aren’t comparable to those of the top teams in the league.
Here is a look at the top three favorites to win the 2024-2025 Coach of the Year award.
Jim Harbaugh (+700)
The clear-cut favorite for the COY award is Jim Harbaugh, who is taking over the Los Angeles Chargers. His job will be hard, after the franchise traded away Keenan Allen and released Mike Williams.
The Jim Harbaugh effect 👀
Can he turn around the Chargers? pic.twitter.com/lEsO1xomMz
— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) March 25, 2024
Harbaugh is in a division with Andy Reid and MVP betting favorite Patrick Mahomes, which makes it very unlikely that they will compete for the AFC West title. The AFC is incredibly deep, so it’s hard to imagine the Chargers being a real contender this season. However, Harbaugh is widely viewed as one of the top coaches in football and if there is anyone who can turn the Chargers around fast, it’s him.
Raheem Morris (+900)
After beating out Bill Belichick for the head coaching job in Atlanta, Raheem Morris is back with the Falcons and has a new quarterback in Kirk Cousins. They are currently the favorites to win the NFC South despite the Buccaneers winning the division in each of the past three seasons.
Still, everyone expects the Falcons to be significantly improved with Morris as the head coach and Cousins at QB. How much better would the Falcons need to be for Morris to win the award? That is still to be determined.
Matt LaFleur (+1000)
The Packers were one of the most surprising teams in the NFL last season, making the playoffs and advancing to Round 2. Jordan Love improved significantly in the second half of the season, and the Packers went on a run.
Still, it’s a little strange to see LaFleur this high on the odds, considering everyone believes that the Packers will be right back in the playoff hunt again this season. Armed with a better team and Love entering Year 2 as a starter, the Packers should be a double-digit win team, but that is expected. And usually, those types of seasons don’t produce COY award winners.
Top NFL Coach Of The Year Sleepers
Unlike most end-of-season awards, sleepers take home the Coach of the Year award at an alarming rate. That’s because it’s really hard to project which coaches and teams will have to overcome adversity in the upcoming season.
Longshots for this award are often great value, especially considering there are only 32 coaches who can potentially win this award. Here are some of my favorite COY value bets for the upcoming season:
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One of the best bets on the board is Robert Saleh of the New York Jets. After losing Aaron Rodgers in Week 1 of the 2023 season, the Jets still managed to win seven games and were highly competitive for most of the season.
Not only do the Jets get back Rodgers this season, they made some significant improvements on offense. The team attracted veterans Tyron Smith and Mike Williams to help make the offense more dynamic. They should be significantly better in scoring this season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Jets won the AFC East. If that does happen, expect Saleh to be in the running for the Coach of the Year award.
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The Cardinals were among the worst teams in the NFL for most of last season, but they played much better down the stretch for first-year coach Jonathan Gannon. Heading into Year 2, Gannon will have a healthy Kyler Murray under center, and they should be able to add an elite playmaker with the No. 4 pick.
The Cardinals don’t have the most talented roster in the league, and they play in a division with the 49ers and the Rams. Still, the Cardinals competed with both teams last year, and a healthy Murray gives them a chance to be a Wild Card team in 2024.
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Quinn inherits a team that went 4-13 last season and had the No. 32-ranked scoring defense (30.5 points per game). The good news is that the Commanders own the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft and had the most cap space in the NFL entering free agency.
They’ve already made huge improvements to the roster, and the team should only get younger and more athletic during the draft. The Commanders play in the NFC East, which has two bonafide contenders in the Cowboys and the Eagles. However, it shouldn’t take Quinn too long to turn things around in Washington.
I expect a respectable season by the team, so getting +2600 for a coach that’s in the perfect situation to improve significantly makes a lot of sense.
2024-25 Prediction and Betting Pick
Predicting the NFL Coach of the Year award is always incredibly difficult because no one can tell which teams will have to overcome injuries or challenging circumstances during the upcoming season. The best strategy is to take a coach with high odds and hope for the best.
The best bet on the board is Dan Quinn at +2600 with the Washington Commanders. We already know that he’s a good coach after taking the Falcons to the Super Bowl in 2016 and helping the Cowboys become one of the top defenses in the league over the past three seasons.
The Commanders are in a very difficult division, but the NFC isn’t all that deep. Could Quinn lead the organization to a Wild Card berth in Year 1? It certainly doesn’t seem all that difficult, especially if they hit on a quarterback with the No. 2 pick. Taking Quinn at +2600 is good odds for a coach with a proven track record like his.
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