Mastering NFL Sports Betting Stats: The Best Football Statistics to Track

EPA per Play (Expected Points Added)

How It Works

Expected Points Added (EPA) assigns a point value to every situation on the field based on down, distance, field position, and time remaining. A 5-yard run on 3rd & 2 from the opponent’s 30-yard line yields a much higher positive EPA than a 5-yard run on 3rd & 15 from your own 10-yard line.

By averaging this across a game or season, EPA per play measures overall play-by-play value.

Why It’s Important & Example

Traditional yardage totals can be deeply misleading, so a team accumulating 400 yards in garbage time looks great on paper but was never competitive. EPA per play measures impactful output.

For instance, if Team A and Team B both score 24 points per game, but Team A ranks top-5 in offensive EPA per play while Team B relies on lucky defensive touchdowns, Team A is far more likely to cover the spread next week.

Resource

You can track updated EPA per play rankings at StatRankings NFL Advanced Stats.

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average)

How It Works

Created by Football Outsiders and now hosted on FTN Network, DVOA breaks down every single play and compares success against a league baseline. Crucially, it adjusts for the opponent. A 10-yard gain against the league’s top defense earns a higher DVOA score than a 10-yard gain against the worst defense.

Why It’s Important & Example

Early in the season, a team might start 4-0 against bottom-tier opponents and look like a Super Bowl contender. DVOA accounts for schedule strength, preventing bettors from backing an inflated favorite.

If an undefeated team ranks only 18th in overall DVOA, they are a prime target for a fade against a battle-tested underdog. This is undoubtedly among the most important NFL sports betting statistics.

Resource

Find official DVOA tables and team breakdowns at FTN Fantasy Stats.

ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt)

How It Works

ANY/A is an advanced passing metric calculated as:

Pressure Rate

How It Works

Pressure Rate measures the percentage of drop backs on which a defense hits, hurries, or sacks the opposing quarterback. Unlike simple sack counts, which are volatile and often depend on QB mistake-taking, pressure rate evaluates how consistently a front seven disrupts the pocket.

Why It’s Important & Example

Quarterback performance under pressure drops off drastically across the board. When handicapping a matchup where a high-pressure defense faces a slow-processing quarterback or a backup tackle, you can anticipate drives stalling and forced turnovers.

Live bettors can also leverage pressure rates to back underdogs when the favorite has an offensive line that is getting overwhelmed.

Resource

Track updated pass rush and pressure metrics at Pro Football Focus (PFF).

Turnover Margin & Expected Turnovers

How It Works

Turnover margin tracks takeaways minus giveaways. Advanced turnover metrics take this a step further by evaluating fumble recovery rates (which historically revert to a 50/50 coin flip over time) and dropped interceptions to measure unearned luck.

Why It’s Important & Example

Turnovers are high-variance events that heavily influence final scores but rarely carry over consistently week-to-week. If a team wins by 3 points despite being +4 in turnover differential, they actually played poorly on a down-by-down basis.

Because sportsbooks and public bettors often overreact to final scores, teams coming off unsustainably high turnover luck make prime fade candidates the following week. In short, this is one of the best NFL stats for betting that you must consider.

Resource

Monitor turnover trend stats at TeamRankings NFL Turnover Stats.

Success Rate

Success Rate is a binary efficiency metric that defines an offensive play as a “success” if it gains 50% of necessary yards on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down. It measures drive sustainability and helps bettors identify consistent offenses that do not rely on flukey, long plays.

CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected)

CPOE evaluates quarterback accuracy by comparing actual completion percentage against expected completion rates based on receiver target distance, sideline proximity, pass-rusher separation, and coverage tightness. It helps bettors separate elite, precise passers from QBs who simply throw to wide-open targets in easy schemes.

Explosive Play Rate

Defined as runs of 10+ yards and passes of 20+ yards, this metric highlights a team’s quick-strike potential. Teams with high explosive play rates can cover big spreads quickly and serve as dangerous live-betting options when trailing.

Red Zone Efficiency (Touchdown %)

This tracks how often a team scores a touchdown, rather than settling for a field goal, once reaching the opponent’s 20-yard line. Comparing a top-tier Red Zone offense against a vulnerable Red Zone defense is one of the best ways to handicap game totals (Over/Under) and team props.