Thursday Night Football Week 10 Preview: Commanders vs. Giants Predictions & Best Bets

Washington Commanders vs. New York Giants Betting Odds

The Washington Commanders (+110) are slight underdogs against the New York Giants (-130), with New York favored by 2 points in this NFC East matchup. Washington’s +110 moneyline implies a 47.6% chance of winning outright, while the Giants’ -130 price translates to a 56.5% implied probability.

Oddsmakers are expecting a closely contested divisional battle, with the Giants receiving a narrow home-field advantage. The short 2-point spread suggests there is very little separating these teams, making this an intriguing matchup for bettors. The total is set at 41 points, with a defensive performance potentially playing an important role in determining the outcome.

Washington has an opportunity to pull off the road upset, while New York will look to capitalize on its home-field advantage and secure a divisional victory. Can the Giants cover the short spread, or will the Commanders deliver a small upset?

• The New York Giants are 6-2 (ATS) against the spread in their previous eight games.
• The New York Giants are 3-1-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous four games as a betting favorite.
• The New York Giants are 6-3-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous nine matchups versus the NFC East.
• The Washington Commanders are 4-1-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous five matchups versus the New York Giants.
• The Washington Commanders are 5-6-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous 11 matchups on the road.
• The Washington Commanders are 8-11-0 (ATS) against the spread in their previous 19 matchups versus the NFC.
• The OVER is 5-3 in the New York Giants’ previous eight matchups overall.
• The UNDER is 5-4-1 in the previous 10 matchups between the Washington Commanders and New York Giants.

Winning Margin: New York Giants by 1 to 6 Points (+320)

I like the Giants to win this game, but Washington has been more competitive recently, making a narrow New York victory a better betting angle than expecting a blowout. The Commanders are coming off a 20-13 loss to the Rams, but they previously defeated the Eagles 27-10 two games back.

In other words, Washington has shown it can compete when Daniels is under center. However, the defensive edge for the Giants should be the difference in a hard-fought game.

Washington’s offensive line problems are another major concern heading into this matchup. The Commanders have struggled to keep Daniels protected, and those issues were exposed again in their 20-13 loss to the Rams.

Washington surrendered four sacks, with Daniels taken down three times in the fourth quarter alone. Overall, the Commanders have conceded 2.8 sacks per game, enough for 18th in the NFL.

Starting center Lucas Patrick also left the game with a suspected concussion, creating further uncertainty along an already unsettled offensive line. WR Terry McLaurin’s absence adds another challenge for an offense that needs to find ways to move the football.

I expect New York to generate pressure and force Daniels into some difficult situations, which could ultimately make the difference in what should be a close game.

Total Touchdowns: Under 4.5 (-135)

• • Over 4.5 (+105)
  • Under 4.5 (-135)

I’m taking the Under 4.5 total touchdowns, as I expect this Thursday Night Football matchup to be more of a defensive battle. With the game total set at 41 points, the expectation is for a relatively low-scoring contest, and four touchdowns or fewer will be enough to cash this prop.

I expect the Commanders’ offensive line woes to continue, especially with the injuries continuing to pile up. Harbaugh has the defense in attack mode, and it isn’t going to slow down against the Commanders in a key clash at home. Having said that, the Giants’ offensive line hasn’t been too hot.

The Giants have given up 3.4 sacks per game, so I can see McCarthy coming under pressure at times. He should still have a productive effort against the Commanders secondary, though a couple of big sacks should tilt the field during drives.

Note that the Giants are 17th in touchdowns per game, while the Commanders rank further back in 21st. In a big divisional showdown, the defenses should prevail in a physical contest, so Under 4.5 touchdowns is one of the best Week 10 TNF prop bets.

Anytime Touchdown: Cam Skattebo (NYG) (+125)

RB Cam Skattebo is my favorite anytime touchdown target for the Giants against Washington. The second-year running back is expected to return from a hamstring injury after missing Sunday’s victory over Philadelphia, and head coach John Harbaugh indicated that he should be a full go for Thursday night.

That is an encouraging development, particularly with Skattebo having already established himself as New York’s leading running back.

Skattebo leads the Giants with 418 rushing yards on 98 carries, averaging 4.3 yards per attempt. He also delivered his best performance of the season in Week 7, rushing for 124 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries against Houston. His ability to break tackles and generate yards after contact makes him an excellent option around the goal line.

Skattebo breaks through tackles and finds the end zone for the lead in Houston

NYGvsHOU on FOX/FOX One
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— NFL (@NFL) October 25, 2026

There is also an opportunity for Skattebo to receive a significant workload. RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. is on injured reserve, while RB Devin Singletary managed just 31 rushing yards on 21 carries against Philadelphia. Skattebo should reclaim his place as New York’s primary rushing option, giving him a strong opportunity to find the end zone.

Although he didn’t score against Washington in their first meeting, Skattebo received 13 carries and finished with 59 rushing yards. With the Giants playing at home and expected to lean on their ground game, I like his chances of getting across the goal line. At +125, Skattebo is a strong anytime touchdown pick.

Total Passing Yards: J.J. McCarthy (NYG) Over 207.5 (-117)

• • Over 207.5 (-117)
  • Under 207.5 (-113)

McCarthy is a strong player prop target against Washington, and I like him to clear 207.5 passing yards on Thursday night. The Commanders have struggled against opposing quarterbacks, allowing 240 passing yards per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. Their secondary has been vulnerable throughout the season, giving McCarthy a favorable opportunity to produce through the air.

McCarthy threw for 243 yards against New Orleans and 252 against Houston in two of his last three starts. While he managed just 127 passing yards against Philadelphia, the Commanders offer a solid chance to pass for decent yardage.

J.J. McCarthy fires it into the end zone for the touchdown!

Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/8YFKbq32K6 pic.twitter.com/TtPXHnOE7t

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) October 18, 2026

Washington’s secondary should provide a more favorable matchup, and I expect the Giants to find opportunities through the air. Washington should be competitive enough to keep New York throwing throughout the game rather than allowing the Giants to simply run out the clock with a comfortable lead.

McCarthy has shown he can produce 240-plus passing yards, and I think getting to approximately 225 yards is a realistic target against this secondary. I suggest McCarthy Over 207.5 passing yards for one of the best Thursday Night Football player props tonight.

Total Receiving Yards: Chig Okonkwo (WSH) Over 34.5 (-113)

• • Over 34.5 (-113)
  • Under 34.5 (-117)

The Commanders’ tight end has been a reliable target in the passing game, averaging 39.8 receiving yards per game this season. He has also topped this number in three of his last four outings, with consistent results for Chig Okonkwo this season.

OH MY CHIG OKONKWO 🗣️

PHIvsWAS on NBC/Peacock
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— NFL (@NFL) November 2, 2026

Okonkwo has recorded 69 receiving yards against San Francisco, 60 against the Giants, and 57 against the Rams in his last four games. His previous performance against New York is particularly encouraging, as he managed 60 yards in the teams’ 27-27 overtime tie.

Washington is also dealing with significant injuries at wide receiver, leaving Daniels with fewer established options in the passing game. Four injured wide receivers were unavailable against the Rams, potentially creating additional opportunities for Okonkwo to receive targets, especially over the middle of the field.

Over 34.5 yards looks attainable for Okonkwo, so consider him for your Week 10 TNF prop bets card.