On Friday, November 24, the PFL will be holding their annual World Championship event live from The Anthem in Washington D.C. The 2023 PFL World Championship currently has 12 fights scheduled, with nearly half of the bouts deciding tournament championships in their respective divisions.
Let’s take a closer look at the PFL World Championship odds, courtesy of the best MMA betting sites, and make our 2023 PFL World Championship predictions for the entire lineup.
2023 PFL World Championship Predictions
The following PFL World Championship odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
Jesse Stirn (-220) vs. Josh Blyden (+180)
The action kicks off with a featherweight bout between Jesse Stirn and Josh Blyden. Stirn (-220) is the favorite heading into this fight. Both fighters are 4-1 in their last five fights.
Stirn (15-6) has nearly twice as many fights in his professional career as Blyden (9-2), so he should have the experience advantage. However, Blyden is the slightly larger fighter and will have a three-inch reach advantage.
These fighters both favor the ground game and have combined for 11 submission wins in their careers. Stirn has been submitted four times, though, and Blyden is 5-0 in fights decided by submission. I believe Blyden can use his size advantage to get the edge over Stirn and pull off the upset this Friday.
Khai Wu (+200) vs. Phil Caracappa (-260)
Next up is a bantamweight fight that pits Khai Wu (+200) vs. Phil Caracappa (-260). Wu (7-4) is a slight underdog against Caracappa (9-3. 1 NC), according to the oddsmakers. However, Caracappa has lost three of his last five heading into this fight.
Wu is 3-2 in that same stretch, but he is only 1-2 in his last three appearances. He has also struggled with dropping down to 135 pounds, and the weight cut could be a big distraction heading into this fight. Both fighters are making their PFL debuts, too.
Neither of these athletes have a high finishing rate, which is not surprising given the weight class. A longer fight should favor Caracappa, who is 7-1 in bouts decided by the judges. I believe he will pick up another win via decision this week against Wu.
Bubba Jenkins (-150) vs. Chris Wade (+120)
Another exciting bout scheduled for the 2023 PFL World Championship prelims is the featherweight contest between Bubba Jenkins and Chris Wade. Top sports betting sites have Jenkins (-150) as a slight favorite for this fight.
Jenkins (21-7) and Wade (23-10) are both veterans of the sport. They are also both coming off of losses in playoff matchups in August. Jenkins lost to Jesus Pinedo, and Wade was defeated by Gabriel Alves Braga.
Part of Wade’s recent struggles also include a loss to Jenkins in April by decision. However, Wade won their first matchup in 2021, also by decision. I believe Wade’s misfortune will continue and Jenkins will take home the win in the rubber match.
Biaggio Ali Walsh (-700) vs. Joel Lopez (+500)
The co-main event of the prelims for this PFL World Championship card is a lightweight fight between Biaggio Ali Walsh (-700) and Joel Lopez (+500). Ali Walsh (5-1) is undefeated since moving down from welterweight to lightweight.
Lopez (3-0) is also undefeated at 155 pounds and has finished all three of his opponents so far in his career. This will be his first time competing in the PFL, though.
Ali Walsh has also never been to a decision and has finished five straight opponents within the first two rounds. He has favored his striking, though, while Lopez has earned two of his three wins via submission.
Lopez’s submission skills will be the difference maker in this fight. Ali Walsh’s only loss is by submission. I believe Lopez is a good bet to pull off the upset, given the current PFL World Championship odds.
Gabriel Braga (-130) vs. Jesus Pinedo (+100)
The final fight of the prelims for this stacked card is a featherweight bout between Jesus Pinedo (+100) and Gabriel Braga (-130). This matchup is the championship round of the 2023 featherweight tournament.
Braga (12-0) is only a slight favorite, despite being undefeated. Pinedo (22-6-1) has more than twice as many professional fights as Braga. He also has 13 KO wins in his career, compared to just five for Braga.
Pinedo is also 4-0 in fights decided by submission, so he should have the advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He is just 5-4 in fights decided by submission, though, and Braga is a perfect 7-0. Assuming Braga can drag the fight into the latter rounds, he should be able to out-point Pinedo and secure his 13th career win.
Ray Cooper III (-245) vs. Derek Brunson (+195)
The first fight on the 2023 PFL World Championship main card is a middleweight bout between Ray Cooper III (25-8-1) and Derek Brunson (23-9). Cooper III (-245) is a moderate favorite heading into this fight.
Brunson has lost back-to-back fights heading into this contest. However, he will have a significant size advantage over Cooper III. Brunson is 6’1” with a 77” reach, compared to Cooper III, who is just 5’7” with a 70” reach.
Cooper III has not let his smaller stature stop him from succeeding in MMA. He has earned 23 of his 25 career wins by either submission or KO. The veteran has also finished 16 opponents in the first round.
This is Brunson’s first fight since leaving the UFC last month. He could not hang with the top of the division in the UFC anymore, but I believe he still has some gas left in the tank. It will be a tough test, but Brunson should pick up the win in his PFL debut.
Kayla Harrison (-750) vs. Aspen Ladd (+550)
Kayla Harrison (-750) is the biggest favorite of the night, according to the latest PFL Championship odds. She is scheduled to take on Aspen Ladd (+550) at a catchweight of 150 pounds.
This will be Harrison’s (15-1) first official bout since losing to Larissa Pacheco last November. Harrison was scheduled to fight Julia Budd, but Budd withdrew.
Ladd (11-4) is 2-1 in her PFL career so far, including a win over Julia Budd. Harrison will be the biggest test of Ladd’s career by far. Not only has Harrison been the more dominant fighter, but she will also have the size advantage.
I believe that Ladd will give Harrison a challenge, but she will fall short. Harrison is used to fighting at 155 pounds, so moving down to the 150-pound catchweight should not be an issue. She has also had plenty of time to prepare for her return match and should be fully rested.
Josh Silveira (+130) vs. Impa Kasanganay (-160)
The next fight on the main card is the light heavyweight tournament championship between Josh Silveira (+130) and Impa Kasanganay (-160). Kasanganay (14-3) is riding a five-fight winning streak heading into Friday’s event.
Four of those five wins have come in the PFL as Kasanganay is undefeated in the promotion. He has also finished four of his last five opponents within the first two rounds.
Silveira (12-1) has won three fights in a row, finishing all of his opponents during that stretch in the first round. The only defeat of his career was a decision loss to Omari Akhmedov during the 2022 PLF playoffs.
I believe that Silveira will be the one to prevail in this light heavyweight showdown. He has nine first-round finishes in his career and has the power to put this one away quickly. It should be an exciting fight, but I think Silveira will pull off the upset and leave as the light heavyweight tournament champion.
Sadibou Sy (+113) vs. Magomed Magomedkerimov (-143)
Another championship finale between two fighters on extended winning streaks is the welterweight fight between Sadibou Sy and Magomed Magomedkerimov. Sy (+113) is a slight underdog heading into this fight, according to the top PFL World Championship betting sites.
Magomedkerimov (-143) is 33-6 in his career and has won his last five fights. He has 16 first-round finishes in his career and 22 finishes overall. Nine of his 11 wins via decision have been unanimous decisions.
Sy (16-6-2), on the other hand, only has eight finishes in his career, all of which are knockouts.
Magomedkerimov was victorious when these two squared off in August 2021. I believe he will get the win again this time around, extending his fight streak to six straight wins.
Larissa Pacheco (-650) vs. Marina Mokhnatkina (+475)
The women’s featherweight tournament championship match will be between Larissa Pacheco (-650) and Marina Mokhnatkina (+475). Pacheco (22-4) is looking for her 10th straight win.
Mokhnatkina has won five straight and has been extremely active in the last 18 months. She has finishes in seven of her 11 career wins, including five first-round submissions. Pacheco has 19 total finishes, including eight submissions.
Mokhnatkina’s best skill is her grappling, but she will not have the advantage against Pacheco. She will also be at a disadvantage on the feet, as Pacheco has 11 KO wins in her career. I think that Pacheco is simply too good for Mokhnatkina to overcome, and I would stick with the favorite in this one.
Den Goltsov (-240) vs. Renan Ferreira (+190)
The co-main event for the 2023 PFL World Championships is the heavyweight tournament finale between Den Goltsov (-240) and Renan Ferreira (+190). Goltsov (32-7) has won five fights in a row and is favored to pick up another win this week.
Despite being in the championship round, Ferreira (11-3, 3 NC) has struggled as of late. Two of his last five fights have been ruled a no-contest. He is just 2-1 in his three other fights during that stretch.
Unfortunately for Ferreira, I think his struggles will continue this week. He has earned first-round KOs in his last two fights, but Goltsov is on a different level. Goltsov has 17 first-round finishes in his career, so if anyone gets the earlier finish, it will likely be him.
Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-255) vs. Clay Collard (+205)
The main event for the 2023 PFL World Championships card is the lightweight tournament finale. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-255) will take on Clay Collard (+205) in the championship round.
Aubin-Mercier (20-5) ended his UFC tenure with three straight losses. He has since gone 9-0 in the PFL and is looking for his second straight tournament championship. Aubin-Mercier has four KOs and eight submission wins in his professional career.
Collard (24-10, 1 NC) has won three fights in a row and has only been stopped four times in 35 career fights. He has a striking background and has earned 11 KO victories in his career.
Aubin-Mercier will be at a slight size disadvantage, but that should not stop him from getting the victory. Assuming he can get Collard to the ground, Aubin-Mercier should be able to get his first submission win in the PFL. Collard is just 3-3 in fights decided by submission.
