UFC Freedom 250 Betting Preview – Can Gaethje Beat Topuria at the White House?

• Ilia Topuria (-600)
• Justin Gaethje (+435)

Topuria (17-0) has evolved from a submission guru to one of the most talented MMA boxers on the planet. He has knocked former champions Alexander Volkanovski, Max Holloway, and Charles Oliveira in his last three fights, taking the featherweight and lightweight belts in two of those matches.

But Topuria doesn’t just swing for the fences. His movement and defense allows him to avoid the big shot, which is what Gaethje will be going for.

Gaethje (27-5) has throttled back his style in recent years as he is more calculated than the slugger that he was. He has four wins in his last five fights, losing only to Holloway in the last second when he decided to throw down until someone goes down. Still, “The Highlight” showed he retains power as he bloodied Paddy Pimblett to win the interim lightweight belt for the second time. Will it be enough against Topuria?

“El Matador” has had some life issues to deal with, which is the only thing I can see stopping him in this match. His power has carried over to 155 pounds, and he made light work of two legends in Volkanovski and Holloway. Gaethje has a puncher’s chance, but I believe Topuria can avoid Gaethje’s biggest shots.

That said, I wouldn’t bet on Topuria’s UFC Freedom 250 odds of -600. Instead, I’ll take the champ by KO/TKO/DQ at Topuria vs. Gaethje odds of -200 for my prediction to retain the lightweight belt.

• Alex Pereira (-107)
• Ciryl Gane (-110)

This matchup for the interim heavyweight title features the closest UFC Freedom 250 odds on the card! Pereira (13-3) is aiming to become the first three-division champion in UFC history after winning the middleweight and light-heavyweight (twice) belts.

He also won plenty as a kickboxer, which is the main style of fighting for “Poatan”. We know Pereira is one of the most dangerous strikers in UFC history, and he has excellent takedown defense with a 79% success rate. But how will he fare at heavyweight?

Pereira is aiming to fight at 240 pounds, and says he already got up to 265 pounds, which is the heavyweight limit. Will he be looking for the knockout blow before conditioning becomes a factor?

Gane (13-2) fights at around 250 pounds, and has been a heavyweight for his entire career. His match with champion Tom Aspinall was ruled a no-contest after Gane stuck his fingers in both of Aspinall’s eyes, and the champ required surgery.

Gane has only lost to Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou, and he avoided the big shots that the latter is known for. He probably won’t have to worry about takedowns as he did with Jones. Gane is a Muay Thai fighter who is more than willing to stand with Pereira.

The UFC Freedom 250 odds suggest this is a coin flip, which I agree with. Gane is more comfortable at this weight, but Pereira has a ton of power. I’m interested to see if Pereira comes out firing with leg kicks to slow Gane down. In a match that should be close, I’ll take Pereira to make history with a heavyweight title (albeit interim) win.

• Josh Hokit (-420)
• Derrick Lewis (+320)

Hokit (9-0) has a gimmick that people either hate or love. However, he showed a lot in his win over Curtis Blaydes in April 2026, standing up to a lot of huge shots and refusing to go down. He also hurt Blaydes with his return fire, especially early. “The Incredible Hok” has a wrestling background, but he doesn’t use it much. He may against Lewis.

Lewis (29-13, 1 NC) was requested by President Donald Trump for this card, as “The Black Beast” isn’t going for takedowns. He is loading up the right hand and looking to end the fight immediately. Not only that, but he has more power than Blaydes, which is why Hokit could choose to use his wrestling.

That said, I’m a bit concerned about Lewis’ chin after a long career worth of wars. He is 4-6 in his last ten fights, and four of those losses have come by TKO (with one by submission).

I don’t think this fight is going the distance, and if it does, that favors Hokit. I’m going for the big swing in my UFC Freedom 250 best bets and taking Lewis by KO/TKO/DQ at +400. I think Lewis has to be careful early and get Hokit’s timing down. But the Blaydes fight showed that Hokit can be hit, and Lewis hits way harder than Blaydes.