Tour de France 2025 Odds: Pogacar vs. Vingegaard?

Padej Pogacar – Pogi Retains French Glory?

• • Age: 26
  • Team: UAE Team Emirates XRG
  • Tour de France Titles: 3 (2020, 2021, 2024)
  • 2025 Individual Ranking: 1st

After winning the Giro d’Italia for the first time in his career a year ago, Pogacar decided to pass and focus on the biggest Grand Tour of them all in France. Pogacar enters with over 10,000 points in the UCI road rankings to put him easily ahead of his competition.

The future Hall of Famer’s lead over Remco Evenepoel is roughly 4,000 points in 2025! Even though he didn’t ride in the Giro d’Italia, which very likely would have been a win, Pogacar has six wins and won nine stages in various competitions this year. Two of his wins were in tours, including the UAE Tour and the Critérium de Dauphine.

Pogacar entered the Critérium de Dauphine for a tune-up before the Tour de France and put on a clinic. He looked very much prepared in that race, and the top form has carried over to the Tour de France for Pogacar. Through 16 stages, the 26-year-old Slovenian won four and was a runner-up thrice.

Currently, Pogacar leads the Tour de France by a dominant 4:15 over Vingegaard after smashing the time record at Mont Ventoux. He’s in control, and this is even after crashing in Stage 11.

Pogacar took a spill with 5 km remaining to finish 35th. It’s his worst result in the race, but he remains out ahead of Vingegaard.

RECORD BREAKER ⏱️

Tadej Pogačar sets the fastest time up Mont Ventoux — the previous record was 55:51 👏 pic.twitter.com/8EtfWyk3sJ

— Cycling on TNT Sports (@cyclingontnt) July 22, 2025

That’s a testament to how strong a rider Pogacar is and how much better he is than the rest of the field. There aren’t any others who could have afforded to crash and still maintain a comfortable lead!

We are watching history unfold, and all the rest of the field can do is marvel at his pace.

Jonas Vingegaard – So Close, Yet So Far

• • Age: 28
  • Team: Team Visma
  • Tour de France Titles: 2 (2022, 2023)
  • 2025 Individual Ranking: 13th

With Pogacar comfortably ahead, is there any hope for Vingegaard? The 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner has a glimmer of light ahead of him, but he isn’t controlling his destiny. Regardless of what Vingegaard does at this point, he isn’t going to chase down Pogacar.

He won the race as recently as 2023, so Vingegaard hasn’t forgotten what it takes to win this event. However, he hasn’t given himself much room to complete a comeback with only five stages remaining in the race.

To add insult to injury, Vingegaard crashed into a cameraman who got too close after recently finishing a stage.

Jonas Vingegaard crashed after the finish line after colliding with a photographer 💥📸 pic.twitter.com/Cfs2lwVsvF

— Cycling on TNT Sports (@cyclingontnt) July 22, 2025

In March, Vingegaard exited Stage 5 of the Paris-Nice event with a concussion after a crash. The resilient 28-year-old ultimately finished the stage but wasn’t present the next day. Vingegaard has been trying to get back to form since then. Prior to the accident, he won the Volta ao Algarve in Portugal in February. That said, Pogacar didn’t enter the race, so the Dane had the clear advantage on a beatable field.

He also won Stage 3 and finished second in Stage 4 in Paris-Nice, so there was a lot to like before Vingegaard went for an unfortunate spill. However, he was unable to keep pace with Pogacar in their first meeting against him in a tour event this year in the Dauphiné.

Vingegaard recorded a handful of runner-up finishes behind Pogacar but never posed a threat. What is happening in the 2025 Tour de France is a repeat of those races. The Danish star is close, but not close enough. Even if Vingegaard goes all-out and into attack mode for five stages, Pogacar has the edge.

Although Vingegaard is close to full health now, I believe the effects of the head injury are still lingering. A three-week Grand Tour surely doesn’t help! Vingegaard is riding well, all things considered, but Pogacar is in a different world compared to his rivals right now.