Tour de France 2025 Odds: Pogacar vs. Vingegaard?

Padej Pogacar – Pogi Retains French Glory?

• • Age: 26
  • Team: UAE Team Emirates XRG
  • Tour de France Titles: 3 (2020, 2021, 2024)
  • 2025 Individual Ranking: 1st

After winning the Giro d’Italia for the first time in his career a year ago, Pogacar decided to pass and focus on the biggest Grand Tour of them all in France. Pogacar enters with over 10,000 points in the UCI road rankings to put him easily ahead of his competition.

The future Hall of Famer’s lead over Remco Evenepoel is roughly 4,000 points in 2025! Even though he didn’t ride in the Giro d’Italia, which very likely would have been a win, Pogacar has six wins and won nine stages in various competitions this year. Two of his wins were in tours, including the UAE Tour and the Critérium de Dauphine.

Pogacar entered the Critérium de Dauphine for a tune-up before the Tour de France and put on a clinic. He looks very much ready for July 5, and if Pogacar is in the same form, it could be another dominant effort from the Slovenian phenom.

Jonas Vingegaard was the only rider able to stay within a minute of Tadej Pogacar on Stage 7. #Dauphine pic.twitter.com/1kNfOjElLd

— NBC Sports Cycling (@NBCSCycling) June 14, 2025

Last year, Pogacar pulled off the double with a win in the Giro and Tour de France. Additionally, Pogacar won seven other races, including the seven-stage Volta Ciclista a Catalunya. His hot form has carried over into this year, and at peak form just in time for the Tour de France in July.

Pogacar is the clear rider to beat, and considering how well he is performing, I expected his odds to win the Tour de France 2025 to be much higher!

Jonas Vingegaard – So Close, Yet So Far

• • Age: 28
  • Team: Team Visma
  • Tour de France Titles: 2 (2022, 2023)
  • 2025 Individual Ranking: 13th

The Tour de France is shaping up to be a two-rider duel between Pogacar and Vingegaard, but how close can the Danish star make it? Vingegaard is a fantastic talent and already has two Tour de France titles on his resume.

He won the race as recently as 2023, so Vingegaard hasn’t forgotten what it takes to win this event. However, he took a spill in early March during 5 Stage of the Paris-Nice race and was forced to exit the race with a concussion.

The resilient 28-year-old ultimately finished the stage but wasn’t present the next day. Vingegaard has been trying to get back to form since then. Prior to the accident, he won the Volta ao Algarve in Portugal in February. That said, Pogacar didn’t enter the race, so the Dane had the clear advantage on a beatable field.

He also won Stage 3 and finished second in Stage 4 in Paris-Nice, so there was a lot to like before Vingegaard went for an unfortunate spill. However, he was unable to keep pace with Pogacar in their first meeting against him in a tour event this year in the Dauphiné.

🇩🇰Jonas Vingegaard ne peut plus suivre 🇸🇮@TamauPogi !

🇩🇰Jonas Vingegaard can't keep up with 🇸🇮@TamauPogi's pace! #Dauphiné pic.twitter.com/xQDUBafMNV

— Critérium du Dauphiné (@dauphine) June 13, 2025

Vingegaard recorded a handful of runner-up finishes behind Pogacar but never posed a threat. I’m afraid it’s likely going to be the same story in the Tour de France. He’s always going to be there, looming behind Pogacar, but will find it difficult to find the next gear to get past the unfazed Slovenian.

Although Vingegaard is close to full health now, I believe the effects of the head injury are still lingering. A three-week Grand Tour is unlikely to help his symptoms in a race that riders need every bit of mental and physical fortitude to win.