College Football Playoff 2025-26 First Round Preview: Odds & Best Bets

Alabama vs. Oklahoma Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Alabama Crimson Tide are slight road favorites on Friday night in Norman. As a one-point favorite, oddsmakers expect this game to go down to the wire. Although the Crimson Tide have the edge on the odds board, the true value appears to be on the other side.

On November 15, Oklahoma defeated Alabama in Tuscaloosa despite QB Ty Simpson’s best efforts. Simpson passed for 326 yards with a touchdown and an interception. He outplayed Sooners’ QB John Mateer, who had a pedestrian performance with 138 passing yards.

However, Oklahoma can afford for Mateer to be merely average. With their physical defense, the Sooners can win even when the offense is sputtering. Just look at the game that sealed their spot in the College Football Playoff! The Sooners wore down LSU in a 17-13 win to finish the regular season at 10-2.

Overall, Oklahoma allowed 14.9 points per game, seventh in the nation. Additionally, they held opponents to 284.7 yards per game, ranking in the top 10. They were especially difficult to run on, yielding 78.2 rushing yards per game, third in the FBS.

Oklahoma beat Alabama by turning the Tide into a one-dimensional offense in the regular-season meeting.

Postseason Defense 🔜 pic.twitter.com/zQmEZVdigQ

— Oklahoma Football (@OU_Football) December 6, 2025

Mateer doesn’t have to be spectacular for Oklahoma to win. Alabama’s secondary is tough to throw on, but if the signal caller can avoid turnovers, the Sooners can win a field-position battle at home.

Note that Alabama’s run defense isn’t all that impressive. The Tide have conceded 135 rushing yards per game, and Oklahoma can attack them heavily on the ground.

Mateer doesn’t need to be a savior in this matchup, and I don’t believe Oklahoma will play into Alabama’s strengths in the secondary. With home-field advantage, expect the Sooners to win a nail-biter.

Miami vs. Texas A&M Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Miami Hurricanes and Texas A&M Aggies meet on Saturday afternoon at Kyle Field in College Station. Texas A&M didn’t get the ending they were hoping for in the regular season but had a fantastic campaign, nonetheless.

The Texas Longhorns ousted the Aggies in their season-ending rivalry game, 27-17, to snap Texas A&M’s 11-game winning streak and perfect season.

Texas A&M was a game away from going 12-0 and a trip to the SEC Championship Game. I don’t want to take anything away from their season, though. They were ranked No. 3 in the nation prior to the loss and are one of the most well-balanced teams in the country.

Armed with QB Marcel Reed, Texas A&M’s offense was amongst the best. They are 16th in the FBS, averaging 452.7 yards per game, and 15th with 35.3 points. Reed passed for 2,932 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions on 61.8% passing. He is also a dangerous runner, with 466 yards and six touchdowns on the ground.

After Reed and Texas A&M’s offense were held in check against the Longhorns, expect a much sharper performance at home. Kyle Field is not an easy place to win for opponents, and I anticipate Miami’s QB Carson Beck to be off balance throughout the afternoon. Beck had a respectable season, with 3,072 yards, 25 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, but he wasn’t immune from a bad turnover.

Locked down the entire league 🔒

Cashius Howell is your 2025 @SEC Defensive Player of the Year 👍#GigEm pic.twitter.com/Vw5T6zLa53

— TexAgs (@TexAgs) December 10, 2025

The Aggies’ defense was on fire at home this season. They gave up only 287.7 yards per game at Kyle Field, behind one of the most dangerous pass rushes in the nation. With 3.6 sacks per game, Texas A&M led the nation in that department. DE Cashius Howell is one of the most feared pass rushers in the country, as he racked up 11.5 sacks this season.

Look for the pass rush to get home to bother Beck into making critical errors. So, the point spread looks like a couple of points too short in this one. Consider backing Texas A&M -3.5 for your best CFP first round betting picks!

Tulane vs. Ole Miss Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Ole Miss Rebels football program went through quite the roller coaster this season. They had one of their best seasons in school history but lost their head coach before the playoffs started. Lane Kiffin packed his bags and flew to Baton Rouge to accept the LSU Tigers’ head coaching job after beating Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

While many pundits might view this as a major negative, I believe the Ole Miss players can use it as motivation. Despite Kiffin’s exit, the DNA of this program remains in Oxford.

Expect Rebels’ QB Trinidad Chambliss to have a strong performance under center against the Green Wave. Chambliss had one of the most underrated seasons in college football at quarterback.

Tulane Hate Week ❌🌊

Flashback to this BEAUTIFUL ball from Trinidad Chambliss in his second start as a Rebel 🇹🇹
pic.twitter.com/7YBxaRhchy

— Sidelines – Ole Miss (@SSN_OleMiss) December 16, 2025

He passed for 3,016 yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions on 65.5% completions. The first-year starter was one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the nation.

Tulane needs turnovers to have a chance at the upset, but Chambliss doesn’t give the ball away. He’s a smart passer who works through his progressions and takes what the defense gives him.

Tulane’s pass defense was not regarded as a talented unit. It struggled in the AAC against much weaker offenses, allowing 255.2 passing yards per game, which ranked 118th in the country. Chambliss is going to put up monster numbers before Ole Miss lets off the gas pedal.

RB Kewan Lacy is capable of taking care of the rest on the ground. Lacy galloped for 1,279 yards and 20 touchdowns on five yards per carry. Tulane’s defense has to respect Chambliss’ arm, so Lacy should be tough to stop between the tackles. Tulane QB Jake Retzlaff won’t be able to keep pace, leading to a blowout in favor of Ole Miss.

Ole Miss should win by at least three touchdowns in a statement performance after Kiffin’s exit. Tulane might offer some resistance early on, but it still shouldn’t be very competitive. This is a blowout in the making, so lay the points for your first round CFP picks.

James Madison vs. Oregon Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick

The Oregon Ducks’ first-round odds in the CFP overwhelmingly point in their favor. They are a massive -2200 favorite on the moneyline and -22.5 points against the spread. That’s a lot of points to cover, but the Ducks look well prepared to send a message.

Oregon is among the top favorites to win the CFP Championship, and they should light up James Madison in the opener. They enter with an 11-1 record and are on a six-game winning streak since losing to Indiana on October 11. It was a tough loss for Oregon at home, but they were able to recover.

The Ducks are led by a potential top 5 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. Oregon QB Dante Moore is one of the most complete quarterbacks in college football. He recorded 2,733 yards, 24 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 72.5% passing. Moore can scramble and escape the pass rush, which should frustrate the Dukes.

Dante Moore with a PERFECT throw.

CBS | Paramount+ pic.twitter.com/sCfBb2kmnF

— CBS Sports College Football 🏈 (@CBSSportsCFB) November 8, 2025

James Madison had a fantastic year to qualify for the playoffs after a 12-1 season. They haven’t dropped a game since a 28-14 loss at Louisville on September 15. The Dukes also haven’t played a team this good since then. Oregon is a huge step up in class from what they’re used to in the Sun Belt.

James Madison was excellent defensively this season. Overall, the Dukes rank third in the FBS, allowing 255.9 yards per game. I’m concerned with their strength of schedule, however. Even Louisville isn’t much of a test, so it’s difficult to say how good they truly are. The Sun Belt is also one of the weakest conferences offensively.

Expect Moore to hit a couple of plays over the top to loosen up the defense in the box. RB Noah Whittington is in line for a big performance on the ground. Once Oregon takes the lead, the Dukes are in a tough spot against one of the best secondaries in college football. Oregon ranks second with 139.5 passing yards allowed per game.

James Madison will have to pass after falling behind, but that’s unlikely to go well at Autzen. The Ducks by 27 points is my projection, resulting in a play on Oregon -22.5 for my first round CFP predictions!