NFL Win Total Predictions for 2026: What Are the Best Under Over Wins Bets?

Arizona Cardinals Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 4.5 wins (+135)
  • Under 4.5 wins (-165)

The Cardinals cut Kyler Murray this offseason, allowing the 2019 first overall pick to sign with the Vikings. Rather than addressing quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft, Arizona selected Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love third overall.

Love is a great prospect, but he cannot win games on his own. The Cardinals’ other offensive weapons, including Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride, will be limited by the team’s poor QB play.

Arizona drafted Carson Beck in the third round, but the former Georgia and Miami QB is unlikely to start. Instead, the Cardinals are expected to start Jacoby Brissett, assuming they resolve his contract dispute.

"I've been told, as of now, Jacoby Brissett is QB1 despite him holding out for a new contract." @joshweinfuss on Arizona's QB situation

(via @ESPNNFL) #BirdGangpic.twitter.com/fz9F7T4oVg

— SleeperCardinals (@SleeperAZCards) May 6, 2026

Brissett racked up plenty of stats last year in relief of Murray, averaging 280.5 YPG to go with a 23-8 TD-INT ratio. Despite his stats, though, Brisset went 1-11 as the Cardinals’ starter last season.

The Cardinals play in one of, if not the, toughest divisions in the NFL. It would not be surprising if they went 0-6 in their divisional games this season. They also play the NFC East and the AFC West, two equally stacked divisions with teams that should dominate Arizona.

Arizona is rebuilding and expected to tank for the first overall pick in the loaded 2027 NFL Draft. With that in mind, I expect the Cardinals to do their best to win under 4.5 games this season to increase their odds of drafting a franchise QB next April.

Atlanta Falcons Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 7.5 wins (+100)
  • Under 7.5 wins (-130)

Another NFC team that made my list of the best NFL win totals futures for the 2026-27 season is Atlanta. Like the Cardinals, the Falcons made many changes this offseason.

The best NFL betting sites have Atlanta listed at over/under 7.5 wins. The franchise fired head coach Raheem Morris and replaced him with Kevin Stefanski. Stefanski was fired by the Browns, despite winning two Coach of the Year Awards and leading Cleveland to the playoffs twice.

Stefanski will not have Myles Garrett to wreck opposing offenses, but he will have much better talent on offense to work with.

B. Robinson 🤝 pic.twitter.com/zFqLOepzFm

— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) May 6, 2026

Atlanta’s QB options are the obvious problem. Michael Penix Jr. is working back from an ACL tear, and the team signed Tua Tagovailoa to a minimum deal after he was cut by the Dolphins. On the bright side, if anyone can design an offense to maximize Tua’s talents, it is Stefanski.

The Falcons are also loaded on offense, including the likes of Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. Atlanta should also benefit from a soft division. They missed the playoffs last year, but the Falcons were one of three teams in the NFC South to finish with an 8-9 record, so the potential is there.

Finding wins outside of their division will be tough. Atlanta faces the NFC North, the AFC North, the 49ers, the Commanders, and the Chiefs. However, if they can just split their divisional opponents, the Falcons will only need four non-division wins to cover the over on 7.5 wins.

There’s enough talent on the team for Stefanski to achieve that, so I’m backing the Falcons for the over in my NFL win total projections.

Buffalo Bills Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 10.5 wins (-130)
  • Under 10.5 wins (+100)

I went 4-1 in win total predictions last year, and Buffalo was one of my correct predictions. The Bills were listed at 11.5 and barely covered thanks to a Week 18 blowout over the New York Jets.

The Bills are listed at 10.5 wins ahead of the 2026-27 season. The over is the more likely outcome at -130, implying a 56.52% win probability. Buffalo has won 11 or more games every year since 2020.

One of the reasons Buffalo barely covered the win total last year was the surprising ascent of the New England Patriots. They also had unacceptable losses to the Falcons, Dolphins, and Texans.

And that's a wrap on the 2026 NFL Draft. 👏 pic.twitter.com/rJ5ZXLWXyc

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) April 25, 2026

After losing in the Divisional Round, Buffalo fired head coach Sean McDermott and promoted OC Joe Brady. Buffalo traded for WR DJ Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina.

The Bills also traded back multiple times in the 2026 Draft to accumulate as many picks as possible. They used their draft capital to address their defensive issues. Six of the Bills’ nine picks were used on defensive players.

Buffalo should sweep the Jets and the Dolphins, two teams expected to tank. Assuming they can at least split with the Pats, the Bills only need six out-of-division wins to cover their win total during their first season in their new stadium.

It’s very reasonable to assume they will do it, so I’m happy to take the over for my NFL win total predictions this season at -130.

Dallas Cowboys Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 9.5 wins (+100)
  • Under 9.5 wins (-130)

Dallas had one of the most productive offenses in the league last year. The Cowboys averaged 391.9 YPG (2nd), 266.3 passing YPG (2nd), and 27.7 PPG (7th).

However, a top 10 offense was not enough to make up for the Cowboys’ defensive issues. Dallas allowed 377 YPG, the third-most, and 30.1 PPG, the most in the league. Their porous defense led to Dallas ending with a 7-9-1 record in Brian Schottenheimer’s first season as head coach.

The Cowboys managed to keep WR George Pickens via the franchise tag. With Pickens and CeeDee Lamb on the field, QB Dak Prescott should once again put together an MVP-level season.

.@JFowlerESPN says that George Pickens gauged his trade market before signing the franchise tag:

"He's expecting to have another big year. Now that he signed the tender, he's good with the Cowboys. They should move forward… I'm not expecting a trade or new deal at this point." pic.twitter.com/dgyyEKfoKi

— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) May 4, 2026

Tagging Pickens also allowed the Cowboys to focus on defense in the draft. Dallas used their first three picks, including two in the first round, on defense. In total, five of the Cowboys’ seven picks were on the defensive side of the ball.

Dallas also bolstered the defense last season by trading for Quinnen Williams. If the Cowboys’ defense is just a top-20 unit, their offense will carry them to a winning record.

Schottenheimer’s offense works, but the defensive turnaround will be in the hands of new DC Christian Parker. Parker previously worked with the Packers (2019-2020), the Broncos (2021-2023), and the Eagles (2024-2025).

The potential for a solid season is there, so the Cowboys should be able to cover.

Miami Dolphins Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 4.5 wins (+130)
  • Under 4.5 wins (-160)

Few teams have committed to a rebuild like the 2026 Miami Dolphins. Miami cut Tua Tagovailoa, incurring a record $99.2 million dead cap hit. They also traded Jaylen Waddle to Denver and did not re-sign Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins drafted 13 players this April, including six defenders and two offensive linemen. Those picks should help Miami in the long term, but their 2026 season is likely already lost.

Miami signed Malik Willis to address their QB issues, but their only weapon on offense is RB De’Von Achane. As talented as the 2025 Pro Bowler is, Achane cannot carry this talent-depleted offense to many wins.

Sources: The Dolphins are releasing QB Tua Tagovailoa with a post–June 1 designation.

By cutting Tagovailoa, Miami will take on an NFL-record $99 million in dead money, split over two years, but new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan and HC Jeff Hafley now get a fresh start at the quarterback… pic.twitter.com/521FwOj0MR

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) March 9, 2026

The Dolphins also fired head coach Mike McDaniel, replacing their offensive HC with a defensive-minded coach in Jeff Hafley.

Hafley will have his work cut out for him in year one. The Dolphins will play seven playoff teams from last year, including the Bills and Patriots twice each. They face the Chiefs, the Bengals, and the Lions as part of their out-of-division schedule, too.

Miami should pick up a win or two against the Jets, but they could easily lose their other 15 games next season. With that in mind, I recommend hammering the under on 4.5 wins for the Dolphins this season.

New England Patriots Win Totals Odds and Predictions for 2026-27

• • Over 9.5 wins (-160)
  • Under 9.5 (+130)

The worst-kept secret of the early 2026 offseason was the A.J. Brown trade. After months of speculation, Brown finally joined the Pats on June 1st.

Brown will be a major part of the Pats’ offense. He averaged 1,258.5 yards per year in his four seasons in Philly. The last Patriots receiver to have over 1,200 yards in a season was Wes Welker in 2012 (1,348 yards).

Despite adding one of the best wide receivers in football, New England’s win total line did not move from 9.5 wins. This is because the Brown trade was already baked into the Pats’ total. On the bright side, now that Brown is wearing the nautical blue, you can more confidently bet on New England covering their win total.

Media day with A.J. 1️⃣ pic.twitter.com/LiryQtgJ9g

— New England Patriots (@Patriots) June 8, 2026

The Patriots are due to take a step back after their 14-win season from last year. They achieved that total against one of the weakest schedules this century. Also, only one team, the Brady Patriots in 2003 and 2004, has had back-to-back 14+ win seasons.

New England has the sixth-toughest schedule this year, but the addition of Brown should help them reach double-digit wins.

They should win their four division games against the Dolphins and the Jets. New England also has home games against the Raiders and the Vikings, which should be easy wins.

The Pats were undefeated on the road last season. If they win four non-division road games this year while sweeping the Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, and Vikings, they will be at 10 wins and cover the over for this bet. That’s a realistic NFL over under projection for this group, so I’m happy to back the Patriots.

Cleveland Browns Win Totals Odds and Predictions for 2026-27

• • Over 5.5 wins (-115)
  • Under 5.5 wins (-115)

Speaking of blockbuster trades, the Browns shocked the football world by trading Myles Garrett to the Super Bowl favorite, the LA Rams. The trade came after years of the Browns’ front office shooting down trade rumors involving their best player.

Even after losing arguably the best defensive player in their franchise’s history, the Browns are listed at over/under 5.5 wins for this season.

Cleveland has not won 6+ games since their 11-6 season in 2023. Even with one of the easiest schedules in the league, the Browns will have a tough time getting to six wins without Garrett wrecking opposing teams’ offenses.

#Browns HC Todd Monken remains undecided on who will be Cleveland's starting quarterback. While he previously said he hoped to name a QB1 by the start of training camp, Monken acknowledged that timeline may not be realistic.

"You would of hoped that but I like both of them, its… pic.twitter.com/7f5dqSed5k

— Ashly Holder (@AshNoelleTV) June 9, 2026

The Browns do not have a defined QB1, and are not expected to name one by the end of minicamp. They also have a new, unproven head coach in Todd Monken. Monken helped develop Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, but he has significantly less QB talent to work with in Cleveland.

Even assuming the Browns win two divisional games, which will be easier said than done, it is tough to find four non-division wins on Cleveland’s schedule.

Cleveland only won one game outside of the state of Ohio last year. Their non-divisional home schedule this year includes multiple playoff teams, such as Houston and Carolina. Also, their road schedule includes visits to Jacksonville and Tampa Bay to start the season.

With Garrett on their d-line, Cleveland would have had a shot at covering over 5.5 wins. However, with the reigning DPOY now in LA, it is better to take the under on the Browns’ win total this season.

Denver Broncos Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 9.5 wins (-130)
  • Under 9.5 wins (+100)

Denver’s Super Bowl hopes came crashing down last season when Bo Nix broke his ankle in the team’s Divisional Round win over the Bills. After winning 14 games a year ago, the Broncos are listed at over/under 9.5 wins for this season.

Repeating a 14-win season is unheard of in the NFL, but the Broncos only need to hit double digits to cover the 9.5-win total for this wager.

The Broncos had a top-five defense last year, ranking near the best in the league in multiple categories.

• • 2 total YPG allowed (2nd-fewest)
  • 1 rushing YPG allowed (2nd-fewest)
  • 3 PPG allowed (3rd-fewest)
  • 68 sacks (most)

Denver’s defense has all the pieces to be a top unit again this year. Unlike in years past, the Broncos also have the offense to win games.

.@D1__JW in the orange and blue 👀 pic.twitter.com/LjGz7i0ZvB

— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) June 4, 2026

Nix had 3,900+ passing yards and 25 passing TDs on 63.4% completion percentage last season without a true WR1. Denver addressed their receiver corps issue this offseason by trading for Jaylen Waddle.

Assuming Nix is healthy for Week 1 and Waddle slides into the role of WR1 in Sean Payton’s scheme, the Broncos will get at least 10 wins this season.

Detroit Lions Win Totals Odds and Prediction for 2026-27

• • Over 10.5 wins (-135)
  • Under 10.5 wins (+105)

Detroit has been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons this offseason. After a disappointing 9-8 finish last year, the Lions are listed at over/under 10.5 wins for the 2026-27 season.

The Lions play in the NFC North, arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Detroit learned that lesson the hard way, going 2-4 in their divisional games after being swept by the Packers and the Vikings.

Green Bay and Chicago promise to be tough contenders again this year, and Minnesota should be better with Kyler Murray under center.

Adding to Detroit’s concerns are two notable departures this offseason. RB David Montgomery is now in Houston, weakening what had been a major strength for the Lions. The team signed Isiah Pacheco to fill Monty’s role as the RB2, but the bulk of their RB production will need to come from Jahmyr Gibbs.

Detroit also released CB Terrion Arnold in late July after he was arrested on charges of kidnapping and armed robbery. Arnold had been the Lions’ best DB in an otherwise weak secondary.

The Lions were rumored to be interested in Brendan Sorsby if the troubled QB was available in the supplemental draft. Assuming the rumors are true, this could be a sign that the team is looking to move on from QB Jared Goff sooner rather than later.

A rough offseason and a tough 2026 schedule are reasons enough to take the under on Detroit at 10.5 wins.