In the wake of President Donald Trump and Elon Musk’s breakup, online bookies have released America Party prop bets for Musk’s new political aspirations! There are a variety of betting odds available on the future of the America Party, and we’ve identified value on the board.
In this article, I review the latest betting markets and make my America Party predictions on what comes next for Musk’s proposed political party.
America Party Betting Odds and Predictions Overview
| MARKET | FAVORITE/ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Musk to Formally Register Party in 2025? | Yes/No (-120) | Yes (-120) |
| Any GOP House or Senate Members to Join in 2025? | No (-2000) | No (-2000) |
| First to Join America Party? | Thomas Massie (+100) | Thomas Massie (+100) |
| To Field 25+ House Candidates in 2026 | No (-900) | No (-900) |
| To Win the 2028 Presidential Election | Yes (+10000) | No (no odds available) |
BetOnline currently offers a number of America Party prop bets, some which look very intriguing. Although Musk appears optimistic about his political party, the American Party has +10000 odds to win the 2028 Presidential Election!
In other words, there is just a 0.99% implied chance, according to the best political betting sites, for the America Party winning. Can Musk even get this party off the ground? At -120, it’s nearly 50/50 that the American Party is formally registered in 2025.
There isn’t any optimism in a member of the GOP House or Senate joining Musk. At -2000, oddsmakers give less than a 5% chance of this happening. When and if it does happen, Trump critic and US Representative Thomas Massie (+100) is the most likely to join Musk!
You can find up-to-date America Party odds at BetOnline by navigating to Sports > Politics > US Election.
American Party: What We Know?
Following a dramatic fallout with President Trump, Musk announced that he is forming the American Party on his social media platform X. On the Fourth of July, Musk released a poll asking the public if they want freedom from the two-party system.
By a factor of 2 to 1, you want a new political party and you shall have it!
When it comes to bankrupting our country with waste & graft, we live in a one-party system, not a democracy.
Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom. https://t.co/9K8AD04QQN
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 5, 2025
Much of this stems from Musk’s frustration with Trump’s spending and the “Big Beautiful Bill”. The Tesla CEO is adamant that the country must cut spending and not add more money to the national debt. The America Party seeks to offer the public an option that seeks to eliminate government waste in Washington and largely targets centrist voters.
In the White House, Musk was responsible for auditing the federal government’s spending as the leader of DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency). Musk and Trump ultimately parted ways publicly in a well-documented sparring contest on social media.
But what will happen next, and most importantly, are there good betting opportunities around the America Party? Let’s go through my two favorite markets in more detail!
Musk to Formally Register America Party in 2025?
- Yes (-120)
- No (-120)
Musk hasn’t started the formal process of registering the America Party. The only piece of information we have at the moment is that he is interested in starting his political party. As I noted above, Musk opened the poll on X, and the majority of votes favor a new party.
That’s the only tangible action that has taken place thus far. Musk has run polls in the past and hasn’t followed through. Most notably, in 2022, 57% of respondents voted Musk out as the head of Twitter, but he didn’t leave his role. The 54-year-old South African-born entrepreneur, of course, remains the CEO of X.
Nevertheless, Musk is too far into his political aspirations to just let this one slide. He’s mentioned in the past that he was going to start a third party, so it isn’t completely out of left field. He most certainly has the money to pour into a political campaign.
"I will fight to my last drop of blood to ensure that America remains the land of freedom and opportunity."
一 Elon Musk pic.twitter.com/yQM7rjfyw5
— America Party Commentary (@AmericaPartyX) July 6, 2025
Musk is currently the richest person in the world with a net worth of $402.1 billion. If Musk wants to start a political party, he can most certainly do so and doesn’t need any donations. Even then, the process of registering a political party is not difficult. The Guns and Dope Party and the United States Pirate Party didn’t have any issues registering!
Pundits believe that Musk’s chances of disrupting the Republican and Democratic Party is a long shot, and I agree. However, this wager has nothing to do with the success of the America Party. The way I see it, Musk is too neck deep to back out now, so yes, the America Party will be registered in 2025!
First to Join the America Party?
POLITICIAN ODDS Thomas Massie +100 Rand Paul +300 Lisa Murkowski +500 Dean Phillips +600 Brian Fitzpatrick +1600
Thomas Massie is the favorite for the first politician to join Musk’s party. I don’t believe this comes as much of a surprise. Rand Paul as the second favorite isn’t too shocking, either. That said, oddsmakers got it right with Massie as the favorite.
In fact, he should probably have a shorter price than +100. Massie is in the driver’s seat to jump from the GOP to the America Party after criticizing Trump several times recently. The 54-year-old congressman for Kentucky’s 4th congressional district is largely on his own in the GOP against Trump.
He’s taking jabs at Trump when opportunities arise. For instance, two weeks ago, in response to JD Vance’s post, which read, “I wonder if other VPs had as much excitement as I do”, Massie responded, “Ask Mike Spence about his last month”.
Additionally, Massie stood up to Trump’s policy bill and was one of only two Republicans to vote no. In response, Musk said he promised that he’d help Massie’s re-election bid due to his vote against the bill. The billionaire has taken to Massie because both are staunchly opposed to government spending.
Massie also opened a poll on X, which, well, is very Musk-esque. He’s critical of the Trump administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files as well — something Musk has been vocal about.
Was Jeffrey Epstein an asset of a government intelligence agency?
— Thomas Massie (@RepThomasMassie) July 8, 2025
They seem like the perfect match, and while Paul is against Trump’s policies on spending and tariffs, he criticized Musk only a few weeks ago. Massie is one of the only politicians who has stood beside Musk, while the richest man in the world is throwing his support behind the US Representative.
So, Massie to be the first to join Musk at even odds is certainly one of the best America Party prop bets!
Where to Bet on the America Party’s Future?
Some of the America Party odds out there are too risky for my taste, but I really like the chances of Musk registering the party in 2025 and Massie joining it.
If you want to follow my predictions or have your own ideas, BetOnline is the place where you can find the America Party betting odds listed in this article.
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