2026 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

One Battle After Another (-375), Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest film, has dominated award season, winning for Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, and others. 2025 was a fantastic year for movies, but One Battle After Another is on a roll! OBAA has an implied probability of 80% to take home the Oscar.

That said, Sinners (+285) is a solid value option for its 2026 Oscar odds, although it might not last long. The Oscar odds for Sinners dropped quickly as it opened at +350. Within a couple of hours, it was down to +285, which is worth watching as the early money is coming in on Sinners. Hamnet (+1100) is also in the Best Picture mix, while Marty Supreme (+2200) has the best Oscar odds of the longshots.

Personally, I liked Sinners more, but it seems like it’s PTA’s year and it’s well-deserved. His films have been nominated for Best Picture four times now (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Licorice Pizza, and OBAA). One Battle After Another was my Oscar betting pick in November at -170, but there is a little value left in this spot!

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

Timothée Chalamet (-450) from Marty Supreme has his third Best Actor nomination (he was nominated for Call Me by Your Name and A Complete Unknown). He has made no secret of how badly he wants one. Chalamet has won the Critics Choice Award for Best Actor, as well as the Golden Globe for Best Actor – Musical or Comedy, so far.

Wagner Moura (+1100) was a surprise Best Actor – Drama winner at the Golden Globes for The Secret Agent, but he is still behind former Oscar winner (for The Revenant) Leonardo DiCaprio (+600) for One Battle After Another. It is DiCaprio’s seventh nomination, including six for Best Actor.

Moure also trails Michael B. Jordan (+1000) is up for his role of playing twins in Sinners, while Ethan Hawke (+1400) brings up the rear for Blue Moon.

The Academy does like being pandered to, and Chalalmet is doing so, while also receiving a massive push from everyone involved with Marty Supreme. I’d like to get some value further down the board in the 2026 Academy Award odds, but I think the third time is a charm for one of the New York Knicks’ biggest fans. There isn’t much value left, but it might be fun in a sports parlay bet on the same day.

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

Jessie Buckley (-3000) is an overwhelming favorite here for Best Actress with an incredible 96.8% implied probability. She has won the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama for her turn in Hamnet, as well as the Critics Choice Award. She was -500 back in November, so the 2026 Oscar betting value is all gone here.

It appears that the rest of the field is playing for second place: Rose Byrne (+900) in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson (+2000) in Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve (+2000) for Sentimental Value; and two-time Oscar winner Emma Stone (+2000) for Bugonia. Stone has been nominated five times since 2014, for either Best Supporting Actress (Birdman, The Favourite), or Best Actress (La La Land, Poor Things, Bugonia). She won for La La Land and Poor Things.

Byrne did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Musical or Comedy. However, the Academy tends to skew towards drama for their award, and Buckley should win handily. However, at -3000, I can’t recommend a wager on these Oscar odds.

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

Stellan Skarsgård (-160) is the favorite in the closest of the Top Six categories for these 2026 Oscar odds for his work in Sentimental Value. Two-time Oscar winner (for Mystic River and Milk) Sean Penn (+350) is up for the Supporting Actor Academy Award this time for One Battle After Another. He is joined by his OBAA castmate, Benicio del Toro (+400), who, for my money, wasn’t in the movie nearly enough. Del Toro won this award for Traffic, and this is his third nomination.

Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi (+800) and Sinners’ Delroy Lindo (+1800) bring up the rear in a very competitive category. I think the OBAA actors will split the votes, and I think it comes down to either Skarsgård or Lindo, two veteran actors who finally received Oscar nominations for the first time. Lindo wasn’t even nominated at the Golden Globes, which I think is a travesty.

But I’ll take Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård at -160 before the return drops any lower! I picked him at +200 back in November.

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor (-275) is the favored option here. But Weapons’ Amy Madigan (+250) has an excellent shot, and I think she was easily the best part of her movie. Sentimental Value’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (+900) has an outside chance.

Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku (+2000) and Sentimental Value’s Elle Fanning (+2800) are longshots. Only Madigan has been nominated for an Oscar before, for Twice in a Lifetime back in 1986!

I’m going to take my first big swing and go with Amy Madigan for the return in my Oscar betting predictions for 2026! She was absolutely brilliant in Weapons, with all due respect to Taylor, who won the Golden Globe for this category. Intending to try to find some value, let’s go with Amy Madigan at +250!

Best Director Odds and Prediction

The Oscar odds for 2026 are forecasting a big win for Paul Thomas Anderson (-2500) with an implied probability of 96.2%. One Battle After Another is his fourth Best Director nomination, which I listed in the Best Picture category. I’m hard-pressed to see anyone else winning here.

Ryan Coogler (+900) will put up a good fight for Sinners, which would roll through the Academy Awards in any other year that OBAA wasn’t nominated. Former Best Director winner (for Nomadland) Chloe Zhao (+1600) is up for Hamnet.

Josh Safdie (+2500) is up for his first Oscar nomination for Marty Supreme. Joachim Trier (+5000) has his third nomination for Sentimental Value, but it’s his first for Best Director. Trier was previously nominated for Best Screenplay for The Worst Person in the World, an award he is up for again this year.

I’m putting “PTA” in my 2026 Oscar betting predictions, but at -2500, it’s not worth the wager. It’s going to come down to Anderson and Coogler, and Anderson has all the momentum right now.