Early 2026 Academy Awards Odds: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

There are some strong contenders in the Oscars Best Picture odds. One Battle After Another (-170) has an implied probability of 63% to win the award, followed by Hamnet (+275) at 26.7%. Marty Supreme (+1000) was the early favorite at +220, but has dropped down the board as other movies have been released since March.

Sinners (+1200) is a very intriguing option, given the hype and reception it got. Sentimental Value (+1400) received the Grand Prix award at the Cannes Film Festival. However, it was eclipsed by the Palme d’Or winner, It Was Just an Accident (+2500).

I want to take the value of Sinners at +1200, and outside the top three, that would be my choice. However, I don’t know how the Academy feels about the vampire angle the film took. Those types of movies don’t generally win the Best Picture Oscar.

I’m going with the safe 2026 Oscar prediction of One Battle After Another at -170 because I think the promotional campaign leading up to the ceremony will be massive. Director Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Oscar in any category, and I think this is the year the Academy rewards him.

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

Timothée Chalamet (-150) was the early favorite in March for Marty Supreme at +180, and the value is quickly disappearing! Chalamet had an implied probability of 35.7% eight months ago. He is now at 60%. However, he has a formidable foe in Leonardo DiCaprio (+300) for One Battle After Another. DiCaprio has been nominated for five Best Actor Oscars, winning in 2016 for The Revenant.

Ethan Hawke (+900) has an outside shot for Blue Moon in a loaded category. Three-time Best Actor Daniel Day-Lewis (+2800) brings up the rear in the Oscars odds for Anemone, which says something.

I’m going to grab a little value and put Leonardo DiCaprio in my Oscars predictions at +300. I think it will be a big night for One Battle After Another, and DiCaprio will take home his second Best Actor award!

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

Jessie Buckley (-500) was originally on the board in March for two movies! She was priced at +450 for Hamnet, and +800 for The Bride. But she’s leading the way in the Best Actress Oscar odds for Hamnet with an implied win probability of 83.3%.

Renete Reinsve (+750) is next for Sentimental Value, while two-time Best Actress winner Emma Stone (+1000) could be up for Bugonia. 2012 Best Actress winner Jennifer Lawrence (+2800) brings up the rear in these Oscar betting odds for Die My Love.

Here, I am going to snag the value and put Emma Stone in my 2026 Oscars predictions. Stone is at the top of her game, and at +1000, the potential return alone is worth a wager.

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

There is a clear top three at the top of the Best Supporting Actor Oscar odds. Sean Penn (+100) is the favorite for One Battle After Another, followed by Stellan Skarsgard (+200) for Sentimental Value, and Paul Mescal (+500) for Hamnet.

The Oscar betting odds then drop to Adam Sandler (+1600) for Jay Kelly, Jacob Elordi (+1600) for Frankenstein, and Jeremy Strong (+1600) for Springsteen. Strong is an interesting option, as he was nominated last year for The Apprentice. Coincidentally, Strong lost to Kieran Culkin, his castmate on “Succession”.

I think Stellan Skarsgård will earn his first Academy Award nomination, and at +200, I’ll take his Best Supporting Actor Oscar odds. Sentimental Value should walk away with something, and I believe Skarsgård is the best bet.

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

Again, there is a clear group at the top of the board for the Best Supporting Actress Oscar odds. Ariana Grande (-125) is the favorite after she was up for Wicked in 2025, losing to Zoe Saldana for Emilia Perez. Grande should be nominated for the second part of the Wicked series, Wicked: For Good. Teyana Taylor (+235) is next for One Battle After Another, and Amy Madigan (+600) is third for Weapons.

There are plenty of big names also on the board here, like Elle Fanning (+2200) for Sentimental Value, and Jennifer Lopez (+2800) for Kiss of the Spider Woman. Emily Blunt (+3300) in The Smashing Machine, and Gwyneth Paltrow (+4000) for Marty Supreme could also get nominated. Glenn Close (+4000) has been nominated eight times for an Oscar, including four times in this category. Will she get nominated for Wake Up Dead Man?

The nominations aren’t out yet, of course. But if she is nominated, I’m taking a big swing with Glenn Close at +4000! Close is a Hollywood legend, and the Academy will give someone an award that they may not deserve (no disrespect to Close here), or it’s more of a lifetime achievement award. They’ve done it before. So, at +4000, why not take a shot here with Glenn Close?