Academy Awards 2027 Betting Preview: Favorites, Predictions, & Best Bets

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

I’m backing La bola negra to pull off an upset and win Best Picture at the 2027 Oscars. While The Odyssey is the clear betting favorite at -200, I believe the Spanish drama offers excellent value at +225, given its growing awards-season momentum.

Directed by Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi, the film has already established itself as a major contender, winning the Best Director prize at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.

It also captured the People’s Choice Award at the Toronto International Film Festival, demonstrating its appeal beyond critics and industry voters. Its ensemble cast, featuring Penélope Cruz and Glenn Close, adds further awards-season appeal.

The film’s ambitious emotional depth and historical themes give it the ingredients to resonate with Academy voters. It is also Spain’s official submission for Best International Feature Film, providing another potential route to recognition during Oscar season.

At +225, that’s a price I’m willing to take on a film with this much momentum and critical recognition for my best picture pick at the 2027 Oscars.

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

I’m backing John Malkovich to finally end his Oscar drought and take home the Best Actor award for Wild Horse Nine. At EVEN odds, he’s priced as a 50/50 proposition, which makes him a smart bet with his performance and the early awards-season momentum behind him.

Malkovich has already received two Academy Award nominations, for Places in the Heart (1985) and In the Line of Fire (1994) but has never won an Oscar. At 72, this could be his opportunity to finally receive the recognition his remarkable career deserves.

He’s also coming off a Best Actor victory at the Venice Film Festival, while his portrayal of an aging CIA agent wrestling with his past has generated considerable critical praise.

Martin McDonagh’s direction is another major positive. His previous film, The Banshees of Inisherin, earned nine Oscar nominations, showcasing his ability to deliver performances that resonate with Academy voters.

John Malkovich swears he isn't intimidating — it's just the characters he plays on-screen! pic.twitter.com/S2llquiVno

— Good Morning America (@GMA) November 5, 2026

Malkovich is ahead of Andrew Scott (+125) and Matt Damon (+275) in the betting market, and I believe he has a genuine opportunity to turn that momentum into his first competitive Oscar victory. This is a chance to back a deserving veteran at an attractive price.

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

Julianne Moore is my pick to win Best Actress at the 2027 Oscars for The Debut. The -400 odds are certainly expensive, but there’s a strong argument for Moore being the standout performer in this category.

She’s generating widespread critical acclaim for her portrayal of an overlooked housewife who discovers a passion for theater, with the role allowing her to showcase both her comedic timing and dramatic range.

"Everything's a little tricky" 🎶

Jesse Eisenberg sings along to The Debut and praises Julianne Moore's performance. pic.twitter.com/GhzAYsY5gy

— BAFTA (@BAFTA) November 4, 2026

Moore already has an Academy Award for Still Alice (2015), but this could be an opportunity to add a second Oscar to her collection. What’s particularly encouraging is the level of consensus behind her candidacy. Multiple awards-season experts have placed her at the top of their Best Actress predictions, with some describing her performance as one of the year’s best.

At -400, Moore carries an 80% implied probability of winning. Inde Navarrette (+225) is an interesting challenger, but I’m not convinced anyone has done enough to displace Moore as the clear frontrunner. She’s the safest prediction in this category.

Best Director Odds and Prediction

Christopher Nolan is my Best Director pick for The Odyssey, and I’m comfortable backing him at -225 odds. Nolan is already an Academy Award winner for Oppenheimer, but this could be an opportunity to secure another directing Oscar, an achievement accomplished by only three filmmakers in Academy history.

His ambitious adaptation of Homer’s epic has generated enormous awards-season expectations, and his ability to combine spectacular filmmaking with compelling storytelling makes him difficult to overlook.

What’s particularly encouraging is the consensus behind Nolan. He tops the rankings of every expert featured in the Los Angeles Times’ October Best Director predictions, while Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo’s La bola negra are his closest challengers. Denis Villeneuve (+300) is another serious contender, but I believe Nolan has a considerable advantage.

It’s not the biggest payout, but he’s the clear frontrunner and my strongest Oscar prediction in this category.

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

Paul Giamatti is my pick to win Best Supporting Actor for The Debut, and I really like the value at +150. He’s been one of Hollywood’s most consistently excellent character actors for decades, and this could finally be the opportunity to add a competitive Academy Award to his collection.

Giamatti came agonizingly close to winning Best Actor for The Holdovers in 2024 but lost to Cillian Murphy. He’s also previously been nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Cinderella Man, so he can certainly feel unfortunate not to have an Oscar already.

There's a method to the madness. The Debut, a show-stopping new comedy from writer-director Jesse Eisenberg starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, opens in theaters this Fall. pic.twitter.com/EOyq9cBd5Y

— A24 (@A24) June 23, 2026

In The Debut, Giamatti plays Jerry Blankenbuehler, a demanding, big-hearted community theater director who must contend with Julianne Moore’s increasingly committed housewife.

His performance reportedly combines tenacity, anguish and vulnerability, giving him plenty of opportunities to showcase his dramatic range and trademark intensity.

There’s already considerable awards-season support behind him. Giamatti ranks first in the Los Angeles Times’ October predictions and the November 5 Next Best Picture combined rankings. That’s encouraging consensus, particularly with Andrew Garfield and Sam Rockwell providing stiff competition.

At +150, I’m backing him to finally get his Oscar moment in 2027.

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

I’m looking at Penélope Cruz to win Best Supporting Actress for La bola negra at +225. Cruz is one of the most accomplished actresses in cinema, and I believe she has the talent and experience to make a serious run at another Academy Award.

Her supporting role as a cabaret performer in the Spanish drama gives her an opportunity to deliver a memorable performance in one of the most talked-about films of the awards season. The film is emerging as a major Oscar contender, with Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo attracting attention across several categories.

Penélope Cruz reflects on the character, the story, and the script that drew her to LA BOLA NEGRA.

Now playing in theaters. Get tickets: https://t.co/N8mFQX33Zz pic.twitter.com/zBANZWZBH4

— La Bola Negra Film (@LaBolaNegraFilm) November 3, 2026

Cruz also benefits from the Academy’s relaxed nomination rules, which allow an actress to receive multiple nominations in the same category. She is generating buzz for both La bola negra and The Invite, potentially strengthening her overall awards-season presence.

Anne Hathaway remains the favorite at -300, but Cruz offers considerably better value. At +225, she carries a 30.8% implied probability of winning. I’m backing the Spanish star to challenge the frontrunners and add another Oscar to her collection.