2026 Academy Awards Odds and Predictions: Who’s Winning an Oscar?

Best Picture Odds and Prediction

Sinners (+275) continues to close the gap on One Battle After Another (-350) after winning Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards). OBAA was priced at -725 on February 26, but Sinners, which was at +535, has cut into the lead. OBAA’s implied probability has dropped from 87.9% in February, to 80% on March 9, to 77.8% on March 13. It’s essentially a two-horse race now as a win for Hamnet (+2200) or Marty Supreme (+6000) would be a miracle!

Personally, I liked Sinners more, but it seems like it’s PTA’s year and it’s well-deserved. His films have been nominated for Best Picture four times now (There Will Be Blood, Phantom Thread, Licorice Pizza, and OBAA). One Battle After Another was my Oscar betting pick in November at -170.

That said, I’m sticking with OBAA as my Academy Award prediction as it has had a terrific run through award season. It has won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards, the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs and others.

I’ll recommend a wager at -350 now, but I still think that number is going to come down even more before March 15 as more bettors continue to back Sinners!

Best Actor Odds and Prediction

Here is where it gets very interesting in the 2026 Oscar odds. Timothée Chalamet (+185) has been a huge favorite throughout awards season, winning at the Critics Choice and Golden Globes. However, the Marty Supreme star didn’t win at the BAFTAs or the Actor Awards, losing to Sinners’ Michael B. Jordan (-165). Now, it’s Jordan who is on top of the board, and he is an even bigger favorite than he was at the beginning of Oscars week with an implied probability of 62.3%!

Chalamet was -325 to win on February 26, while Jordan was actually third in the Oscar betting lines at +625, behind OBAA’s Leonardo DiCaprio (+1200). DiCaprio is now tied with Golden Globe winner Wagner Moura (+1200) of The Secret Agent, and Blue Moon’s Ethan Hawke (+4500) brings up the rear.

The implied probabilities have Jordan at 62.3%, up from 55.6% on Monday, and Chalamet is at +35.1, down from 44.4%. If that’s the case, I’m willing to  go with Jordan. It’s going to come down to the final days (Oscar voting ended on March 9), and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Oscar Odds went back towards Chalamet a little. But at -165, let’s put Michael B. Jordan in our Oscar betting picks for 2026.

Best Actress Odds and Prediction

Jessie Buckley (-20000) already an overwhelming favorite here for Best Actress with an incredible 99.5% implied probability, which is actually down a touch from 99.6% at the start of Oscars week. She has won the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Drama for her turn in Hamnet, as well as the Critics Choice Award, the BAFTA, and now, the Actor Award. She was -500 back in November, -3000 on January 12, and -4000 on February 19. The 2026 Oscar betting value is long gone here at -2000.

It appears that the rest of the field is playing for second place: Rose Byrne (+3300) in If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You; Kate Hudson (+6600) in Song Sung Blue; Renate Reinsve (+16000) for Sentimental Value; and two-time Oscar winner Emma Stone (+8000) for Bugonia. Stone has been nominated five times since 2014, for either Best Supporting Actress (Birdman, The Favourite), or Best Actress (La La Land, Poor Things, Bugonia). She won for La La Land and Poor Things.

Byrne did win the Golden Globe for Best Actress – Musical or Comedy. However, the Academy tends to skew towards drama for their award, and Buckley should win handily. However, at -20000, I can’t recommend a wager on these Oscar odds.

Best Supporting Actor Odds and Prediction

Stellan Skarsgård (+365) was the favorite for these 2026 Oscar odds for his work in Sentimental Value for most of the .

But two-time Oscar winner (for Mystic River and Milk) Sean Penn (-325) is now favored for the Supporting Actor Academy Award for One Battle After Another after winning the BAFTA and the Actor Award. Penn is joined by his OBAA castmate, Benicio del Toro (+3300), who, for my money, wasn’t in the movie nearly enough. Del Toro won this award for Traffic, and this is his third nomination. Sinners’ Delroy Lindo (+700) has an outside shot. Frankenstein’s Jacob Elordi (+6000) has fallen back on the board also in a competitive category.

I’ll take Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård at +365 because the value is now there. The markets are overreacting based on other awards, but he should be much closer to something like +150.

Best Supporting Actress Odds and Prediction

One Battle After Another’s Teyana Taylor (+220) was the favored option here. But Weapons’ Amy Madigan (-140) has taken over the top spot after winning the Actor Award, and I think she was easily the best part of her movie. Sentimental Value’s Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (+1800) has an outside chance. Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku (+425) jumped up the board last week from +1400 three weeks ago after winning the BAFTA in this category.

Sentimental Value’s Elle Fanning (+7000) has the longest Oscar odds here. Only Madigan has been nominated for an Oscar before, for Twice in a Lifetime back in 1986!

I took a big swing with Amy Madigan a few weeks ago in my Oscar betting predictions for 2026! She was absolutely brilliant in Weapons, with all due respect to Taylor, who won the Golden Globe for this category. So was Mosaku in Sinners.

I was willing to stick with Madigan here at -110 last week, and I held steady on Monday with the Oscar odds at +100! I’m still confident in the Weapons‘ star at -140.

Best Director Odds and Prediction

The Oscar odds for 2026 are forecasting a big win for Paul Thomas Anderson (-4500) with an implied probability of 97.1%, which is up from 94.1% on March 9. One Battle After Another is his fourth Best Director nomination, which I listed in the Best Picture category. I’m hard-pressed to see anyone else winning here. Best Director and Best Picture usually goes to the same film around 70% of the time.

Ryan Coogler (+600) will put up a good fight for Sinners, which would roll through the Academy Awards in any other year that OBAA wasn’t nominated. The 2026 Academy Award odds were slowly creeping towards Coogler, but they’ve swung heavily back towards “PTA”. Former Best Director winner (for Nomadland) Chloe Zhao (+6000) is up for Hamnet.

Josh Safdie (+12000) is up for his first Oscar nomination for Marty Supreme. Joachim Trier (+20000) has his third nomination for Sentimental Value, but it’s his first for Best Director. Trier was previously nominated for Best Screenplay for The Worst Person in the World, an award he is up for again this year.

With all the hype and critical acclaim the movie’s received, PTA is the best 2026 Oscar betting prediction for this category, but at -4500, it’s not worth the wager.