The 2025-26 College Football Playoffs semifinals odds suggest that Miami and Indiana should progress to the season finale. Can the favorites win, or will Oregon and Ole Miss upset the CFP semifinals odds in a campaign that looks so hard to predict?
The semifinals are set for Thursday, January 9, and Friday, January 10, before the championship on Monday, January 19. Below, check out the latest matchup odds, analysis of each game, and my CFP semifinals predictions!
2025-26 CFP Semifinals Odds and Predictions (Overview)
Here are the latest CFP semifinals odds, courtesy of Lucky Rebel:
| MATCHUP | MONEYLINE ODDS | PREDICTION |
|---|---|---|
| Miami vs. Ole Miss | Miami (-180) Ole Miss (+155) | Ole Miss (+155) |
| Oregon vs. Indiana | Indiana (-185) Oregon (+160) | Oregon (+160) |
The top college football sportsbooks feature a variety of options for your CFP semifinals picks. Above, I provide a quick snapshot of my predictions to win outright and advance to the final four teams in the table.
If you are interested in my best bets against the spread for each game, continue reading below. You can find up-to-date CFP semifinals betting odds at Lucky Rebel by navigating to Sports > Football > College Football > Upcoming Events.
Miami vs. Ole Miss Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
TEAM
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TOTAL
Miami
-3.5 (-110)
-180
Over 52 (-110)
Ole Miss
+3.5 (-110)
+155
Under 52 (-110)
The Miami Hurricanes are favored to win their semifinal matchup against Ole Miss and advance to their first national title game since 2001. “The U” is back on the map and, at -180, Mario Cristobal’s team carries a 64.3% implied probability to beat the Rebels.
Miami enters this game off a 24-14 upset win over the Ohio State Buckeyes as nine-point underdogs. Ohio State were favorites to win the national title, but their hopes of repeating were crushed by a dominant Hurricanes defensive performance. If Miami is going to get past Ole Miss, it must find a way to contain Rebels’ QB Trinidad Chambliss.
Even with Miami’s defense playing at an elite level, Chambliss presents a difficult challenge. He’s elusive in the pocket and can escape pressure, a crucial trait against a ferocious Miami pass rush that is the strength of this team. The Hurricanes rank third in the FBS with 3.4 sacks per game.
Pure pocket passers with limited mobility, like Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, tend to struggle against Miami. Chambliss, however, should be able to extend plays with his legs. He has thrown for 3,660 yards, 21 touchdowns, and three interceptions while completing 66.4% of his passes. On the ground, he’s added 520 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.
Paired with RB Kewan Lacy, Chambliss leads an Ole Miss offense built to stress Miami’s defense. Lacy rushed for 1,464 yards at five yards per carry and scored 23 touchdowns this season. Overall, the Rebels rank second in the nation, averaging 488.8 yards per game in 2025-26. Their quick-strike offense can put points on the board in a hurry.
No QB in FBS history has finished a season with:
— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) January 2, 2026
3500+ passing yards
500+ rushing yards
no more than 5 INT
no more than 15 sacks taken
Trinidad Chambliss is currently doing that for @OleMissFB this season. pic.twitter.com/EWIdJKR3sn
Miami is built around a physical defense and relentless pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Hurricanes also have a balanced offense with former Georgia quarterback Carson Beck and running back Mark Fletcher Jr. in the backfield, but the offensive edge still leans toward Ole Miss. If the Rebels can crack Miami’s defense, they have a legitimate chance to pull the upset.
Chambliss is an ideal quarterback to attack this matchup. He and the rest of the Rebels are playing with confidence and an extra dose of motivation after Lane Kiffin left for LSU before the playoffs. As underdogs, Ole Miss is one of my favorite College Football Playoff semifinal betting picks.
Indiana vs. Oregon Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
TEAM
SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TOTAL
Indiana
-4 (-110)
+160
Over 46.5 (-110)
Oregon
+4 (-110)
-185
Under 46.5 (-110)
The incredible run for the Indiana Hoosiers will look to continue in the semifinals against the Oregon Ducks. The two Big Ten foes will meet in a rematch, with the stakes much higher this time around. Indiana went on the road to Autzen Stadium for a 30-20 shocker over the Ducks in October.
A lot has changed since then, with the Hoosiers’ status as a major contender now elevated. It was tough to convince people that Indiana was for real back then, but the win over Oregon and a subsequent perfect record, including the Big Ten Championship, has made people believe in Curt Cugnetti.
Indiana is a well-rounded team that has found success on both sides of the ball. QB Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy and then followed it up with a 38-3 blowout over the Alabama Crimson Tide in the quarterfinals. Mendoza has passed for 3,172 yards, 36 touchdowns, and six interceptions on 72.3% completions.
In their second look at Mendoza, I expect Oregon’s defense to be up to the challenge. The Ducks are ranked second in the nation, yielding an average of just 153.4 passing yards per game. I’m confident Oregon will be ready to throw everything they have at Mendoza. He’s been on fire, but the Ducks may slow him down just enough in the semifinals.
They held Texas Tech’s Behren Morton to 137 yards and two interceptions in their 23-0 victory. Mendoza will do more damage, but I expect Oregon to provide enough resistance to hang around in this game. There are arguments for Oregon QB Dante Moore being the better pro prospect.
There is no stopping Dante Moore 💪#CFBPlayoff x #GoDucks pic.twitter.com/0lS5LeJevM
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) January 1, 2026
Moore could have received an invite to New York for the Heisman Trophy ceremony. He has passed for 3,280 yards, 28 touchdowns, and nine interceptions on 72.9% completions. If there’s any weakness for Indiana to exploit, it’s their secondary, which ranks 21st in the FBS, allowing 189.7 yards per game through the air.
In a game I foresee going down to the wire, the value is on the Ducks to cover the points. It isn’t going to be easy to beat Oregon twice in one season. With extra time to prepare for the Hoosiers, expect the Ducks to be ready and to have an opportunity to secure the upset. Oregon +4 is one of my best College Football Playoff semifinal predictions!
What Are Your CFP Predictions for Round 3?
The College Football Playoff semifinals odds offer some solid value. Here, you can find a summary of my best CFP semifinals picks:
- Ole Miss +3.5 (-110)
- Oregon +4 (-110)
What are your selections? After locking in your bets, feel free to share them in the comments below. If you are searching for a top online betting site for CFP betting, check out Lucky Rebel to claim a 125% match bonus of up to $1,250 on your first deposit!
- Pride themselves on fast withdrawals
- Bigger bets and higher limits than other gambling sites
You must be logged in to comment. Don't have an account? Sign up today.