Kentucky Oaks 2024 Betting Odds And Predictions

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Betting Odds And Predictions

Before the pageantry and excitement of Derby Day, the 2024 Kentucky Oaks odds for the best three-year-old fillies are available at the top horse racing betting sites! The competition is an opportunity for the ladies to shine on the dirt at Churchill Downs.

The $1.5 million event covers 1 ⅛ miles (9 furlongs) on the dirt track in Louisville. Up to 14 fillies are eligible to enter the starting gates — with post time for the Kentucky Oaks scheduled at 5:51 p.m. ET. Below, check out the latest favorites, sleeper picks, and my best Kentucky Oaks predictions for May 3, 2024.

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Winner Odds

The following Kentucky Oaks 2024 betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

Just F Y I+450
Leslie’s Rose+450
Thorpedo Anna+600
Ways and Means+700
Power Squeeze+1000
Where’s My Ring+1200

Tarifa from favorable post 8 is the favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Oaks. At +325, the oddsmakers have determined an implied probability of 23.5% for the horse to win the “Lillies for the Fillies”.

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Just F Y I (+450) and Leslie’s Rose (+450) are currently the second-shortest favorites. Both fillies have an implied chance to win the Kentucky Oaks of 18.2%.

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Favorites

I explore the Kentucky Oaks’ top contenders and analyze each horse’s chances to win at Churchill Downs before sharing my Kentucky Oaks best bets.

Let’s delve straight into all the details for the main contenders.

Tarifa (+325)

Tarifa drew a favorable post position and possesses the talent to take full advantage in the Kentucky Oaks. Goldophin and Brad Cox must feel confident about their chances on May 3!

The three-year-old is a four-time winner across five starts. Tarifa is entering the Kentucky Oaks on a three-race winning streak, with a blemish-free resume in 20241.

Following a ¾ length win over Standoutsensation in a $60,000 allowance race on January 20, Cox set his eyes on graded events for Tarifa.

She didn’t disappoint in her Grade 2 debut, as Tarifa cleared favored Intricate by 2 ¾ lengths in the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra Stakes (Gr. 2) at Fair Grounds. Tarifa followed up with the best performance of her career in the Fair Grounds Oaks (Gr. 2).

On March 23, Tarifa outdueled Our Pretty Woman by ¾ lengths for a victory in the $400,000 event. It was a beautiful ride from Flavien Prat, who stalked and took over the lead in the stretch.

Most impressively, Tarifa’s speed figure improved from 89 to 99. Additionally, she was in good form with a quick 59.20-second, 5-furlong workout on April 26.

Tarifa is open to even more improvement for the Kentucky Oaks, so this is a serious player on Friday!

Just F Y I (+450)

William Mott’s Just F Y I has already stepped into Grade 1 territory. The George Krikorian bred and owned filly has participated in three Grade 1 events in just four starts2.

After debuting with a win at Saratoga in August 2023, Just F Y I took the leap from a maiden special weight to a Grade 1 event. She picked up a 3 ¾ length win over Central Avenue as a dark horse!

The promising effort allowed Just F Y I to make a start in a Breeders’ Cup event at Santa Anita Park. Again, as a sleeper, Just F Y I edged out Jody’s Pride by a neck for a win in the $1 million NetJets Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr. 2) in November.

In 2024, Just F Y I made only one start, with a 2nd place performance in the $600,000 Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) on April 5. Leslie’s Rose proved to be too much for Just F Y I, with a 3-length win in the Grade 1 event at Keeneland.

She hasn’t gotten much respect in her career, but the Kentucky Oaks 2024 odds suggest that Just F Y I is amongst the favorites. The filly achieved a time of 59.80 in her last workout, just .60 ticks behind Tarifa’s 5-furlong jaunt.

I expect Just F Y I to be involved at the wire, but she will need to overcome an outside post position to win.

Leslie’s Rose (+450)

Just F Y I and Leslie’s Rose are familiar with one another after they met in the Ashland Stakes (Gr. 1) earlier this month.

They’ll have time to get reacclimated in the starting gate, as Just F Y I and Leslie’s Rose will go off from the No. 13 and No. 14 post positions.

Leslie’s Rose will be forced to come from the No. 14 post to win the Kentucky Oaks. This is a fast horse, so I won’t put it past her; however, it’s a tough place to win from in the Oaks!

Swap her position with Tarifa’s from No. 8 to No. 14, and Todd Pletcher’s Leslie’s Rose could easily be the favorite to win. With four wins in five starts, she is coming off the best speed figure of her career in the Fair Grounds Oaks3.

Leslie’s Rose was clocked with a speed reading of 99! That eclipses Tarifa and Just F Y I’s best figures, so she has the speed to compete.

In her Grade 2 debut, she showed 3rd in the $200,000 Davona Dale Stakes (Gr. 2) in February. This was a mediocre performance, but she responded with a near-perfect trip in the win over Just F Y I.

The young filly could steal the victory here if she has a repeat run, but the luck of the draw did not work in Pletcher’s favor.

Top Sleepers For The Kentucky Oaks 2024

Consider including a few Kentucky Oaks dark horses for your horse racing betting strategy for this event. Some talented horses are getting favorable odds as long shots, so these ponies are worth backing for the Oaks in 2024:

  1. Fresh off a dominant 4 ¼ length win in the $200,000 Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 3), Where’s My Ring is quickly becoming a threat. After posting a career-best speed figure of 101 in the winning effort, it’s hard to write this filly off in the Oaks. In addition to positive results in races, her recent workouts have checked out well.

  2. Regulatory Risk may not be the fastest horse in the race, but she drew favorably. Chad Brown’s filly will start from the No. 4 post, which suits her well. In her latest assignment, Regulatory Risk posted a career-high speed figure of 95 in a 2nd place finish behind Where’s My Ring.

  3. Everland is a horse that has a chance to peak at the right time. With wins in three of her last four starts, the Eric Foster trainee is getting there. Everland is coming off a 1 ¼ length win in the $300,000 Bourbonette Oaks, with a strong speed figure of 100!

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Predictions And Best Bets

Leslie’s Rose was high on my shortlist before the post positions were released. She has everything working in her favor except that ugly draw in No. 15.

Pletcher will have to get Leslie’s Rose to go above and beyond to catch the front-runners in the stretch. The front will likely include Rachel Alexandra and Fair Grounds Oaks winner Tarifa.

As a result of those two huge wins, Tarifa leads all horses with 150 points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks. Where’s My Ring came in second with 125 points in the prep races4!

Kentucky Oaks 2024 Winner Bet

Tarifa has the more desirable trip from the No. 8 post. Additionally, she is riding a mountain of momentum into this race after winning one of the biggest prep races on the schedule.

I don’t foresee Tarifa clearing for a convincing win, but she should have enough kick in the stretch to edge ahead for a half-length or ¾ length win.

If Tarifa shows any type of improvement from her last effort, this should be her race to lose with her top rivals on the outside. The favorite should be tough to beat given her recent form, so I recommend a win bet for your Kentucky Oaks 2024 predictions at Churchill Downs.

The Bet

Best Exacta Bet For The Kentucky Oaks 2024

The Kentucky Oaks exacta bet consists of correctly selecting the order of the first two finishers. Similar to our Kentucky Derby predictions, I am playing my best exacta and trifecta bets for the Kentucky Oaks.

For these wagers, I generally like to aim for a large payout. That’s the appeal of hitting these tickets, so including a sleeper is a wise strategy. Having said that, Where’s My Ring is a less talked about horse that should be watched closely in the betting markets.

Her kick in the Gazelle Stakes (Gr. 3) in the stretch is being glossed over by most handicappers, but I was highly impressed by the effort to pull away. If she gets a clean trip at Churchill Downs, Where’s My Ring will be directly in the line of fire in the stretch.

Where’s My Ring drew incredibly favorably in the No. 3 post, so that certainly helps matters. Tarifa (8) and Where’s My Ring (3) are top plays for my best Kentucky Oaks exacta bet.

The Bet
(8), (3)

Best Trifecta Bet For The Kentucky Oaks 2024

I don’t dislike Leslie’s Rose form, but she didn’t have much luck in the draw. Despite this, Leslie’s Rose should generate a strong push in the stretch run.

While I think she comes up just a bit short in a busy stretch, it won’t be because Irad Ortiz Jr. and Leslie’s Rose had a poor trip. The horse will likely keep fighting down to the wire.

She should perform well enough to be in contention, so Leslie’s Rose is worth considering for your trifecta Kentucky Oaks 2024 predictions!

The Bet
(8), (3), (14)

Where To Bet On The Kentucky Oaks 2024?

The best online bookmakers will have everything professional and recreational handicappers need to wager on the 2024 Kentucky Oaks odds! 

The Sports Geek recommends placing your Kentucky Oaks bets at Bovada. As well as traditional parimutuel wagering in the Bovada racebook, fixed odds betting is available in the sportsbook!

Place bets on a variety of different Kentucky Oaks wagers, including your favorite horse to win, prop bets, and more before the gate swings opens on Friday, May 3, 2024!

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  1. Horse Profile for Tarifa | Retrieved From “

  2. Horse Profile for Just F Y I | Retrieved From “

  3. Horse Profile for Leslie’s Rose | Retrieved From “

  4. 2024 Road to the Kentucky Oaks Point Standings | Retrieved From “

About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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