NBA First Basket Predictions for Tonight, November 2: Best First Point Scorer Bets

Tyrese Maxey +650 (Bulls vs. 76ers)

Tyrese Maxey is one of our best NBA first-basket bets tonight at +650 odds against the Chicago Bulls. Philadelphia has a significant advantage at the opening tip, winning 71.4% of its jump balls compared with just 16.7% for Chicago. That gap gives the 76ers an excellent opportunity to secure the first possession and put Maxey in position to strike early.

Maxey is off to an outstanding start offensively, averaging 29.6 points per game while shooting 48.6% from the field through his first seven appearances in 2026-27. He’s also averaging 21.1 field-goal attempts per game, demonstrating how aggressively he’s attacking opposing defenses.

SEASON-HIGH 38 FOR TYRESE MAXEY.
SIXERS MOVE TO 6-1 ON THE SEASON.

38 PTS (15 in 4Q)
4 REB
4 AST
2 STL

Tonight marks the third time @TyreseMaxey has scored 15+ PTS in the 4Q of a game this season… no other player has done so more than once 😳 pic.twitter.com/OomsqPISfr

— NBA (@NBA) November 1, 2026

Maxey’s combination of speed, shot creation, and finishing ability makes him a dangerous first-basket candidate. He can blow past defenders off the dribble, attack the rim before the defense gets organized, or pull up for a jumper. With Philadelphia likely to have the first scoring opportunity, Maxey’s aggressive approach makes him an ideal target.

At +650, we’re backing Maxey’s outstanding scoring form and Philadelphia’s advantage at the opening tip to deliver excellent value. He’s our pick to put the first points on the board against Chicago.

Evan Mobley +450 (Thunder vs. Cavaliers)

The Cavaliers rate as one of the best first basket bets tonight, especially with Jarrett Allen providing an advantage at the opening tip. Allen is one of the NBA’s best jump-ball specialists, giving Cleveland a strong chance to secure the first possession and create an early scoring opportunity.

FEED. YOUR. LOCAL. BIG. MAN.@evanmobley | #LetEmKnow pic.twitter.com/7bbqjVEA8G

— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) October 30, 2026

I really like Evan Mobley at +450. He’s averaging 19.7 points per game while shooting 58.1% from the field, showing just how efficient he’s been offensively. Mobley’s ability to score around the rim makes him particularly dangerous on Cleveland’s opening possession, and his aggressive approach gives him a good chance to capitalize on an early opportunity.

With the Cavaliers likely to have the first crack at scoring, Mobley offers excellent value for one of the best bets to score first in the NBA today.

1. Jump Ball Stats

Your first job when betting on NBA first basket scorers is to determine who will have the first possession. Naturally, that team is more likely to get the opening shot and the opening basket. It’s not guaranteed, obviously, but we’re working with probabilities here.

That’s why the jump ball is so important. We make sure to check the projected lineups and figure out who will be jumping for the first ball. Then we go through the jump ball stats to figure out who’s more likely to win.

We based our projections on overall jump ball win percentage and head-to-head stats between the players in question. Once we have a favorite, we know the chances of both sides to have the opening possession.

As a rule of thumb, we strongly recommend only backing potential NBA first basket scorers from the team that’s more likely to win the jump ball. In theory, betting on a player from the other team could make sense, too, but the odds need to be extremely high.

2. Player First Basket %, First Shots Attempted, and First Shots Made

Teams tend to give certain players the first basket more often than others. Sometimes, that’s the highest usage player, but there could be other reasons. Certain players need some time to find their rhythm, while others are at their best from the first second of the game.

Either way, you should focus on the players most likely to get that first shot, especially if they tend to score more often than not.

3. Add More Context

After evaluating jump ball and first shot stats, it’s time to explore the bigger picture. Who will guard the players most likely to take the first shots, according to the data? How is the opposing team defending against players of this type?

For example, Jalen Brunson is usually a fantastic option for the first basket bet because he has some of the highest usage rates in the NBA on opening possessions.

However, he tends to drive or look for mid-range jumpers, so backing him against teams that defend the paint and the mid-range well is not the smartest idea. Especially if they also have a top perimeter defender to guard Brunson.

This is only a single example, so you can get the concept, but there are countless variations in the league. That’s why you should always consider the finer details before backing your NBA first basket predictions with a wager.