With less than a month of regular season action remaining, I am, we are assessing the latest 2023-24 NBA Championship odds at the best NBA betting sites and locking in our NBA Championship predictions. The season has been an ultra-competitive campaign, with several capable teams in the conversation to win the title. However, the top four have created some distance from the rest of the pack.
Check below for the latest 2023-24 NBA Championship odds and our picks for the newest title-winner below.
2023-24 NBA Championship Odds
The following NBA Championship odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| TEAM | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +210 |
| Denver Nuggets | +365 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +600 |
| Milwaukee Bucks | +750 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +1400 |
| Phoenix Suns | +2200 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +3000 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +3000 |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | +3500 |
| New York Knicks | +3500 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +3500 |
| Miami Heat | +3500 |
The Boston Celtics (+210) remain the odds-on favorite to win the 2024 NBA Finals. At +210, the Celtics’ price to win the title has an implied probability of 32.3%.
They had strong NBA Championship odds last season as well, but were tripped up by the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals. Will this year be any different for the Celtics?
The defending champion Denver Nuggets (+325) have the second-shortest odds to win this year. According to this price, the team’s implied chance of repeating as NBA champs is 23.5%.
NBA Championship Betting Favorites
Let’s evaluate the top betting favorites from the Eastern and Western Conferences. I highlight two teams from each conference, as I see them as the most likely finalists from their respective regions.
Boston Celtics (+210)
The Celtics have run away with the best record in the East, going 58-16 through their first 73 games. They’ve been an excellent team at home, with a record of 32-3, as well as winning their first 20 straight games at TD Garden.
Home-court advantage should prove to be incredibly valuable for the Celtics in the playoffs. Currently, they are up comfortably with the best record in the NBA. If the playoffs started today, they’d enjoy home-court advantage through the 2024 NBA Finals.
TD Garden isn’t a place where any opponent would like to go for a Game 7. At 32-3, the Celtics have won 91.4% of their home games. If the Celtics were to lose the No. 1 overall seed, their NBA Championship odds would regress. They aren’t as valuable without home-court advantage, so it’d be appropriate.
That being said, they’ve held up decently well, with a mark of 26-13 on the road. The three-headed combo of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Kristaps Porzingis makes this a tough team to beat from anywhere.
According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index rating, the Celtics are ahead of the next closest team by more than double1. Additionally, with a margin of victory of +11.4 points, the Celtics are well ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder’s +7.2 points2.
Are there any concerns with the Celtics as we approach the playoffs? In last season’s postseason, the Celtics needed to be more clutch and there are still concerns this season. In 2023-24, go-to star Tatum is connecting on just 25% of shots deemed important to the outcome of the game3.
If the Celtics’ recent playoff woes start to get into their heads, it could be a repeat where they struggle to finish strong in tight games.
Denver Nuggets (+325)
The Nuggets were the team to snap Boston’s winning streak at home, winning 102-100 behind 34 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists from Nikola Jokic. The two-time MVP is favored to win his third award this season, averaging insane numbers: 26.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 9 assists. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are having good seasons, while Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is struggling with his shot, but plays great defense.
The key to the Nuggets having success again in the playoffs is a healthy Jamal Murray.
The Nuggets likely wouldn’t have won the 2023 NBA Finals without Murray in the fold. The guard is currently dealing with knee inflammation and hasn’t been the healthiest player throughout his career. He managed to stay fit for their playoff run last season, but there are no guarantees in 2024.
With a record of 52-23, the Nuggets are in a dogfight with the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder for the best record in the West.
Although Jokic is a dominant force, the Nuggets are just sixth with an average win margin of +4.7 points and 14th with 114.6 points per game.
Los Angeles Clippers (+600)
The Clippers traded for a disgruntled James Harden early in the season, and it was a rough start as they lost their first five games with him. However, the Clippers’ veteran core figured it out and have vaulted up the NBA championship odds, winning 16 of 20 in one stretch. Recently, however, the Clippers have been up and down with a .500 record in their previous ten games.
The team is still isolation-heavy. Harden is ninth with 3.9 iso possessions per game, while Kawhi Leonard is tenth, with 3.6 possessions of iso per game4. Having said that, the Clippers have been showing more ball movement.
The offense is scoring an average of 116.1 points per game, with the 12th-most points in the NBA. They’re shooting 49.2% from the field and fourth, with a 38.6% three-point percentage.
As always with a veteran group like this, injuries are a worry. Westbrook is out, Leonard hurt his back against Minnesota, and Paul George has missed time this season. Also, Harden and George haven’t been known to light it up consistently in the playoffs, so that stigma will follow them. The Clippers have as much talent as anyone, but someone besides Leonard (who has two championships) has to step up.
Milwaukee Bucks (+1200)
From the second-oldest team to the oldest team in the NBA. An average age of 29.7 puts the Bucks at the top of the league. Nevertheless, the Bucks have two bonafide stars in Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.
The Bucks have had the wildest season of any NBA contender, trading for Damian Lillard in the offseason, which caused their NBA championship odds to skyrocket. Milwaukee were led by rookie head coach Adrian Griffin, but behind-the-scenes dysfunction caused the Bucks to fire Griffin, despite having a 30-13 record.
Outside of those two, however, it gets dicey for the Bucks. Khris Middleton isn’t the player he once was, while Bobby Portis and Brook Lopez are still solid, they’re not going to swing a title.
The Bucks need Middleton to prove he can play two months straight (he was bothered by an ankle injury in March), or else their stars will have to be incredible for the Bucks to win the title.
Although the Bucks acquired Lillard, they departed with defensive star Jrue Holiday. The defense has felt Holiday’s absence, as the Bucks are 22nd in the NBA, with 116.9 points conceded per game6. Milwaukee’s offense is capable of scoring the ball with the best of them in the NBA. However, woes on the defensive side do not bode well for the Bucks’ chances.
Best NBA Championship Dark Horse Bet: Oklahoma City Thunder (+1400)
The Thunder have been one of the best teams in the league all season. At 52-22, they are in a close battle with the Timberwolves and Nuggets for the No. 1 seed in the West. Currently, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a contender for the top individual honor in the league, according to the latest NBA MVP odds.
On top of that, Mark Daignault is the NBA Coach of the Year odds favorite. Chet Holmgren will likely cede the NBA Rookie of the Year to San Antonio’s Victor Wembanyama, but has fit in nicely to what the Thunder do.
Jalen Williams has emerged as a stud on both ends of the floor. OKC also leads the league in three-point percentage at 39.1%, but they’re selective about the shots they take, which is fantastic for such a young team.
Additionally, the Thunder rank high in several more key metrics: third in points per game (120.5), second in field goal percentage (49.9%), second in free throw percentage (83%), first in blocks per game (6.6), and steals per game (8.3)7.
And here is where the concerns come: the Thunder are really, really young. The roster is the eighth youngest in the NBA, and their core hasn’t experienced a deep playoff run before.
The team hasn’t been to the playoffs since the 2019-20 season and hasn’t won a series since the 2015-16 season. Granted, most of these players weren’t around for this period.
Still, the adage, “You have to lose before you win”, usually rings true in sports. I completely understand the concern surrounding this team, but I still think the odds of +1400 are too high for a roster this good.
Best NBA Championship Longshot Bet: New York Knicks (+3500)
The New York Knicks are clumped into a group with the Miami Heat (+3500), Golden State Warriors (+3500), and Cleveland Cavaliers (+3500) at sports betting sites.
These are teams that have talent, but are a piece or two away from solidifying their position as a top contender. The Knicks front office was active this season, as they pulled off a trade to acquire defensive specialist OG Anunoby from the Toronto Raptors.
The Knicks are a different team when Anunoby is on the floor for the Knicks. Since trading for Anunoby, the Knicks are 15-2 in 17 games when he is playing8.
Anunoby’s presence gives the Knicks the edge over teams with similar 2023-24 NBA Championship betting odds. Even without playing a full season in New York, the Knicks are second in ESPN’s NBA Power Index.
They’re working with one of the best defenses in the NBA. According to the latest numbers, the Knicks rank second in the NBA, with an average of 106.8 points yielded per game. If Anunoby started with the Knicks this season, they’d likely be ahead of the Timberwolves in first.
Of course, if he and Julius Randle do not return this spring, the Knicks will have a notable disadvantage, but at this price, they’re worth a flier. Anunoby has stronger odds of being back in time for the postseason, which would clearly provide a significant boost.
The Knicks’ NBA title odds are well worth a play at +3500. If Anunoby or Randle return to the starting lineup, this price won’t last long.
2023-24 NBA Championship Predictions
To wrap up our NBA betting preview, let’s make our 2023-24 NBA Finals prediction on which division the winner will come from, and then jump into our pick to win the NBA Championship:
NBA Championship Division Winner
| division | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Atlantic Division | +175 |
| Pacific Division | +260 |
| Northwest Division | +275 |
| Central Division | +550 |
| Southwest Division | +2200 |
| Southeast Division | +2500 |
In addition to betting on teams to win the NBA Championship, BetUS allows bettors to wager on which division the champion will come from. Per our latest 2024 NBA Finals prediction, the Atlantic Division is a good bet at +175 odds.
At +175, on the Atlantic Division, bettors can grab a share of the favored Celtics, Knicks, and 76ers. If Joel Embiid returns for the playoffs, and it’s likely, the 76ers aren’t going to be a bad team to have money on this spring.
As I noted, the Knicks are a sharp bet at +3500 odds, and my best NBA Championship pick includes another strong team in the Atlantic Division.
With that in mind, I suggest considering a bet on a team from the Atlantic winning the 2023-24 NBA Championship.
Who Wins The 2023-24 NBA Title?
The Nuggets have all the talent on their roster to repeat as champions. However, I have concerns that they will run out of steam after such a long run in 2023.
Only 13 teams have won consecutive back-to-back titles — the Golden State Warriors in 2017 and 2018 the most recent. There are so few teams to pull it off because of how tough it is.
As long as Tatum and company can get over their latest postseason failures, they should be in the best shape to win their first title since 2008. The Celtics are the most well-balanced unit in the NBA, with a top-5 team on offense and defensively.
For that reason, the Celtics are the only team with an average scoring margin in the double digits this season.
Additionally, the Celtics are a beast at home and on their way to having home-court advantage through the 2024 NBA Finals. If a team wants to beat the Celtics, they’ll need to be able to win at TD Garden, which has been an anomaly this season.
The Celtics need to get over their playoff demons, though they are the most well-equipped squad in the NBA to win a title. Consider the Celtics for your top 2023-24 NBA Championship pick.
