2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

2024 Super Bowl MVP Odds and Predictions

Following the final whistle at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, the Vince Lombardi Trophy will be awarded to the winner of Super Bowl 58. Also, the Super Bowl MVP will be announced shortly afterwards. We are breaking down the latest Super Bowl MVP odds at NFL betting sites and making our predictions.

The Super Bowl offers an array of betting opportunities for gamblers. If you want to bet on the coin toss, Usher’s Halftime Show performance, or even weird Super Bowl props, there is a wager for everyone on Super Bowl Sunday. For now, let’s dive into our top 2024 Super Bowl MVP predictions.

Super Bowl MVP Voting

The Super Bowl MVP voters are comprised of 16 NFL media members and fans. 80 percent of the votes come from writers and broadcasters, while the other 20 percent of the Super Bowl MVP vote is from football fans online.

The fan voting begins at the start of the fourth quarter. You don’t have to wait for the end of the game to cast your vote.

Super Bowl MVP Odds

The following Super Bowl MVP betting odds are courtesy of Bovada:

PLAYERSuper Bowl mvp ODDS
Patrick Mahomes+120
Brock Purdy+225
Christian McCaffrey+450
Travis Kelce+1000
Deebo Samuel+2000
Isiah Pacheco+2500

Compared to the Super Bowl 58 odds, the Super Bowl MVP odds are quite interesting. Despite the Chiefs being the underdog, Patrick Mahomes is favored to win Super Bowl 58 MVP at sports betting sites.

With that in mind, there is a disconnect between the odds to win Super Bowl MVP and the game. At +120 odds, Mahomes has an implied probability of 45.5 percent to win MVP of Super Bowl 58.

49ers’ QB Brock Purdy follows Mahomes with the second-best odds to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.

Where To Place Your Super Bowl MVP Bets?

For placing your Super Bowl MVP bets, there are several best football sites to lock in your wagers. From our experience betting on the Super Bowl, Bovada always delivers a superior experience.  As well as traditional wagers on the point spread and Over/Under, Bovada has the widest selection of Super Bowl prop bets.

Furthermore, this online sportsbook features a Super Bowl betting promotion where you can try to win prizes up to $130,000 in their free prop sheet contest.

Additionally, Bovada allows gamblers to place their bets while the Super Bowl is underway with their extensive live betting options. With reliable and safe banking methods, getting started at Bovada is simple and straightforward.

Also, for a limited time, score a 50% deposit match bonus of up to $250, or a 75% match bonus of up to $750 (if you deposit with Bitcoin) for first-time deposits at Bovada.

Bovada Sportsbook
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Super Bowl MVP Favorites

Before revealing our top Super Bowl 58 MVP pick, let’s analyze the favorites at the top of the Super Bowl MVP odds at Bovada:

Patrick Mahomes (+120)

Two-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes is the odds-on favorite to win his third award. As we said, Mahomes’ team is not the betting favorites to win Super Bowl 58, however.

Nevertheless, if the Chiefs win, there is a good chance that Mahomes will earn back-to-back MVP honors in the Super Bowl.

Mahomes hasn’t put up the same video game numbers that we’ve been accustomed to from him, but if the Chiefs win this game, he might have to play at an MVP level.

The Chiefs have relied heavily on their defense and running game to win games. Having said that, don’t discount the clutch plays he’s made in the NFL Playoffs. Mahomes has passed for 718 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions in three postseason games.

This was following a mediocre regular season for Mahomes. He finished the season with 4,183 yards, 27 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions on 67.2 percent completions[1].

In three Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes has passed for 738 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. He has a lackluster passer rating of 79.7 in the Super Bowl.

He saved the best for last year, when Mahomes completed 77.8 percent of his passes for three touchdowns and no interceptions versus the Philadelphia Eagles[2].

As long as Mahomes doesn’t play terribly against a tough 49ers’ defense and the Chiefs win, he will always be in the running for Super Bowl MVP.

Brock Purdy (+225)

Currently, the 49ers are a –122 betting favorite to win Super Bowl 58 on the moneyline. Regardless, Purdy is not viewed as a favorite to capture MVP honors.

Note that the Cowboys’ Chuck Howley is the only player in Super Bowl history to win MVP on the losing team. Since 1971, there hasn’t been another player to win Super Bowl MVP on the losing side[3].

With that in mind, the Chiefs will have to win for Mahomes to get the Super Bowl MVP.  Don’t consider betting on Mahomes to win MVP and the 49ers to win the game. For the 49ers to win, Purdy is going to need help from the playmakers that surround him.

If they help him out, there’s a decent chance that Purdy can go from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl MVP in just two seasons. Purdy is a byproduct of the offensive talent in San Francisco. This isn’t discrediting what Purdy has accomplished in his time as the 49ers’ starter, however.

Through the NFL Divisional Round and Conference Championship, Purdy has completed 61.4 percent of his passes for 519 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception for an 87.7 passer rating[4]. His ability to escape pressure was a big key in the win against the Lions.

Purdy’s decision-making under pressure will ultimately decide whether he is an MVP candidate. The Chiefs’ defense gets to the QB at an efficient rate. The game plan for the 49ers will involve getting the ball out of Purdy’s hands quickly.

He may very well record nice numbers, but Yards After Catch (YAC) is going to play a large role for the 49ers. Purdy will depend on Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle on short crossing routes. We will see if that warrants the Super Bowl MVP award.

Christian McCaffrey (+450)

As McCaffrey closes in on his first Offensive Player of the Year title at the NFL Awards ceremony, the 27-year-old running back is among the favorites in the Super Bowl MVP odds at Bovada.

With Purdy likely requiring heavy doses of McCaffrey to set up the pass, “CMC” will be able to have opportunities to shake loss away from the Chiefs’ defense. This season, the Chiefs have been just okay against the run.

They’ve yielded an average of 113.2 yards rushing per game for 17th in the NFL. The Chiefs’ defense has shown tremendous strides forward, but there are improvements to be made against the run.

The 49ers could win Super Bowl 58 by keeping things simple with McCaffrey and Samuel. McCaffrey is much more than just a traditional running back. He is a major threat to hit a home run as a pass-catcher, too.

McCaffrey has been difficult to keep out of the end zone in the NFL Playoffs. After rushing for two scores against the Packers, McCaffrey did it again in the NFC Championship versus the Lions.

The 27-year-old gained 1,457 yards on 5.4 yards per attempt in the regular season. He scored 14 touchdowns as a runner, along with seven as a receiver[5]. McCaffrey can line up anywhere on the field and give the Chiefs plenty of problems.

Much more than just a traditional running back, McCaffrey doesn’t have to depend on churning up yardage on the ground to win Super Bowl 58 MVP.

Who Is The Super Bowl MVP?

When it comes to the Super Bowl MVP, isolate your top picks and then wager on the best betting value at Super Bowl betting sites.

From our Super Bowl MVP analysis, McCaffrey is a top choice at +450 odds. Entering the Super Bowl with four touchdowns scored in the NFL Playoffs, he is in great form going into this matchup.

And, again, the Chiefs’ defense has not specialized in stopping the run. The Chiefs are great at rushing the QB and in the secondary but are vulnerable in the box. Look for McCaffrey to take advantage of lapses by the linebackers to find room to maneuver.

Purdy has been more than a game manager this season. However, the 49ers are likely going to ask him to allow Samuel and McCaffrey to shoulder the load. Passing into the teeth of the Chiefs’ secondary wildly is not a viable strategy.

McCaffrey should be the focal point of the 49ers’ Super Bowl. We like McCaffrey for Super Bowl 58 MVP. If you want to make a Chiefs pick for Super Bowl MVP, then you can’t go wrong with Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, Travis Kelce.

The Bet
Christian McCaffrey

Super Bowl MVP List

Let’s finish our Super Bowl MVP betting preview with a look at the previous 10 players to win the award[6]:

Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)LVII+120
Cooper Kupp (LA Rams)LVI+600
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)LV+190
Patrick Mahomes (KC Chiefs)LIV+110
Julian Edelman (New England Patriots)LIII+2000
Nick Foles (Philadelphia Eagles)LII+600
Tom Brady (New England Patriots)LI+160
Von Miller (Philadelphia Eagles)50+2500
Tom Brady (New England Patriots)XLIX+200
Malcolm Smith (Seattle Seahawks)XLVIII(Field) +2000


  1. Patrick Mahomes 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/3139477/patrick-mahomes

  2. Patrick Mahomes Career Super Bowl Stats | Stat Muse. Retrieved From “https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/patrick-mahomes-career-superbowl-stats

  3. Dallas Cowboys | Official Site of the Dallas Cowboys. Retrieved From “https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/roh-chuck-howley

  4. Brock Purdy 2023 Stats per Game – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.thesportsgeek.com/blog/nfl-conference-championship-odds/

  5. Christian McCaffrey Career Stats – NFL | ESPN. Retrieved From “https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/3117251/christian-mccaffrey”

  6. Super Bowl MVPs – Super Bowl History National Football League | ESPN. Retrieved From “Super Bowl MVPs – Super Bowl History – National Football League – ESPN”

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About the Author
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Kyle Eve
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Kyle Eve is a seasoned pro of The Sports Geek. Since joining the team in 2012, Kyle, has covered some of the biggest sporting events in the world. From the Super Bowl and World Series to March Madness, the NBA Finals, Kentucky Derby, and many more, Kyle has provided reliable analysis for millions of readers. After dedicating himself to hockey and football in high school, Kyle placed his first sports bet on his 18th birthday. Since then, he has spent his entire adult life devoting himself to becoming the best sports bettor and casino gambler possible. Kyle is from Windsor, ON, Canada

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