The opening 2024 World Chess Championship odds for the highly-anticipated showdown between Gukesh Dommaraju and Ding Liren are live!
The Indian won the FIDE Candidates 2024 tournament in Toronto to earn a spot in the World Chess Championship. A date hasn’t been scheduled for Gukesh vs. Ding, but the game is expected to be played in November or December.
Below, check out the latest betting lines at the sports betting sites, my analysis of the matchup, and my FIDE World Chess Championship 2024 predictions.
World Chess Championship 2024 Betting Odds
The following betting odds on the World Chess Championship are courtesy of 22Bet:
- Gukesh Dommaraju (-118)
- Ding Liren (-118)
The oddsmakers at 22Bet do not see advantage for Gukesh or Ding currently. Both grandmasters have the same -118 price of winning the World Chess Championship 2024. A $118 wager on either player would yield a profit of $100.
The odds suggest that this match is a coin flip between the rising star and the current world champion. It’s expected to be an epic showdown between two humble grandmasters from growing chess powerhouses in India and China.
World Chess Championship 2024 Format and Key Info
We don’t have a date and location for the World Chess Championship 2024, but we know the clash will start most likely in November. In theory, the match could also be delayed until December or early 2025.
The format for the World Chess Championship 2024 remains the same as last year’s event1:
- The World Chess Championship 2024 features 14 rounds.
- The first player to score 7.5 points or more becomes the World Chess Champion for 2024.
- Players cannot draw before Black’s 40th move.
- If the players are tied following the 14 rounds, the winner will be decided in a tiebreak (four rapid games with 25 minutes per side; first to 2 ½ points or more wins).
Time Control:
- 120 minutes per player for the first 40 moves.
- 60 minutes per player for the following 20 moves.
- 15 minutes per player for the remainder of the game.
Where To Watch The World Chess Championship 2024
The World Chess Championship 2024 can be watched for free online! Chess.com/TV will broadcast all rounds from the match.
Also, chess fans can watch the action unfold on Chess24’s Twitch and YouTube channels.
Gukesh vs. Ding Head-to-Head Record
Gukesh and Ding have faced each other in two classical matches in their careers. Both games took place at the Tata Steel Masters in Wijk aan Zee, with Ding winning both encounters.
Still, the 17-year-old Indian grandmaster earned a win versus Ding at the Freestyle Chess GOAT Challenge earlier this year2.
Classical Games:
- Ding 1 – Gukesh 0 (January 2023)
- Ding 1 – Gukesh 0 (January 2024)
Rapid/Exhibition Games:
- Gukesh 1 – Ding 0 (February 2024)
Gukesh Dommaraju – Can The Rising Star Stay Hot?
17-year-old Gukesh became the youngest FIDE Candidates champion in tournament history. Additionally, the teenager is now only the second Indian player to qualify for the World Chess Championship.
He was in unbelievable form to upset favorites Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi, and Hikaru Nakamura. Caruana entered as the tournament favorite but failed to win on the final day to force a tiebreak with Gukesh.
The Italian-American needed to beat “Nepo” in the final round to have a chance to win. However, the game was drawn, and Gukesh was named champion. He won with a final score of 9/14 to edge out Nakamura, Caruana, and Nepomniachtchi’s 8.5/14 to win as a +1020 underdog.
Gukesh had just an 8.9% implied probability of winning the FIDE Candidates 2024. Will this momentum carry over to the World Chess Championship?
The teenager runs well in stretches, so it will be interesting to see if he can maintain his top form later in the year. If he plays as well as he did in Toronto, Gukesh has a solid chance of building his growing legacy even more.
The soon-to-be 18-year-old won five matches and drew eight en route to the 2024 World Chess Championship. However, Gukesh has never beaten Ding in a classical format before, most recently suffering a loss in January.
Ding Liren – Will He Round Into Form?
Ding is the defending FIDE World Chess Champion after beating Nepomniachtchi in a tiebreak in the previous edition of the tournament. It was an evenly played match, with Ding exploiting a hole in the fourth rapid tiebreak to win the title.
I remind you that Magnus Carlsen conceded his championship, which opened the door for a new FIDE World Champion. Ding seized the moment to oust the Russian in a nail-biter in Kazakhstan. However, the native of Wenzhou, China, hasn’t been in his best form this year.
In the GRENKE Chess Playoffs, Ding came up short in a tournament that Carlsen prevailed in. The Chinese grandmaster lost twice to 19-year-old Vincent Keymer and also registered defeats against Daniel Friedman and Richard Rapport.
Ding hasn’t been at his best, but his overall game is strong, and he has significantly more experience than Gukesh. In the GRENKE Chess Playoffs, Ding had two draws against Carlsen in promising performances3.
There are a couple of major tournaments ahead for Ding to regain his form, including the Olympiad and Norway Chess. The two wins over Gukesh will also give him confidence for the upcoming match.
With months to get his mind focused, Ding’s World Chess Championship 2024 betting odds will likely improve by the time the match is played near the end of the year. There is plenty of time for Ding to put in the work and get on track.
World Chess Championship 2024 Predictions and Betting Pick
If the game was played right now, my predictions for the World Chess Championship 2024 would likely include a Gukesh win. When the Indian is hot, he is incredibly difficult to beat. The prodigy is playing with loads of confidence after upsetting a talented field in the FIDE Candidates 2024.
Congratulations to Gukesh D for his victory in the #FIDECandidates, securing his place as a challenger in the World Championship Match!🥳 We eagerly anticipate his participation in our #grandchesstour events!
Photo by Maria Emelianova, FIDE pic.twitter.com/I9FO5Wlq6A— Grand Chess Tour (@GrandChessTour) April 22, 2024
However, a lot can change between now and November. Gukesh won’t fall off by then, but six or more months for Ding is a godsend. On top of that, the Chinese player wasn’t even in his best form when he defeated Gukesh this past January.
In Gukesh’s eight wins in the Candidates, he didn’t defeat Caruana, Nakamura, or “Nepo”. They all gave him tough matches that finished with draws. He will be forced to beat a world-class talent in Ding at the FIDE World Chess Championship!
If they go to a tiebreak, Ding should have a big advantage in the rapid games. That may ultimately be the difference in what should be a competitive contest. It will be close, but I recommend backing Ding for your World Chess Championship betting pick.
Who Do You Think Will Win?
Do you agree with my World Chess Championship predictions? Do you believe that Gukesh can ride this momentum after capturing the FIDE Candidates title?
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Sources:
FIDE 2023-24 World Championship Cycle | World Chess Federation. Retrieved From “https://worldchampionshipcycle.fide.com/”
Dommaraju Gukesh/Ding Liren | ChessGames.com. Retrieved From “https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chess.pl?yearcomp=exactly&year=&playercomp=either&pid=158070&player=&pid2=52629&player2=&movescomp=exactly&moves=&opening=&eco=&result=”
Liren Ding Chess Games | 365chess.com. Retrieved From “https://www.365chess.com/players/Liren_Ding”
